November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[Lettucing Gutted]

I have a bad feeling even I might have gone too low!  Oh well what's done is done...  Another thing, I wonder if we might achieve the smallest fall from the September CET to the November CET on record?

 

What's the chances of November ending up warmer than May? Needs to be 10.9 or more. That's never happened before as far as I know. That would give 2015 a notable statistic.

We came very, very close to that in 1994.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[BornFromTheVoid]

I have a bad feeling even I might have gone too low!  Oh well what's done is done...  Another thing, I wonder if we might achieve the smallest fall from the September CET to the November CET on record?

 

We came very, very close to that in 1994.

 

The record for smallest September to November drop is from 1994 too, just 2.6C. As September 1994 was 12.7C, and this September was 12.6C, we need to equal the warmest November on record to achieve the smallest drop.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield big jump to 11.1C all depends on tonight's temperature for another rise or not.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 11th

 

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a minor thing, it was in 2005 

 

 

You're right, I need to pay more attention!

 

Anyway, minimum today is 7.8C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 14s, so we'll probably remain on 11.9C on tomorrows update (provisionally the joint mildest first 12 days of November on record).

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.6C to the 13th (8.5: +1.3)

11.5C to the 14th (10.1: +3.2)

11.5C to the 15th (11.3: +4.5)

11.5C to the 16th (11.5: +4.7)

11.4C to the 17th (10.2: +3.8]

11.4C to the 18th (10.9: +4.2)

11.4C to the 19th (11.3: +4.9)

11.3C to the 20th (10.3: +4.2)

11.1C to the 21st (5.9: +0.1)

 

Those cooler days forecast earlier in the week appear to be fading, with the outlook after tomorrow very mild once again. Even getting below 8C before corrections would likely require a November 2010 type end to the month.

[Milhouse]

Good grief look at those huge positive anomalies and yet the CET is still set to fall away gradually.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11C good chance of ending up milder than October which will be a first.

[Man With Beard]

No doubt I'll get murdered for saying this, but I really hope that we don't get a cold spell this month. It would be such a shame to have gotten this far with an exceptionlly high CET, to have it all be ruined in the last week. This month deserves to be the record mildest.

 

When we get to December the weather can do what it wants then, how about that?

Yes absolutely. 5 days in November reaching 19C and above widely - that's deserving of the record. Indeed the CET is being kept down by the two days at the beginning of the month where central areas were stuck under fog, but that certainly wasn't representative of the whole country where exceptional temperatures were reached in many places. I remember 1994 well and it wasn't nearly as spring like as this month has been. No, this month should get the record and by a mile.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I think this will be the first time ever that everyone has forecasted too low for the CET.  If we finish on 11C we will need a whopping 0.5C downward correction just to reach my guess!

Edited November 13, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Relativistic]

I think this will be the first time ever that everyone has forecasted too low for the CET.  If we finish on 11C we will need a whopping 0.5C downward correction just to reach my guess!

 

It may be, but everybody forecasting too high has definitely happened before (March 2013).

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 12th

 

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 6.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 9s, so a drop to 11.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.5C to the 14th (10.1: +3.3)

11.4C to the 15th (11.2: +4.4)

11.4C to the 16th (11.0: +4.2)

11.4C to the 17th (11.3: +4.9)

11.4C to the 18th (12.0: +5.3) [Record High: 12.2C]

11.5C to the 19th (11.6: +5.2)

11.3C to the 20th (7.7: +1.6)

10.9C to the 21st (4.0: -1.8]

10.6C to the 22nd (2.8: -3.0)

 

Hints of some cold weather into the last 3rd of the month, but well outside of anything reliable right now.

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS backed off the cold scenario somewhat but ECM still has it showing up on 22nd and 23rd, so our CET could be anywhere between 9.0 and 10.5 by 23rd and I would not even rule out a 7.5 to 8.0 finish despite all this warmth, if the cold digs in. If it's shallow and transient, probably something in the low to mid 9's.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 13th

 

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

One record has already fallen this month, namely the record number of name changes by a participant.

 

I would not worry about all forecasts being too low, at least one will be too high, maybe two or more.One wintry outbreak and 10+ will be off the table.

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 14th

 

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 7.7C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so we'll probably remain on 11.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.5C to the 16th (11.3: +4.5)

11.5C to the 17th (12.0: +5.6)

11.5C to the 18th (12.3: +5.6) [Record High: 12.2C]

11.6C to the 19th (12.7: +6.3) [Record High: 12.7C]

11.5C to the 20th (9.2: +3.1)

11.1C to the 21st (3.4: -2.4)

10.7C to the 22nd (2.7: -3.1)

10.5C to the 23rd (4.9: -0.9)

10.2C to the 24th (3.5: -2.4)

 

The cooler weather now on the verge of entering the reliable timeframe. It would need to last until the end of the month in order to drag the CET down below 9C. In the meantime, some more potentially record breaking mild days to contend with.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 10.6C should go up again tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

Assuming 11.5C to the 20th, what do we get if the last third averages 3C, 4C, 5C or 6C.

[DAVID SNOW]

Assuming 11.5C to the 20th, what do we get if the last third averages 3C, 4C, 5C or 6C.

 

Something close to my guess, and i win the annual cet compotition

[BornFromTheVoid]

Assuming 11.5C to the 20th, what do we get if the last third averages 3C, 4C, 5C or 6C.

 

2C = 8.7C

3C = 9.0C

4C = 9.3C

5C = 9.6C

6C = 9.9C

7C = 10.2C

8C = 10.5C

[Relativistic]

Just looking at the CET monthly data, it seems as if many of the mildest Novembers (i.e., 8.0C+) have come in pairs, or pairs with a year's gap.

 

1729: 8.1C

1730: 9.2C

 

1817: 9.1C

1818: 9.5C

 

1821: 8.6C

1822: 8.2C

 

1938: 9.4C

1939: 8.7C

 

1951: 8.5C

1953: 8.5C

 

1982: 8.0C

1984: 8.0C

 

2002: 8.5C

2003: 8.1C

 

2009: 8.7C

2011: 9.6C

 

2014: 8.6C

2015: ??

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Edited November 15, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[March Blizzard]

Just looking at the CET monthly data, it seems as if many of the mildest Novembers (i.e., 8.0C+) have come in pairs, or pairs with a year's gap.

1729: 8.1C

1730: 9.2C

1817: 9.1C

1818: 9.5C

1821: 8.6C

1822: 8.2C

1938: 9.4C

1939: 8.7C

1951: 8.5C

1953: 8.5C

1982: 8.0C

1984: 8.0C

2002: 8.5C

2003: 8.1C

2009: 8.7C

2011: 9.6C

2014: 8.6C

2015: ??

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Good spot. To put it in to context, how many 8C+ Novembers has there been?

Just noticed your link. From what I can tell, there's been 28 Novembers at 8C or above. 2015 is almost certain to be 8C+, so that makes 18 out of 28 of them bunched up within 2/3 years.

Edited November 16, 2015 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 15th

 

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The max yesterday of 14.8C seems too low to me. I checked xcweather a few times during the day, and everywhere within the CET zone was reading 15 or 16C, with a few spots nearby hitting 17C. I suppose it could have been several stations at 14.5C or something, rounding up to 15C, but still...