Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cyclonic happiness]

LMFAO the cold spell is being killed off from both ends as I type. How the hell can all the models practically agree, and then flip 3 days before the first cold air was about to arrive, to bloody south-westerlies. Beggars belief. I'm stained glass windowing really Tuted off this morning.

The way it's going we'll probably only get a frost (probably only a ground frost too) and I have to tell people at work I was wrong.  I really should know better shouldn't I? 

[cyclonic happiness]

I hope this is a damn wobble

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last nights 18Z was start of a new trend, now ECM on board, I normally rate GFS over ECM anyway, but this time certainly true

Just average January weather really for the south, 6C maxes, maybe some sun, bit of rain before turning wet/back to square 1 on Sat 16th Jan

[Timmytour]

On 30 December 2015 at 7:10 PM, Timmytour said:

1955 is a good year to look at for those looking for a cold first 3 months  to follow a mild Nov and Dec......

Fascinating to look back at the model discussions around this time last year.  We know what happened, and yet it seems there was more optimism about getting something decent in the way of wintry then then there was this year  (especially for those down south)

While there have been outbreaks of optimism this year, it would seem that the outlook is worse.....yet I find that over the past few days I've become a lot more optimistic.  i have a little sense of things almost falling into place, failing back out of place but then coming back to try again, much as happened in Jan 2013. 


My prediction..... 4th Jan....GFS and ECM are going to start coming together to show us something special in FI and drive the excitement on here sky high..... after some dips the models will consolidate around 10th Jan with the weather itself starting to deliver about the 14th........it's coming!!!

 

Definitely one of those "dips" this morning I feel.....but things will turn around again within a couple of days

It's amazing to compare the sense of despondency in the model thread this morning with how things were only a week ago where there was supposedly nothing but the same mush November and December had delivered to look forward to....and Fergie had "killed" January

[joggs]

Just hoping we can eeeeeek a snow event out of it some how.

Edited January 8, 2016 by joggs

[radiohead]

Just as it looked like things were firming up on the back on the 12Z models yesterday....

 

[knocker]

When this

Became this

And then......................................Sidney still not storing his nuts

Edited January 8, 2016 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

last nights 18Z was start of a new trend, now ECM on board, I normally rate GFS over ECM anyway, but this time certainly true

 

Then that is just daft and a complete denial of science. ECM is top and GFS third.

[joggs]

Easterly inbound,TEITS just posted in mod thread lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, joggs said:

Easterly inbound,TEITS just posted in mod thread lol

yeah, noticed that good to have the eye in the sky back

[coldcomfort]

Was going to post in the MOD, but having seen the kind (and typical) response to the developing outlook in there I thought nah...

Still so, so much to be resolved here, not least all models struggling to handle the Az low and because of this upgrades for cold are just as likely as further downgrades across the next 48hrs imo. What I struggle to get my head around is the pattern of behaviour that seems to occur every single time a cold spell is flagged. Almost everyone looks at the coldest senario shown, takes it as gospel, ignores any other signal that doesn't support it, then gets all maudlin when something less severe and pleasing to the eye appears....and all over charts several if not many days away.

We all (or at least the vast majority of us) want to see some snow, in fact any snow will do, but unfortunately what will be will be....as ever.

[Long haul to mild]

Model thread has some very confident "it's all over" proclamations this morning which I suspect are just borne out of frustration (or even schadenfreude in some cases).  While the trend isn't brilliant, there's huge uncertainty for next week and I suspect there may well be some significant changes to come.

I would like to see a snowy spell but on the other hand it messes up my commute to work something chronic so I'll see the upside of either outcome!

Edited January 8, 2016 by Long haul to mild

[pegg24]

i had to actually clear the car this morning with ice amazing really only twice this winter. 

[feb1991blizzard]

40 minutes ago, joggs said:

Easterly inbound,TEITS just posted in mod thread lol

As soon as you see IDO with one of his long posts, you know its gone down the pan though.

