Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I hate to say this, but I have little faith in the long-range, global pattern prognostications of either Stewart or Tamara, well-intentioned though they are.

I never have any idea what they're talking about, but it sounds great.  

To be fair, GP gets paid to do it professionally, so I alway pay attention. Let's hope his atmospheric torpedo hits the mark.

 

[Chris K]

2 hours ago, snow freak said:

basically long term forecasting is guess work and even the most avid forecaster cannot predict what the weather will do further than even 5 days in advance so pretty much a pointless task for anyone to undertake.

Guess work? Pointless task to undertake?

Long range weather forecasting is an extremely difficult task and involves much analysis across many different models, analogues, studies, pattern matching..the list goes on! It is very detailed science and to be honest it is a little insulting to label it as that.

The only reason people start labelling long range forecasts wrong, pointless or 'guess work' is because they refuse to accept they are not to be fully relied upon and taken at face value. They are meant as a scientific guide of overall patterns that are more/less likely to be in place within a certain time period. Think of it as probabilities of the possible emerging weather patterns, rather than "these pressure heights will sit there as the chart showed a month ago."

The small scale developments that happen during the here and now is what they won't generally pick up that far in advance, and whilst these small changes could drastically affect our surface weather over the UK, you generally find the overall patterns across the hemisphere are very close to the forecasts. It almost certainly will end up different to what was said 1-3 months ago, but I would have thought many on here would realise the science of meteorology and forecasting of weather, especially for the UK, is an extremely complex and chaotic beast.

People are hitching a ride on blaming long term forecasts not coming to fruition, just because a single cold spell is not likely to be as good as some models suggested... The overall pattern remains similar across the hemisphere.

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Chris K

[JoeShmoe]

In the meantime it's snowing heavily in southern Scotland ...

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

constant downgrades by bbc for sunday / monday

gone from snow and a low of -2c to rain and a low of 2c

a low of 2c is above average for here.

rapidly turning into a none event 

Patience required, I was not aware it started until Tues/Wed anyway.Let the event start.Colder air starts advancing down the UK Tuesday i believe.

[Lake District Blizzards]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Patience required, I was not aware it started until Tues/Wed anyway.Let the event start.Colder air starts advancing down the UK Tuesday i believe.

Exactly, it keeps getting put back and back and then before you know it, it never gets here and its all over before its started

[Azazel]

but James Madden says it will be the one of the coldest spells for 50 years.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

 

God I hate that bellend.

 

 

[Chris K]

11 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

Exactly, it keeps getting put back and back and then before you know it, it never gets here and its all over before its started

Unfortunately there are so many things we need to see go right, the likelyhood is, it will get pushed back/won't appear or not snow in someones backyard but will 400 miles North.

We are a spec relative the the size of the continents and as I said above...the smallest, sudden changes can cause us to have completely different surface weather conditions.

Things could switch back more positive just as quick..although admittedly I don't seem to remember as many times that it has!!

Edited January 8, 2016 by Chris K

[Daniel*]

53 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

constant downgrades by bbc for sunday / monday

gone from snow and a low of -2c to rain and a low of 2c

a low of 2c is above average for here.

rapidly turning into a none event 

Cold spell has not even arrived by then - cold conditions filtering down UK on Tuesday.  

Monday according to the UKMO.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[cheeky_monkey]

4 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Cold spell has not even arrived by then - cold conditions filtering down UK on Tuesday.  

what cold spell...all I can see is 4 days of +6c days before we are back into double digits again...damp squib more like

[Timmytour]

Bit confused..... A poster quoted Ian Brown wannabee Shugga Ice on the model thread......and then IDO responded as if he was being addressed...... are they one and the same?

[petewaugh]

56 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

In the meantime it's snowing heavily in southern Scotland ...

Very heavy snow here (between Moffat and Broughton on A701). Huge flakes!

[griff74]

29 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what cold spell...all I can see is 4 days of +6c days before we are back into double digits again...damp squib more like

The one being forecast by the Met Office.

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Friday 22 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway around the middle of next week which will most likely last into the weekend across much of the UK. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times in the north, but also perhaps in the south too. Temperatures will be below average with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. As we go through the following week it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

And this -

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2016/cold-weather?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by griff74

[feb1991blizzard]

As posted in other thread, areas of low heights now engaging each other near Southern Greenland, cut off high - absolute disaster - the runs even worse - kin gutted

[LeeSnowFan]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

As posted in other thread, areas of low heights now engaging each other near Southern Greenland, cut off high - absolute disaster - the runs even worse - kin gutted

but it could change again in tonights runs and go back to what we want

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

but it could change again in tonights runs and go back to what we want

Yes but even the UKMO buggers it as soon as 120 now, no U-turn now I'm afraid, we both might see lying snow next week but -6c uppers and 2 inches of slush doesn't cut it anymore, the last solar minimum raised the bar.

[K9]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but even the UKMO buggers it as soon as 120 now, no U-turn now I'm afraid, we both might see lying snow next week but -6c uppers and 2 inches of slush doesn't cut it anymore, the last solar minimum raised the bar.

So close.....but yet so far.....gutted!!...at least i enjoyed those charts for a couple of days!!!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've not been following the models for very long, but surely a 180 degree change (almost straight northerlies to, on the 12z GFS for next Saturday, a southerly straight from North Africa) must be rare within 24-36 hours?  What on earth could be causing the models to change so dramatically?

[Southender]

My mood right now. Hey ho, we have a good 4-5 days of cooler weather to look forward to and it should become drier at least. But the hunt for proper cold and snow moves on...GFS again kicking us in the balls. But when it smells a rat unfortunately its usually correct.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Shrimper

[Karl83]

Such a let down... As soon as the GFS started showing that Azores Low coming towards the UK, I had a very bad feeling we were going to be let down.

We still have a week to go though so who knows!

[The PIT]

Mmm moved back to Wednesday now. I now think 40/60 of this actually coming off now. If it moves back again tomorrow I think it'll be dead in the water.

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I've not been following the models for very long, but surely a 180 degree change (almost straight northerlies to, on the 12z GFS for next Saturday, a southerly straight from North Africa) must be rare within 24-36 hours?  What on earth could be causing the models to change so dramatically?

They cannot handle it when major changes are on the horizon. They never have imo.

That doesnt mean we're suddenly going to flip to a v cold and snowy picture cone this time next week either.

Just a case of waiting to see whether the flipped coin lands on heads or tails.

[Evening thunder]

So according to the GFS the outlook changes from northerlies and a Greenland high, to south/SW winds and another bloody Eurohigh.. lol. I suppose that will be correct then..

Edited January 8, 2016 by Evening thunder
So my post makes sense

[igloo]

say goodbye to winter if the GFS is right another euro high forming just like december just shows how rare a greenland hp is the models had it nailed the last two days now it has vanished typical

[chicken soup]

This was always destined to be a let down....dosent matter what the experts in the mod thread say...until its backed by the meto with all their secret models and data i refuse to believe....also good to see ian brown back on the forum under the guise of syrnix.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

They cannot handle it when major changes are on the horizon. They never have imo.

That doesnt mean we're suddenly going to flip to a v cold and snowy picture cone this time next week either.

Just a case of waiting to see whether the flipped coin lands on heads or tails.

Seems reasonable.  I see IDO in the models thread reckons this tropical storm might be rearranging the NH pattern if, as seems likely, it heads-out of the Subtropical Jet and gets itself into the Polar Jet, but that surely can't explain why the troposheric vortex suddenly appears to be reformed and powerful again in Fi?