C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[Relativistic]

So a 9.0+C December is looking very likely at this stage. I think this sort of thing was only a matter of time. If we have other years at similar or even higher CET values to the same date as this year (1898, 2000, etc.), surely at some stage we were going to see a December that, instead of giving up mid-month, decided to go all the way and smash the record. This year looks like being the year. May 1833 may be about to lose its crown.

[pegg24]

When the January average CET forecasts comes up on here, going to be Interesting

to see what people put temperature wise  with how wrong we all have been in December me included. 

[reef]

Its worth noting that if we get to the 23rd and we're on 9.8C as predicted above, the remaining 68 days of winter only need to average 5.8C for it to be the warmest in the CET series.

The trend for January after a 7C December isn't too good either. 12 out of 13 Januarys have been above average following a 7C+ December and all but three of those were more than 1+C above the relevant 30 year average.

[March Blizzard]

It's crazy to think that this month has a very good chance at ending up warmer than March 2012 (8.3C) and for the most part that felt absurdly warm for March.

In a way I'm hoping that the current December record is obliterated, and we end up above 9.2C, the value for the warmest March on record. That would be a turn up for the books.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C  Should be rising from Tomorrow until Sunday.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, pegg24 said:

When the January average CET forecasts comes up on here, going to be Interesting

 

to see what people put temperature wise  with how wrong we all have been in December me included. 

 

At the moment, (unlikely to change!) I'm going for an Atlantic dominated January, possibly a contender for wettest of all time, and CET prediction of around 7.2C

[Roger J Smith]

It would be hilarious if there was a white Christmas during the mildest December on record, and that's going to be possible if the 12z GFS run verifies. I would agree with the 9.8 C estimate to 23rd from an earlier run, then it looks to be quite variable, a couple of days in the 2-5 C range, back up to near 10 C, then back down and up before the end (projecting the 31st from day 16). Would estimate 6.5 as the average for that eight-day period which gives an outcome of 8.9 C which might then be around 8.7 after corrections.

Anyway, Craig, I am going off to find back-door cold fronts, direct northerly blasts, freak ice releases into the Gulf stream, and everything else in the prop room to give you a run for your money. By the way, 1934, 1974, 2015 ... things are slowing down slightly.

[AderynCoch]

Another thing which really depresses me about this weather is how it always seems to get "locked in" (which never happens with weather I like) and confidently forecast to continue weeks in advance. We're not even half way through the month yet and the record looks like it's already gone. As staggering as it is disheartening.

John Allen Paulos famously said, "It would be highly unlikely for unlikely events not to occur", meaning that every now and then one should expect the exceptional. I however would submit that it would be highly unlikely for something this unlikely to occur (a sodding 9C CET December) - and yet occur it may well do. Trust this to happen with regard to mildness in December. Sod's Law rears its ugly head yet again. As exceptional for cold as December 2010 was, it always looked unlikely that it would break the record (never mind before mid-month).

[Timmytour]

One can hope that this mild November and December ends up delivering in 2016, as it did in 1853, a memorable winters month for the February at least.

My concern is that this looks more like 1974....  one of the warmest winters ever.  I'd forgotten that nearly three months ago I'd expressed this concern!

https://twitter.com/TimmyTour/status/646930463601369088
 

From March to September especially there was a pretty close alignement in CETs albeit with this year being warmer... The October of 1974 was cold whereas this year's ended up being warm....although it did give us some of the coldest temps we've had so far this side of summer!

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by Timmytour
cold not sold!

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Timmytour said:

One can hope that this mild November and December ends up delivering in 2016, as it did in 1853, a memorable winters month for the February at least.

My concern is that this looks more like 1974....  one of the warmest winters ever.  I'd forgotten that nearly three months ago I'd expressed this concern!

https://twitter.com/TimmyTour/status/646930463601369088
 

From March to September especially there was a pretty close alignement in CETs albeit with this year being warmer... The October of 1974 was cold whereas this year's ended up being warm....although it did give us some of the coldest temps we've had so far this side of summer!

 

I think you are reading far too much into this Timmy. There are a number of differences for a start as mentioned in that Twitter link there is a difference in the ENSO and that for me  instantly kills off trying to compare 1974-75 with now.

