Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[tynevalleysnow]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

My thoughts entirely.  Weatherweb suggesting that the cold is not going to be anything particularly extreme.  Snow mainly confined to high ground, and milder after a couple of days.

Yes but he was using earlier charts not the latest stonking ecm

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Yes but he was using earlier charts not the latest stonking ecm

He was concentrating on the GFS and UKMO, and commented that, despite his company's forecast of a cold February, the CFS anomalies were suggesting a return to mild south-westerlies, with western and north-western areas seeing more heavy rainfall.

Edited January 6, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

27 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Those daft "winter's over" posts are looking even more daft now eh?

Actually, with this event next week appearing to be a 2-3 day toppler, and the CFS showing February to be mild zonal, I'm not going to substantially change my opinion yet.

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at tonight's outputs the very cold spell could well be a two - three day wonder

why do you say that knocker

[tynevalleysnow]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

He was concentrating on the GFS and UKMO, and commented that, despite his company's forecast of a cold February, the CFS anomalies were suggesting a return to mild south-westerlies, with western and north-western areas seeing more heavy rainfall.

In his latest video no mention of Gfs or ukmo. Just showes the ecm from earlier and the the cfs which showed gh and euro low for the rest of Jan.

Edited January 6, 2016 by tynevalleysnow

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, tynevalleysnow said:

In his latest video no mention of Gfs of ukmo. Just showes the ecm from earlier and the the cfs which showed gh and euro low for the rest of Jan.

Which video is that?  I may have remembered incorrctly regarding the models he cited, but not the outcome.

[Methuselah]

IMO, the CFS is about as useful as a chocolate teapot!

[tight isobar]

^^ the cfs...

One of the most unreliable/fickle long/mid term tools...

And any disconting the ecm op/and its ensembles are walking around with there eye wideshut

All Imo..obviously. ^^

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, the CFS is about as useful as a chocolate teapot!

He was saying how reliable it's been the past month or so, but does think it's incorrect regarding February.

[Bristawl Si]

Yes...the upcoming cold spell is already over.

Now where's my crystal ball?

Damn i've missed the cut-off time to purchase Lotto tickets for tonite.

(Puts crystal ball away).

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes...the upcoming cold spell is already over.

Now where's my crystal ball?

Damn i've missed the cut-off time to purchase Lotto tickets for tonite.

(Puts crystal ball away).

Merely pointing-out a few dissenting voices, that's all.  It's still a few days away yet.

[northwestsnow]

If knocker is around,

knocker you stated it  could wellbe a 2 to 3 day wonder looking at the models, which models are you refering to?

Just wondering.

Edited January 6, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

My thoughts entirely.  Weatherweb suggesting that the cold is not going to be anything particularly extreme.  Snow mainly confined to high ground, and milder after a couple of days.

I know the word deluded fluttered around yesterday

That assessment is wrong based on latest goods, when was this said several days ago? You do not need extreme cold for snow in UK nearing midwinter. It will turn much colder, period.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Earnest Easterly* said:

I know the word deluded fluttered around yesterday

That assessment is wrong based on latest goods, when was this said several days ago? You do not need extreme cold for snow in UK nearing midwinter. It will turn much colder, period.

Earlier today, in fact (video was uploaded to Youtube 2 hours ago).

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Merely pointing-out a few dissenting voices, that's all.  It's still a few days away yet.

No worries - i jest.

Chill out time - after 7/8 years on here one learns to put weather model output in perspective alongside life's ups and downs.

Regards BB

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

why do you say that knocker

If you take the day ten anomalies into ext period the trough moves a little east which will bring the UK into the NW circulation of the HP to the west. Still cool but dry which is good news for many.

[Liam J]

18z rolling... The only way is down from the 12z suites given you'd be hard pushed to find room for upgrades esp the ECM, be much more comfortable when a Greenland high is modelled within T96! 

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Come on, Rob - it's surely pleasing that so many are that excited.  I unlikely with you regarding the GFS, though. 

Only when its certain.  People never learn,  the expected cold snap is still a week away and all this hyperbole this early usually ends in tears.

 

Get excited when its 24 -  48 hours away and its certain.  This hyperbole will likely end in tears -  seen it all before.  

2 hours ago, Smartie said:

Well well, the weather looks like making a fool of those who were foolish in writing off the rest of winter & saying they'd be no cold!

Some people will never learn, it doesn't matter how bad the models may be looking, a turn around can happen at anytime. 

Yep,  just as foolish in expecting charts a week away to verify. 

 

Im sure itll get cold,  but these gfs charts are unlikeltY to verify to the intencity they suggest now.  

[Liam J]

Excellent week ahead forecast with John Hammond! ''winter as we used to know it'' next week, ''flooded fields will turn into ice rinks'' he mentioned the spring flowers blooming with the mild December and then showed them with snow on, left a cliffhanger at the end ''how long will it last, Helen W will have more details tomorrow'' he loves a good ramp! 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Only when its certain.  People never learn,  the expected cold snap is still a week away and all this hyperbole this early usually ends in tears.

 

Get excited when its 24 -  48 hours away and its certain.  This hyperbole will likely end in tears -  seen it all before.  

Yep,  just as foolish in expecting charts a week away to verify. 

 

Im sure itll get cold,  but these gfs charts are unlikeltY to verify to the intencity they suggest now.  

Actually the funny thing is the ones who were writing off winter were the cold rampers not those of a more objective persuasion.

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Act ually the funny thing is the ones who were writing off winter were the cold rampers not those of a more objective persuasion.

Exactly,  reason and objectivifTy over desire always wins. 

 

Dunno why this crap tablet wont let me edit mistakes...  

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually the funny thing is the ones who were writing off winter were the cold rampers not those of a more objective persuasion.

nothing wrong with ramping, we even have our own thread :-p

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually the funny thing is the ones who were writing off winter were the cold rampers not those of a more objective persuasion.

I know, and neither you nor I nor Mushy have written off this winter.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Quite right. People are having altogether too much fun on here...a definite dearth of hair shirts and self-flagellation. What we need is a plethora of mild charts to bring people back down to earth  

[knocker]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

nothing wrong with ramping, we even have our own thread :-p

Yes it's odd that it requires a pseudonym but I do worry that if this much awaited cold spell goes down the swanee, not that I think it will,  we will have another Jim Jones episode.