Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

On a similar theme, but more sensible...

Quote

https://archive.is/253zB

Temporary road to replace washed away section of A93 'could be in place next week'

A temporary road to replace a washed away section of the A93 could be in place next week.

Part of the A93 at Crathie was washed away by floods last week, preventing access to Ballater and leaving residents cut off.

uthorities in Braemar have now confirmed that they hope a temporary road can be built next week to replace the washed away section.

The temporary road will be put in place to improve access to and from Braemar.

Jim Savage, chief executive of Aberdeenshire Council, told the BBC on Monday that repairs to Invercauld Bridge should also help ease the problems.

Just in time for the skiing. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by scottish skier

[snowy owl]

Its a dry day!!! now that is news lol

I have been lurking around but not logged in lol for weeks watching and trying to read the charts and keeping up to date in our wee scottish thread as well as the MT! Such an amazing period of model watching and just shows how complex our weather on earth is. Keeping everything crossed for some fantastic developments today.

[peborant]

Hello guys, 

Impressive model outputs this morning. We could all do with a good northerly to bring some frost and brightness but do not worry my central belters as I am convinced that if things come to fruition we would see some of the white stuff too.

 

Some rather distressing December stats, which is the first complete month ever recorded at the Dollar Academy (and boy, what a month!): 

Average temp: 6.8

Max temp: 14.2

Min temp: -3.8 (however I recorded -6.7 on a sensor placed at 1.5m over grassed roof, clearly the fact that the station is sitting on a roof is not good when it comes to minimum temperatures especially)

Total rainfall: 287.2mm (wowzers) 

18 days with a max temp of or over 10C

3 air frosts measured

3 days of falling snow (believe it or not, I suppose it's still Scotland)

 

 

Really looking forward to some proper winter weather although we will feel it when it comes! It is a waiting game now. 

Best

 

[Stormeh]

Some really fantastic looking charts this morning, it is looking like we may well be going into the freezer from next week!

Most important of all is that the Atlantic is going to be cut off and we will get plenty of DRY and settled weather to help the flood affected areas!

[blitzen]

4.7c/4.1c/SE.   Still very dark but at least it's DRY!   Orgasms  aplenty in the MOD thread I see.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Blitzen

[SW Saltire]

25 minutes ago, peborant said:

Hello guys, 

Impressive model outputs this morning. We could all do with a good northerly to bring some frost and brightness but do not worry my central belters as I am convinced that if things come to fruition we would see some of the white stuff too.

 

Some rather distressing December stats, which is the first complete month ever recorded at the Dollar Academy (and boy, what a month!): 

Average temp: 6.8

Max temp: 14.2

Min temp: -3.8 (however I recorded -6.7 on a sensor placed at 1.5m over grassed roof, clearly the fact that the station is sitting on a roof is not good when it comes to minimum temperatures especially)

Total rainfall: 287.2mm (wowzers) 

18 days with a max temp of or over 10C

3 air frosts measured

3 days of falling snow (believe it or not, I suppose it's still Scotland)

 

 

Really looking forward to some proper winter weather although we will feel it when it comes! It is a waiting game now. 

Best

 

Well done for keeping a recording of everyday. If i was still based at home (or just somewhere consitently for a year) then i would also do so.

Waiting for the met office charts that CMD usually links me too hint hint

However from the 'western Scotland data for the December just gone....

days with rainfall >1mm = 28 (lol)

rainfall - 420mm (i'd be surprised if i wasn't higher than this. They were predicting 150 just from that one event at months end) 

air frosts  - 3.7... Well i remember 1 proper one (think it was -2c and another at -0.3c. Pathetic)

anomaly of max temps was about 3c. Sounds about right... The max was always 8-12c, one day we were sitting just above freezing all day but mild air moved in before 12am so the 'max' for that day was up at 7c

 

i'm feeling pretty confident January could be very different! 

Drier than average, snowy, colder than average by hopefully a bit and sunnier than average with lots of frost. 

Perhaps wishful thinking but i like our chances. Maybe not 2010 (although some are already getting carried away in the MOD) but it's a possibility. Form horse being frequent cold surges followed by slight relaxes in the cold, hopefully will little damage to the snow cover.

frankly, after that 'permanent October' i'd be happy to just see some snow....

[mardatha]

Not bloody dry here then!!!! Still pelting doon. Actually it starting to look sleety- but that might be my eyes, I can't reach the thermometer and hubby is oot.

