C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 8.6C, while maxima look like reaching about 13C, so an increase to 10.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

10.4C to the 6th (12.0: +7.0) [Record High: 12.3C]
10.4C to the 7th (9.9: +5.1)
10.5C to the 8th (11.5: +7.1) [Record High: 12.1C]
10.1C to the 9th (6.8: +2.3)
9.9C to the 10th (8.3: +4.0)
9.5C to the 11th (4.9: +0.7)
9.0C to the 12th (4.6: +0.3)
8.6C to the 13th (2.6: -2.0)
8.1C to the 14th (2.7: -1.7)
 

A cool down looks likely after the 10th, but it's not quite close enough to be reliable.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just looking through the top 10 warmest November/December combinations, we get the following [Year: Combined CET(November...December)]

 

1994:  8.3C (10.1C....6.4C)
1852:  7.8C (7.9C...7.7C)
2011:  7.8C (9.6C...6.0C)
1710:  7.8C (8.0C...7.5C)
1953:  7.7C (8.5C...6.9C)
1821:  7.5C (8.6C...6.4C)
1974:  7.5C (6.8C...8.1C)
1828:  7.4C (7.4C...7.4C)
1806:  7.3C (7.8C...6.8C)
2006:  7.3C (8.1C...6.5C)

 

For first place this year, we'll need a December CET of 7.2C, while to make the top 10, we'd need 5.0C this month.

 

[Summer Sun]

10.1c to the 5th

4.9c above the 61 to 90 average

4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[March Blizzard]

On 2 December 2015 11:56:21, Summer Sun said:

9.3c to the 1st

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Just a thought, is this warmer than the figure for the 1st June? If so, has the first day of Winter ever been warmer than the first day of Summer in the same year?

Edit* Looks like we just missed out - 1st June was 9.5C.

 

Edited December 6, 2015 by March Blizzard

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9c

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

My 2.5 looks like it may just miss

 

my 7.1C looks too low, how could  I remember Atlantic 252 guess too low in a 'winter' month????????????? many will think

Edited December 6, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[BornFromTheVoid]

7 hours ago, March Blizzard said:

Just a thought, is this warmer than the figure for the 1st June? If so, has the first day of Winter ever been warmer than the first day of Summer in the same year?

Edit* Looks like we just missed out - 1st June was 9.5C.

 

Looking through the records, there has been 1 single year when the first day of winter was warmer than the first day of summer. This occurred in 1817, which had a CET of June 1st of 9.7C, and a CET on December 1st of 10.4C, a difference of +0.7C.

There has also been 1 year when they were equal. This was 1835, when both June 1st and December 1st were 10.4C.

On the other end of the spectrum, the biggest difference on record occurred in 1947, when June 1st was 20.8C and December 1st was -3.0C, giving a difference of 23.8C.

[Summer Sun]

10.5c to the 6th

5.3c above the 61 to 90 average

4.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 7.9C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 13s, so remaining on 10.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

10.6C to the 8th (11.4: +7.0) [Record High: 12.1C]
10.3C to the 9th (7.4: +2.9)
10.1C to the 10th (8.9: +4.6)
9.6C to the 11th (4.9: +0.7)
9.5C to the 12th (7.4: +3.2)
9.4C to the 13th (8.5: +3.9)
9.4C to the 14th (9.6: +5.2)
9.1C to the 15th (4.7: +0.1)
8.8C to the 16th (4.1: -0.5)

 

Provided we are on 10.5C on tomorrows update, the average CET to the 7th will be the mildest on record, beating 1898 (10.2C) and 1979 (10.1C).
Additionally, if we are on 10.1C to the 10th, we'll be the only year on record to have averaged above 10C for the first 10 days (1979 averaged 9.9C).
 

[Weather-history]

On 6 December 2015 at 19:03:13, BornFromTheVoid said:

Looking through the records, there has been 1 single year when the first day of winter was warmer than the first day of summer. This occurred in 1817, which had a CET of June 1st of 9.7C, and a CET on December 1st of 10.4C, a difference of +0.7C.

 

If it was to be any year, it had to be 1817, that was one of the wackiest years ever. 

[Evening thunder]

If the GFS 00z happened to be close to the mark surely we'd be challenging the record? After some slightly cooler stuff mixed in before, the mild just keeps on coming though FI which ends with uppers reaching 10C and surface temps widely up to 14/15C as we approach Christmas..

