Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Experts on model thread reckon GFS is wrong! hope it is, want a backtrack tomorrow then

[summer blizzard]

Have to say that i like this evenings Euro run, a northerly followed by high pressure (easterly or not) is not only a stark change but should also be pretty sunny and potentially frosty. The outputs tonight have reminded me of Feb 13 which saw pretty poor cold attempts but did see high pressure always close or on top of the UK.

[pegg24]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Experts on model thread reckon GFS is wrong! hope it is, want a backtrack tomorrow then

I can't keep up with model thread at moment keeping saying I won't look but can't stay away.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Have to say that i like this evenings Euro run, a northerly followed by high pressure (easterly or not) is not only a stark change but should also be pretty sunny and potentially frosty. The outputs tonight have reminded me of Feb 13 which saw pretty poor cold attempts but did see high pressure always close or on top of the UK.

Indeed; I'd imagine that those who have been flooded this past few weeks would be pleased to have some cool, dry weather.

[TSNWK]

Why I'm I not impressed with the flurry of posts in regard to MOGREPS suggesting that the cold spell will last until the weekend..i thought that being shown already on the models.. I'm I missing something?

[summer blizzard]

17 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Indeed; I'd imagine that those who have been flooded this past few weeks would be pleased to have some cool, dry weather.

Aye. Good that this sunny setup will come as days are lengthening again too. Had the first clear sunset in a while today here and it was fairly light at half 4 still. 

[chicken soup]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Hahahahaha! succinctly put - I swear he just sniffs around on websites like this and TWO and reads what the 'senior' posters write and like us views the models and hey presto always get his name mentioned in the 'papers' as an 'expert'! - If I had a fiver for the amount of times a forecast (and we're talking between a week and a month ahead) of his has gone down the plug hole in the last year...well I'd be able to have a bloody good night out on the town!

Could go into more detail about his short to medium term forecasts which have gone wrong over the last year but I honestly don't think the bloke is worth the effort.

P.S. Hope your reading this James,

Couldnt agree more...but what baffles me is that he actually runs a weather service and the likes of the express pay for his absurd forecasts.

[Spah1]

20 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Why I'm I not impressed with the flurry of posts in regard to MOGREPS suggesting that the cold spell will last until the weekend..i thought that being shown already on the models.. I'm I missing something?

Can someone from 'Two' actually have access to MOGREPS ???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ever so slightly further east on 18Z than 12Z, need everything further east

[LeeTofficial]

no comments in over an hour anyone here 

[Love Snow]

9 minutes ago, LeeTofficial said:

no comments in over an hour anyone here 

I'm here sat on my sledge waiting to go for next week!

[ReindeerMarmalade]

On 07/01/2016 at 6:29 PM, ReindeerMarmalade said:

Cancel the tinned goods! Winter's off. Everyone start stockpiling bikinis, stat! 

Everyone stop! Winter's back on, cancel the bikinis! Sledges at the ready, snow shovels on standby, someone dismantle Knocker's shed for firewood. Stockpile everything immediately!

 

At least until tomorrow morning  

[cheeky_monkey]

usual straw clutching in the MOD thread this morning 

[The PIT]

Well I'm saying the chances of this happening is 30/100 GFS switching back to mild outlook slowly ecm and ukmo will probably follow suite later today.

Hopefully the models will see this and come up with some beauties.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS not playing ball, wonder if it is right

[knocker]

Weds 12z fax and the GFS not a million miles apart.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Weds 12z fax and the GFS not a million miles apart.

Looks similar - the low in the Atlantic further south on the FAX is the only real difference i can see

[knocker]

A little snippet from the woodshed

The GFs has some interesting explosive cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Maine next week.

[knocker]

Paul Knightley ‏@PaulKnightley 21h21 hours ago

Internet snow-lovers' daily mental journey around the GFS issues.

 

 

 

[knocker]

The GFS and ecm anomalies are both singing the same song. Slowly up to day ten the dissipation of the Greenland HP, trough down over eastern Europe and ridging adjacent to the UK. Moving through the ext period they again remain compatible and reintroduce our old friend the vortex over N. Canada. The trough moves a tad east and both have the European HP ridging north over the UK.

If all of this panned out, and of course it's a big if, it would portend some quite pleasant, dry, weather for the UK. Temps around average, possibly even sneaking above.

Edited January 9, 2016 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Experts on model thread reckon GFS is wrong! hope it is, want a backtrack tomorrow then

the gfs 00z was/is wrong. it has no support so is highly unlikely to verify . the ever reliable noaa 500mb charts keep the general northwesterly upper flow for the next 2 weeks, with ridging to our west.

this might suggest a lengthening of the cold spell - but its looking cold not freezing.

[cornish snow]

42 minutes ago, knocker said:

Paul Knightley ‏@PaulKnightley 21h21 hours ago

Internet snow-lovers' daily mental journey around the GFS issues.

 

 

 

Love it. 

Would add, it sums up this whole community at present.

[Gord]

A few days ago, people were making comparisons with winters like 2009/10, Dec 2010. Today, I've seen a post that compares the output with winter 2014/15.

That's all I need to read for today. I'll come back in a day or 2 and see what we're looking at then.

The jury is out, booked flights and looks like they could be gone for a while!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Can I ask something here, please?  We often see model verification stats which show the GFS trailing the other two main models right from +24 hours through to Fi, yet there's more than one poster in the model thread stating that GFS shows the way, and the outcome post-cold snap is inevitably going to follow the GFS outputs, which, apparently, are showing a Bartlett set-up with blowtorch SWerlies.  Surely this analysis is flawed given the stats?

Edited January 9, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Woollymummy]

I felt like watching some dolphins swimming today, so I had a look at the NH jetstream animation for a while and that did the trick.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1