Edited January 6, 2016 by mardatha

[peborant]

17 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

Well done for keeping a recording of everyday. If i was still based at home (or just somewhere consitently for a year) then i would also do so.

Waiting for the met office charts that CMD usually links me too hint hint

However from the 'western Scotland data for the December just gone....

days with rainfall >1mm = 28 (lol)

rainfall - 420mm (i'd be surprised if i wasn't higher than this. They were predicting 150 just from that one event at months end) 

air frosts  - 3.7... Well i remember 1 proper one (think it was -2c and another at -0.3c. Pathetic)

anomaly of max temps was about 3c. Sounds about right... The max was always 8-12c, one day we were sitting just above freezing all day but mild air moved in before 12am so the 'max' for that day was up at 7c

 

i'm feeling pretty confident January could be very different! 

Drier than average, snowy, colder than average by hopefully a bit and sunnier than average with lots of frost. 

Perhaps wishful thinking but i like our chances. Maybe not 2010 (although some are already getting carried away in the MOD) but it's a possibility. Form horse being frequent cold surges followed by slight relaxes in the cold, hopefully will little damage to the snow cover.

frankly, after that 'permanent October' i'd be happy to just see some snow....

Well in all fairness it's not me keeping it but the fantastic weather station that school bought  

That proper air frost you're on about happened on 13th December which was the only day with an average below 0 (-0.3) for us but yes as you are saying milder air made an appearance during the later part of the evening and so the max for that day was 3.3C at 23.59 but for all practical purposes I would consider it an ice day like winter should be with frost lingering all day under blue, clear skies.

When the front arrived, that was when it was RAINING at all levels at 0C but snowing heavily in parts of the Highlands at 1C. Frustrating times lol

Edited January 6, 2016 by peborant

[Guest]

The charts are defo starting to play ball, I'd take the GFS even if it wasn't overly snowy at least it wouldn't be mild.

SWS: My laptop is fried so you''ll need to do some digging, or wait for me to find the links later on.

Edit: The maps aren't up yet.

2nd Edit: The station data isn't up yet either, so I am guessing the regional stats aren't up.

Edited January 6, 2016 by CatchMyDrift

[SW Saltire]

31 minutes ago, peborant said:

Well in all fairness it's not me keeping it but the fantastic weather station that school bought  

That proper air frost you're on about happened on 13th December which was the only day with an average below 0 (-0.3) for us but yes as you are saying milder air made an appearance during the later part of the evening and so the max for that day was 3.3C at 23.59 but for all practical purposes I would consider it an ice day like winter should be with frost lingering all day under blue, clear skies.

When the front arrived, that was when it was RAINING at all levels at 0C but snowing heavily in parts of the Highlands at 1C. Frustrating times lol

Fair enough. 

Well maybe but the only real frost was actually new years eve. 

Remember i'm talking about home so Dumfries. Not Stirling. Stirling fairly (slightly) better as usual. 

However, frosts were few and far between regardless of where you live (excluding the highlands).

i hope that changes soon!

[Summer Sun]

Amber rain warning out again for Central, Tayside & Fife & Grampian

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

[Ross B]

Whilst we look at next week for cold and snow, the meto text forecast for lothians and borders isn't exactly mild...

 

Tonight:

Some drier weather during early part of the night but rain breaking out later with snow on higher ground. A cold night with fresh to strong southeasterly winds. Minimum Temperature 2°C.

Thursday:

.Rain becoming persistent and heavy during morning with snow on higher ground. Snow possible to lower levels then becoming drier later in afternoon. A cold day with winds becoming light. Maximum Temperature 5°C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

A cold few days with bright spells and scattered showers. Showers falling as snow on higher ground and even snow to lower levels in the heavy showers. Lighter winds.

Updated at: 0331 on Wed 6 Jan 2016

[Richard Taylor]

Appears all is sweetness & light again in the MOD after the upgrades this morning. Looks like a change is afoot

Meanwhile.... rain, rain rain again

 

Has the sun been switched off here?

 

[Kayemill]

12 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Whilst we look at next week for cold and snow, the meto text forecast for lothians and borders isn't exactly mild...

 

Tonight:

Some drier weather during early part of the night but rain breaking out later with snow on higher ground. A cold night with fresh to strong southeasterly winds. Minimum Temperature 2°C.

