Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Purely out of interest but a fairly unusual tropical storm has evolved in the Atlantic .  This cyclone is now several hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening as an non-tropical system ahead of a subtropical jet stream typical of El Niño winters

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Purely out of interest but a fairly unusual tropical storm has evolved in the Atlantic .  This cyclone is now several hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening as an non-tropical system ahead of a subtropical jet stream typical of El Niño winters

#Is that likely to strengthen the Polar Jet as it drifts north-east, do you think?

[The PIT]

Slight delay in the cold spell need to keep an eye on that. Annoying warm sector we're under for Tuesday so that could scupper things as well for a short while. All eyes ecm.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

#Is that likely to strengthen the Polar Jet as it drifts north-east, do you think?

No I don't think so. This is the thinking on the subject.

A strong upper-level ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone as it races east and then southeast. Phase-space diagrams from Florida State University show this system taking on subtropical characteristics (asymmetric warm core) this weekend and early next week. Upper-level winds will remain strong in the vicinity of this system, and ocean temperatures will be a marginal 24-25°C (75-77°F), suggesting that any potential development would be subtropical rather than tropical. If this storm were to get a name, it would be "Alex." The Atlantic’s most recent tropical cyclone during January was Tropical Storm Zeta, which served as the closing act of the blockbuster 2005 hurricane season. Zeta formed on December 30 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rare-january-depression-in-central-pacific-atlantic-subtropical-storm

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

No I don't think so. This is the thinking on the subject.

A strong upper-level ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone as it races east and then southeast. Phase-space diagrams from Florida State University show this system taking on subtropical characteristics (asymmetric warm core) this weekend and early next week. Upper-level winds will remain strong in the vicinity of this system, and ocean temperatures will be a marginal 24-25°C (75-77°F), suggesting that any potential development would be subtropical rather than tropical. If this storm were to get a name, it would be "Alex." The Atlantic’s most recent tropical cyclone during January was Tropical Storm Zeta, which served as the closing act of the blockbuster 2005 hurricane season. Zeta formed on December 30 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rare-january-depression-in-central-pacific-atlantic-subtropical-storm

Cheers.  I see that Accuweather are of the view that mild zonal will re-establish after this brief colder spell.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Cheers.  I see that Accuweather are of the view that mild zonal will re-establish after this brief colder spell.

You will be moving up the most wanted list if you don't watch it.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Has the Met Office by any chance hacked into the GFS systems to bring the 12z run to suit their predictions ? 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, knocker said:

You will be moving up the most wanted list if you don't watch it.

I'm trying to be realistic!  While I'm still a slight coldie, I'm getting more ambivalent regarding temperatures nowadays.  Though I must confess the lack of sun during November and December did affect me, I didn't really mind the warmth.

Back O/T, I have a feeling the long-range, global circulation types on here will be left emmbarrassed by the end of March regarding their predictions of colder synoptics in February.

[steveh19]

Why is the GFS always right, and spoils things? It always seems to have the right solution and it's usually the most boring one. 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Cancel the tinned goods! Winter's off. Everyone start stockpiling bikinis, stat! 

[The PIT]

Prefer the ECM still takes time to get them really cold uppers in place though.

[Bristawl Si]

Still looks fairly marginal to me to get cold enough (imby) for any precipitation that is about to fall as snow (imby).

I suspect the South may have to wait for any 2nd bite of the cherry later in Jan re snow. Just my thoughts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Back O/T, I have a feeling the long-range, global circulation types on here will be left emmbarrassed by the end of March regarding their predictions of colder synoptics in February.

Why? from what I can gather winters that generally start off mild and head cold through January usually stay that way. Early winter hemispheric long wave patterns are usually much different to those in Jan and Feb.

2013 a case in point in recent years along with 2009/2010 and your classics like 1947. It'd be rare IMO to go from super mild, cold back to mild (especially given the implosion of the vortex which is further weakened via WAA around Greenland). However given the lunacy of weather in recent years I wouldn't wholly discount anything!

Edited January 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why? from what I can gather winters that generally start off mild and head cold through January usually stay that way. Early winter hemispheric long wave patterns are usually much different to those in Jan and Feb.

2013 a case in point in recent years along with 2010 and your classics like 1947. It'd be rare IMO to go from super mild, cold back to mild (especially given the implosion of the vortex which is further weakened via WAA around Greenland). However given the lunacy of weather in recent years I wouldn't wholly discount anything!

1947 had a number of short cold spells in December and January. This winter has not...yet.

Was 2010 a 'late' Winter?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

1947 had a number of short cold spells in December and January. This winter has not...yet.

Was 2010 a 'late' Winter?

Aye. Late November!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

1947 had a number of short cold spells in December and January. This winter has not...yet.

Was 2010 a 'late' Winter?

No it came a cropper at a time when seasonal wavelengths were changing. Probably nudged the pattern to something less favourable. I still maintain that winter started far too early. It was pretty much the inverse of 09/10 which had a few weeks of zonal followed by a pretty cold rest of winter. A cold pattern setting in during the month of Jan has a fighting chance of lasting through Feb IMO. One starting in Nov does not!

I meant 2009/2010 in the post above btw!

Edited January 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye. Late November!

Yes i thought so Pete. My memory still ok then?

And if you go back to 09/10 the Winter in the 2010 segment happened 1st couple of weeks of January i think, in terms of bitter cold and snow.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes i thought so Pete. My memory still ok then?

And if you go back to 09/10 the Winter in the 2010 segment happened 1st couple of weeks of January i think, in terms of bitter cold and snow.

I was staying in Inverness back then, Bris, and I think the first sustained snowfall was sometime around December 18...I don't know how long it took to reach the southernmost parts of England, though?

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

 

And if you go back to 09/10 the Winter in the 2010 segment happened 1st couple of weeks of January i think, in terms of bitter cold and snow.

And stayed cold thereafter...I had snow events into Feb....despite it being less cold than during that bitter spell in Jan.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I was staying in Inverness back then, Bris, and I think the first sustained snowfall was sometime around December 18...I don't know how long it took to reach the southernmost parts of England, though?

2nd half of December, 1st couple of weeks January (09/10) down here were cold and snowy - in fact bitter cold

Edited January 7, 2016 by Bristle boy

[JOPRO]

Bad news coldies, knocker has leaked the news of the cold spell to the express! Normally the deathnel of any cold spell when they run with these front page stories!!!

http://www.express.co.uk/ourpaper

 

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And stayed cold thereafter...I had snow events into Feb....despite it being less cold than during that bitter spell in Jan.

Cant remember if we did into Feb to be honest CC.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cant remember if we did into Feb to be honest CC.

Pattern stayed blocked for most of Feb

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[ReindeerMarmalade]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was staying in Inverness back then, Bris, and I think the first sustained snowfall was sometime around December 18...I don't know how long it took to reach the southernmost parts of England, though?

The December stuff down here fell during the week prior to Christmas (fond memories of skating sideways from the carpark into M&S, although I can't remember the date snow started falling for that dumping), and the January stuff started falling on the evening of the 5th  

[Rammie]

27 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Still looks fairly marginal to me to get cold enough (imby) for any precipitation that is about to fall as snow (imby).

I suspect the South may have to wait for any 2nd bite of the cherry later in Jan re snow. Just my thoughts.

Well I'm in North Somerset, and I'm not expecting anything too unusual for January next week. Maybe a  little unusual for this winter  though.