 

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 7th

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average

4.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

10.6c to the 7th

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average

4.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Still rising!! Jeepers!! Outrageous temperatures this week (and in sunshine too)! And they're not done with either. We'd need a 2010 style end to the month just to get back to average!

[Summer Sun]

10.7c to the 8th

5.6c above the 61 to 90 average

5.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

Wow it's slightly higher than expected today, really remarkable to be so far above average after 8 days of the month. Today actually feels really cold here despite the fact that it's 10C and above average- it just goes to show how mild the first week or so really has been.

[reef]

A mean of 2.4C is required now just to get to the 1981-2010 average by month's end.

It has been a very unusual Autumn and start to winter temperature-wise, getting progressively milder compared to average on the whole as the time progressed. Its probably similar to getting an 8C March, 8C April and sub-10C May in spring followed by a 2012-esque start to June.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 3.4C, while maxima look like being in the low 10s, so a drop to 10.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

10.1C to the 10th (8.4: +4.1)
9.8C to the 11th (7.3: +3.1)
9.6C to the 12th (7.6: +3.4)
9.5C to the 13th (8.5: +3.9)
9.5C to the 14th (9.5: +5.1)
9.5C to the 15th (8.9: +4.3)
9.5C to the 16th (9.7: +5.1)
9.6C to the 17th (10.6: +6.2) [Record High: 11.6C]
9.8C to the 18th (12.7: +8.3) [Record High: 11.8C]

The very mild conditions now look set to continue without a break. The warmest any December has been to the 10th is 9.9C, in 1979, so we're very likely to beat that. The warmest any December has been to the 15th is 9.2C in 1898, so we also have a good chance of beating that. 
Mildest December (>8.1C) and mildest November/December combination (Dec >7.2C) on record still possible.

[Singularity]

Well, that's me stuffed for the year then 

Why couldn't this have started in January 

 

My mistake was expecting a typical El Nino type Dec for some reason despite plenty of evidence that we're ahead of the usual progression by a month or so, placing us in balmy weather territory - though even that doesn't quite account for what we've seen so far this month.

A possible savour would be increased amplification of the pattern to bring about a UK high with cold air pooling at the surface (never mind a northerly or easterly!). Yes, I'm thinking about tonight's ECM det. run, though even that has the high getting pushed back southeast by day 10 with balmy air returning in earnest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

At first I thought that those saying that this may be the mildest December on record were just be a bit dramatic, but now I'm starting to question that...

Ay, me most likely, although my CET 'guess' is CRAP 7.1C, how can LW252 the ultimate westerly believer can guess too low

suppose I thought the jet would be further south

Edited December 9, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[March Blizzard]

Never thought my 7.2C guess could be significantly too...low!

I'm looking for a final CET of 9.3C, beating the warmest March on record (9.2C).

Would it be foolish to rule even that out?

 

 

[Scorcher]

This situation is so interesting as I was looking at the rankings of the warmest months that someone had posted a week or two ago when comparing November to past months- and I commented on the fact that we hadn't had a recent exceptionally mild December (in the top 5 to 10), which suprised me. 

So it could be argued that this exceptionally mild December is well overdue. Of course there have been mild ones, but nothing close to record breaking recently.

[Nick L]

If this mild dross is going to continue it might as well break some records in the process, at least I can console myself in that!

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Yes, I think December 1988 was the last "very mild" December, so you could say that we are due one. I'd be quite surprised if this month doesn't make the top 10.

One thing I never understand though, is why people always call exceptional mildness in winter "boring". Technically having a December that's in the top 5 for warmth is really just as interesting as one in the coldest 5.

Most might not like it, but it doesn't mean it's boring.

It depends what accomanpies it. December 1988 for instance was tedious. Cloudy and not a lot happening. 

[Timmytour]

It seems highly likely that this year will join a select band of just six other years in which combined November and December CETs reach at least 15C. (1994 is the only one over 16C and nearly a whole 1C higher than the next nearest!)

Of these 1953 would give us most hope of some wintry weather to follow, although the February that followed 1852 was particularly cold.

After 1994 and 2011 this would be the third such occasion in just 21 years.  Prior to 2011 you'd need a period of at least 132 years to find three such occasions
 

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 9th

5.3c above the 61 to 90 average

4.9c above the 81 to 10 average