Thursday:

.Rain becoming persistent and heavy during morning with snow on higher ground. Snow possible to lower levels then becoming drier later in afternoon. A cold day with winds becoming light. Maximum Temperature 5°C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

A cold few days with bright spells and scattered showers. Showers falling as snow on higher ground and even snow to lower levels in the heavy showers. Lighter winds.

Updated at: 0331 on Wed 6 Jan 2016

Just had a look at ours and it's showing a good few Snow symbols through to Tuesday then I would guess much colder but more than likely drier here.

Not Mild at least.

[moffatross]

21 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

Meanwhile.... rain, rain rain again

Has the sun been switched off here?

I have the deepest sympathy and have been thinking much the same for the last few months. But I can assure you that it is still up there, and has been flirting with finally showing itself to Moffat the last hour or so in between the spells of drizzle.

[snowidea]

Just had a look at falkirk on the met o app I have on my phone and not a snowflake in sight 

Still the weather pro app does show some snow, will wait and see what we get.

TBH we seem to get more snow here when it's not forecast rather than when it is.

Mainly hoping for a change from rain, so all affected by the floods etc get a chance to dry out a bit.

Edited January 6, 2016 by snowidea

[Northern Strath]

1 hour ago, Ross B said:

Whilst we look at next week for cold and snow, the meto text forecast for lothians and borders isn't exactly mild...

Indeed Ross, similar story here. Currently 2.5C and a chill in the wind. Surely we'll see temps below -10c overnight for some parts in to next week? especially once there is some snow cover

Glad the model thread seems happy, that place has had enough glorious failure that they should think about following the Scottish football or rugby team, expert level punishment in pursuit of enjoyment 

 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ok, I need 2 t-shirts when outside now for brief periods. 1 isn't enough.

That's a good sign for winter coming.

[Stormeh]

This got posted in the MOD thread, it's so funny 

Rob McElwee loves the cold!

 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Kayemill said:

Just had a look at ours and it's showing a good few Snow symbols through to Tuesday then I would guess much colder but more than likely drier here.

Not Mild at least.

I don't ever put much faith in the Met-O automatic forecasts, but I would take Sunday's for here. Six hours of sleet, then nine of heavy snow followed by six of light snow. It shall be called "winter" lol 

[NorthernRab]

Well I see the model output thread has gone into meltdown. Should mention that these northerly setups, which we'll need to watch over the next few days to firm up the details, tend to deliver much for Scotland than the fabled 'beasterlies' that are so often chased on the model thread.

 

Northerlies can deliver so much but it's best to maintain some restraint so as not to get too disappointed when, on any given day of the spell, it's only an ice day with a few inches of snow rather than something extremely rare. the next week we'll need to not only keep an eye, but also to keep the heid, so to speak. 

Edit: who am I kidding, I'm preaching largely to the converted here!

Edited January 6, 2016 by NorthernRab

[Zerouali lives]

4 hours ago, Richard Taylor said:

Appears all is sweetness & light again in the MOD after the upgrades this morning. Looks like a change is afoot

Meanwhile.... rain, rain rain again

 

Has the sun been switched off here?

"afoot" being the correct term since that's how much snow could be lying in Aberdeen by next weekend!

Fantastic charts after virtually 3 years of snowless weather in Aberdeen - March 2006 springs to mind regarding next week...

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Zerouali lives

[Ravelin]

4 hours ago, Richard Taylor said:

Has the sun been switched off here?

It was last seen floating down the Dee/Don and out into the North Sea.

Doesn't seem to have been quite as wet a day here as the last few but I'll check the rainfall measurement when I get home.

This afternoon's GFS 12Z could well be 'coldie' weather porn. If anything close to that actually happens we'll all be seeing cold next week, and many of us will be seeing snow.

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It was last seen floating down the Dee/Don and out into the North Sea.

Doesn't seem to have been quite as wet a day here as the last few but I'll check the rainfall measurement when I get home.

This afternoon's GFS 12Z could well be 'coldie' weather porn. If anything close to that actually happens we'll all be seeing cold next week, and many of us will be seeing snow.

Aye, "textbook weather chart porn" was my thought looking at the GFS. Let's see what the ECM and UKMO spit out before the ramping can get into full swing

Edit: 12z UKMO out and looking good. Shows you how long it is since I've done any proper chart watching since I didn't know it would already be out!! I can see where the Met-O are getting their snow from on Sunday now  

Edited January 6, 2016 by CatchMyDrift

[Stormeh]

The ECM is fantastic!

All the models now agree on a potentially great cold spell!

So here it goes.......................

Bring on the cold! (and snow)