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎13‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 9:55 PM, Don said:

Well, looking at the CFSv2 outlook for the next few months, the remarkable mildness is only only going to continue.  I know some don't rate this model but it has been ultra consistent for months now with its exceptional mild signal for winter and so far, it's being proved correct.  Wouldn't be at all surprised to see that 70f recorded before winter's out.  I think Winter 2015/16 could well be a real eye opener.......

and what next?  30C in March and April and October?  40C in summer and September?  Worrying times!

16 hours ago, pegg24 said:

When the January average CET forecasts comes up on here, going to be Interesting

 

to see what people put temperature wise  with how wrong we all have been in December me included. 

 

Since even I look like being at least 0.5C to 1C too low I know what I'm gonna forecast. I am gonna forecast a warm month (not just January) 1.4C to 1.9C above the previous warm record!

Edited December 15, 2015 by IHaveNoTrueFriendsNow!

[Timmytour]

50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think you are reading far too much into this Timmy. There are a number of differences for a start as mentioned in that Twitter link there is a difference in the ENSO and that for me  instantly kills off trying to compare 1974-75 with now.

Hi WH.   Not saying the pattern will be exactly the same.  But rather expressing concern that there' are factors involved that serve to inhibit a pattern change.  It's like the high pressure pushing the jetstream to the north of us is at its most durable in our part of the hemisphere and resistant to the pushing down of any troughs

[Timmytour]

Little doubt that this December will end up being the warmest ever December.  But you have to go back over 40 years to find the previous warmest. indeed it will be the only December in the last 40 years to feature in the top five warmest Decembers

Going further into winter....Jan 2007  is the only winter that features in the top five warmest Januarys in the last 90 years

For February...while both 1990 and 1998 feature in the top 5,  the other three, including the top two warmest Februarys, all occurred over 145 years ago!

Edited December 15, 2015 by Timmytour

[Relativistic]

9 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Another thing which really depresses me about this weather is how it always seems to get "locked in" (which never happens with weather I like) and confidently forecast to continue weeks in advance. We're not even half way through the month yet and the record looks like it's already gone. As staggering as it is disheartening.

John Allen Paulos famously said, "It would be highly unlikely for unlikely events not to occur", meaning that every now and then one should expect the exceptional. I however would submit that it would be highly unlikely for something this unlikely to occur (a sodding 9C CET December) - and yet occur it may well do. Trust this to happen with regard to mildness in December. Sod's Law rears its ugly head yet again. As exceptional for cold as December 2010 was, it always looked unlikely that it would break the record (never mind before mid-month).

It very nearly smashed the record. The period 26th November to the 27th December had a CET of -1.5C, had the timing been correct (i.e. the cold spell nudged forwards a few days) then the record would have been obliterated. Looks like we are currently experiencing December 2010's anomalously above average cousin.

[Nick L]

Yes to say that Dec 2010 never looked likely to break the record is untrue. If it wasn't for that milder final few days it would have broken the record comfortably.

December 2015 is the anti-Christ to December 2010.

[BlueHedgehog074]

9 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Just think, the CET for December 2015 could turn out to be over 10°C warmer than that for December 2010. That's an impressive range for two months that are only five years apart.

That would be incredible should it happen.

Edit: Looks as though my 5.1*C CET guess this month could turn out to be really low.

Edited December 15, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Relativistic]

59 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Just think, the CET for December 2015 could turn out to be over 10°C warmer than that for December 2010. That's an impressive range for two months that are only five years apart.

Take a look at 1795 and 1796.

1795 was the coldest January (and month) on the CET record, at -3.1C.

A year later in 1796, January recorded a CET of 7.3C.

That's a range of 10.4C! In a year!

Edit:
At the time, January 1796 was the warmest January on the CET record, and it still stands at joint second with 1921. So in the space of a year the warmest and coldest January's on record were recorded. Staggering really.

They say our weather is beginning to swing from one extreme to the other, but it's happened all before!

Anyway, to keep this on topic, to beat this remarkable swing December 2015 would have to record a CET of 9.8C or higher. A tall order.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 14th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Daily record of 9.4 set in 2000

[Relativistic]

To add to my last post...

It gets crazier. February 1794 recorded a CET of 7.2C, the second highest on record for February at the time. So the swing from February 1794 to January 1795 is 10.3C. It's hard to imagine a series of Winters like 1794, 1795, 1796. Totally and utterly ridiculous.