[stewfox]

11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm still going out wearing jeans and a tee-shirt!

Looks like you had a good handle on where the models were going today !

I have seen more fun in a wake then in model thread at the moment

 

 

[Bristawl Si]

That Euro High in southern Europe, which has been there for ever (it seems)  didn't take a very long holiday did it?

It's back on today's model runs for a week or so time.

[JoeShmoe]

This is why the wise old birds say time and time and time again that until you have all models in broad agreement on a cold spell within T+96 more runs are always needed

it is just very hard to get deep cold in this country 

[snow freak]

I think its a total waste of time watching the models now after following the models thread for the past few days.  Yesterday it was all excitement about the cold prospects for next week and today the models have done a virtual u turn.  if the models cannot reliably predict beyond 3-5 days then what is the point of even looking at them.  I really can't see why bother to get all wound up just to be disappointed yet again.  I give up with this winter now.

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

LMFAO the cold spell is being killed off from both ends as I type. How the hell can all the models practically agree, and then flip 3 days before the first cold air was about to arrive, to bloody south-westerlies. Beggars belief. I'm stained glass windowing really Tuted off this morning.

The way it's going we'll probably only get a frost (probably only a ground frost too) and I have to tell people at work I was wrong.  I really should know better shouldn't I? 

the models are absolute rubbish and a total waste of time.  if they practically all agreed yesterday on the cold spell and have now flipped back then what is the point.  And also why even bother to comment on models more than 5 days ahead when you might as well toss a coin as they are impossible to predict anything more than 5 days at the very most.  I for one will not be following the model thread from now on.  Been let down far too many times now.  I would rather just take the weather as it comes.

[Methuselah]

Seems that only the MetO knows how to read them properly?

[pegg24]

2 minutes ago, snow freak said:

the models are absolute rubbish and a total waste of time.  if they practically all agreed yesterday on the cold spell and have now flipped back then what is the point.  And also why even bother to comment on models more than 5 days ahead when you might as well toss a coin as they are impossible to predict anything more than 5 days at the very most.  I for one will not be following the model thread from now on.  Been let down far too many times now.  I would rather just take the weather as it comes.

I agree totally and living in Northamptonshire we will probably miss out anyway. lol

[Jason H]

I must admit, I've been following the weather model forums since the snow watch BBC days. It's part of my winter way of living. Checking the model forum discussions each morning. Now I have the technology to look at this on a train to work, how far we've come. I've noticed a pattern to the model discussion forum, especially in winter months over the years.

You get the eager beavers, who are up at 4:30 in the morning to watch a run come out live on their PC/Laptop/phone . These type of people are the ones those that live, breath and sweat over an isobar kink in the mid North Atlantic at T144 and post "depressing run". As the morning goes by, more people come on board and post overall that it's not a bad run and to not take everything so seriously.

You then get the "I did say" brigade who really should have jobs at the Met Office as they can predict the weather with some certainty days in advance.

Finally you get the confused user asking for what it's really going to do in Upper Watton on the 12th of January and will it snow IMBY. It's then repeated at each GFS update. But, do you know what? I love it. It's the rhythm of my winter day and I wouldn't have it any other way

Still looks good for snow and cold weather for some next week. Not quite the snow Armageddon the majority in Model Discussion are looking for, but a lot lot better than the unseasonably mild, wet windy weather of the previous 2 months.

Many thanks.

 

[Woollymummy]

we had a frosty walk to school, I thought this might cheer us up, nicked the other one off a friend's FB page:

Edited January 8, 2016 by Woollymummy

[LeeSnowFan]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems that only the MetO knows how to read them properly?

ha ha MEOW! lol

 

[snow freak]

9 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

I agree totally and living in Northamptonshire we will probably miss out anyway. lol

although I did have to scrape the car windscreen this morning.  who would have believe it.  Middle of January and I have to scrape ice.....OMG!