Something else I noticed, which is more achievable for December's 2010/ 2015, is February's 1945/ 1947.

February 1945 was 7.1C, while February 1947 was -1.9C, a difference of 9C. For this to be beaten, December 2015 would have to record 8.4C, something which looks very much like being on the cards.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 7.2C, while maxima look like reaching about 13C, so an increase to 9.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS ha the CET at:

9.3C to the 16th (11.1: +6.5) [Record High: 10.8C]
9.5C to the  17th (12.8: +8.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
9.7C to the 18th ( 12.1: +7.7) [Record High: 11.8C]
9.8C to the 19th (12.7: +8.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
10.0C to the 20th (12.9: +9.2) [Record High: 11.1C]
10.0C to the 21st (9.7: +5.5)
10.0C to the 22nd (10.9: +6.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
9.9C to the 23rd (8.4: +3.7)
9.8C to the 24th (6.8: +2.1)
 

Slight downgrade for the 17th, but upgrades for the mildness/warmth elsewhere. The next 5 days could average 8C above average! After having previous latest date for a day with a CET >12.0C being December 12th, we could record 4 consecutive days >12.0C later than the previous latest date on record. Remarkable!

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 7.2C, while maxima look like reaching about 13C, so an increase to 9.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS ha the CET at:

9.3C to the 16th (11.1: +6.5) [Record High: 10.8C]
9.5C to the  17th (12.8: +8.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
9.7C to the 18th ( 12.1: +7.7) [Record High: 11.8C]
9.8C to the 19th (12.7: +8.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
10.0C to the 20th (12.9: +9.2) [Record High: 11.1C]
10.0C to the 21st (9.7: +5.5)
10.0C to the 22nd (10.9: +6.4) [Record High: 11.6C]
9.9C to the 23rd (8.4: +3.7)
9.8C to the 24th (6.8: +2.1)
 

Slight downgrade for the 17th, but upgrades for the mildness/warmth elsewhere. The next 5 days could average 8C above average! After having previous latest date for a day with a CET >12.0C being December 12th, we could record 4 consecutive days >12.0C later than the previous latest date on record. Remarkable!

We've long run out of superlatives to describe this spell I think.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Nick L

[reef]

43 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We've long run out of superlatives to describe this spell I think.

Indeed, 10.0C to the 22nd when the record warmest November is 10.1C says it all really.

9.8C to the 24th would mean only 2.5C would be required to beat the record. I think its a done deal now.

[Evening thunder]

5 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Another interesting point to make about this December is actually the large regional variation. For England and Wales it may well be on course to the mildest on record by some margin, but for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's actually been very close to average (maybe even a bit below). It just goes to show that the CET, which is often used as a good statistic to indicate monthly weather patterns, isn't always representative of the whole country. I actually look forward to seeing the Met Office anomaly maps at the end of this month.

This list shows the variation quite well http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html some northern sites not that much above average in comparison while some southern areas are even more anomalous than the CET.. Bournemouth (Hurn), Middle Wallop, and Yeovilton are all reporting 6.1C above the 1981-2010 average!

The CET looks like becoming pretty remarkable as shown by BFTV's posts, though as it is currently 4.1C above the 81-10 average, it looks as though southern counties could end up with an even more remarkable anomaly?

Edited December 15, 2015 by Evening thunder

[BornFromTheVoid]

Considering that the 10,1C November is a recent record and warmest by 0.6C, to be 0.5C above the previous November record adds some more perspective to things.

We'd have to go back to 1729 to find the last time there was less than 1.0C between the November and December records, then it was 8.1C and 7.5C. In 1730 there was a November of 9.2C, which opened the gap to 1.6C.

Edited December 15, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[summer blizzard]

19 hours ago, March Blizzard said:

It's crazy to think that this month has a very good chance at ending up warmer than March 2012 (8.3C) and for the most part that felt absurdly warm for March.

In a way I'm hoping that the current December record is obliterated, and we end up above 9.2C, the value for the warmest March on record. That would be a turn up for the books.

 

Agreed. I found March 2012 almost pornographic in terms of how perfect it was (maxima around 20C, stupid amounts of sunshine, no humidity) but it really highlights the difference between a large durinal range and the current cloudfest we have now.