Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Weather-history]

Hint that snow is falling at higher levels at the end of my time-lapse. Can see the snow curtains falling from the base of the cloud.

 

 

[LeeSnowFan]

So after last nights charts the chance of snow is ever increasing for our region! lets hope it stays like that

 

I think that we will have a surprise in the last 24/48 hours with the charts! they certainly are playing with us 

[Spah1]

Just wish we could have an event where elevation isn't needed. 

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Can I ask something here, please?  We often see model verification stats which show the GFS trailing the other two main models right from +24 hours through to Fi, yet there's more than one poster in the model thread stating that GFS shows the way, and the outcome post-cold snap is inevitably going to follow the GFS outputs, which, apparently, are showing a Bartlett set-up with blowtorch SWerlies.  Surely this analysis is flawed given the stats?

a poster that quotes a model run as "showing the way" is usually one that likes what that model is showing.

the verification stats dont lie - the gfs does perform the weakest, just look at what its predicted in the past week or so - there was a huge bartlett high on at least 1 run, then when the cold appeared it became the model of choice as it flipped from mild to cold - but not ordinary cold - severe big freeze cold. now its back to suggesting mild southwesterlies. 

the gfs has been very unstable, amplifying any hints to an extreme.

i dont think the gfs will be proven correct UNTIL it has support from the noaa 500mb anomaly charts, and currently it doesnt. in fact it never did when it showed the deep cold that fooled so many. i was asked about getting excited about the cold spell - i didnt believe itll be anything as severe as the gfs suggested because i didnt think these charts supported such a pattern.

the current 8-14 day mean shows ridging (somewhere) to our west, we remain on the cold side of the ridge with a northwesterly upper flow. IF these chart verify (and have a greater success % wise then the gfs at this timeframe) then theres no chance of the gfs suggestion  of a blowtorch southwesterly.

so i dont believe the gfs will be proven right, the odds are against it - BUT as with everything weather wise - its uncertain and the gfs HAS 'won out' over other models in the past (the demise of the cold in december 2010 being case in point).

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Thanks Rob - that pretty much confirms my suspicions.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Apparently, the BBC online forecast is siding with the GFS  in a return to mild zonality after next weekend.  I'm sure the north of England will be pleased!

[knocker]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Apparently, the BBC online forecast is siding with the GFS  in a return to mild zonality after next weekend.  I'm sure the north of England will be pleased!

I wouldn't be in too much of a haste to go for that as I don't think that's a done deal by any means.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wouldn't be in too much of a haste to go for that as I don't think that's a done deal by any means.

What's this - our Kernow friend cold ramping!?

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What's this - our Kernow friend cold ramping!?

I ramp not, merely think there is too much uncertainty vis the change to be in any way definitive at the moment, I have posted my thoughts in the west country thread, the spiritual home of the Knockers.

I'm also taking into account the fact that Sidney saw the 06z GFS, flicked his bushy and muttered "I know on  which side my nuts are roasted".

Edited January 10, 2016 by knocker

[Unused sledge]

Hi all my first post after lurking in the background since 2010 ...  At my location in Kent I am hopeful but optimistic as  2m temps are a little high for any snow to actually settle and build on Thursday/Friday but I live in hope ... Maybe late Jan early Feb is our best bet in se when hopefully the real cold will set in... Please correct me if I am wrong 

[Interitus]

22 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Can I ask something here, please?  We often see model verification stats which show the GFS trailing the other two main models right from +24 hours through to Fi, yet there's more than one poster in the model thread stating that GFS shows the way, and the outcome post-cold snap is inevitably going to follow the GFS outputs, which, apparently, are showing a Bartlett set-up with blowtorch SWerlies.  Surely this analysis is flawed given the stats?

The forecast is not necessarily flawed - yes long term the GFS stats are typically worse than the ECM and UKMO. The difference with regards ECM is about half a day accuracy - by the time you get the latest GFS it is about as good as an out of date ECM. There is very little between the GFS and the UKMO and over the past month both the GFS and parallel have been better than UKMO -

But here's the thing, the scores aren't consistent with no sure way of being certain which will be the best performing model on a particular run - even the Indian model tops the chart one day in the past month. Anyone disregarding the GFS because of verification stats is talking out of the back of their head

In any case for FI forecasts ensembles outperform any single op which backs up taking a balanced view of all the op runs. So the approach of taking the GFS alone is flawed but not necessarily the GFS forecast.

[cornish snow]

1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

I don't know these cold hunters cherry picking 1 chart some 11 days out.....Sidney's nuts will be freezing by midweek

 

Dont know about freezing. Still 7c in sidney's garden.

[mcyates]

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Hint that snow is falling at higher levels at the end of my time-lapse. Can see the snow curtains falling from the base of the cloud.

 

 

What did you use to record all of that, loved it when you could see the stars!!

[cyclonic happiness]

I see the 12z GFS really doesn't want us to have this cold spell. 

Every run it's something different, I don't know how much more my nerves can take.

This morning I thought we were practically safe until next sunday, now it's only until thursday and southwesterlies are being progged.

This is still the worse ever run of models in the 10 years I've been on Netweather

[Weather-history]

34 minutes ago, mcyates said:

What did you use to record all of that, loved it when you could see the stars!!

A Brinno tlc 200 pro time-lapse camera.

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

The forecast is not necessarily flawed - yes long term the GFS stats are typically worse than the ECM and UKMO. The difference with regards ECM is about half a day accuracy - by the time you get the latest GFS it is about as good as an out of date ECM. There is very little between the GFS and the UKMO and over the past month both the GFS and parallel have been better than UKMO -

But here's the thing, the scores aren't consistent with no sure way of being certain which will be the best performing model on a particular run - even the Indian model tops the chart one day in the past month. Anyone disregarding the GFS because of verification stats is talking out of the back of their head

In any case for FI forecasts ensembles outperform any single op which backs up taking a balanced view of all the op runs. So the approach of taking the GFS alone is flawed but not necessarily the GFS forecast.

Hi - I didn't mean the model output was flawed; what I was referring-to was attempting to produce a forecast on the assumption that the GFS is correct and the Euros are incorrect.

[Dancerwithwings]

52 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I see the 12z GFS really doesn't want us to have this cold spell. 

Every run it's something different, I don't know how much more my nerves can take.

This morning I thought we were practically safe until next sunday, now it's only until thursday and southwesterlies are being progged.

This is still the worse ever run of models in the 10 years I've been on Netweather

12z GFS......Odd one out for my liking.

Next....ECM ?

[Weather-history]

Some nice convection in the late afternoon to the NW

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

It looks like my area might just be a little bit too low for snow this week, so fingers crossed that is the case. Wednesday night looks a bit shaky though...

I hope so, don't want you getting snow, I'll be too low I reckon, GFS is shocking anyway, shorts out in around 10 days

[shotski]

Hi All

can I ask why Ian Fergusson doesn't post on here any more ?

such a shame to loose such an informative poster. 

[snow mad]

I've just about had it with this cold shot it is looking feeble and I can see it being a long way back to cold after this high has sunk down onto us!! 

[Bristawl Si]

Looks increasingly like a 'blink and you'll miss it' cold shot with v little chance of the white stuff (imby).

Then HP settles pretty close or even over the UK for a time. Good for the folks suffering from the rain deluges.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Bristle boy

[johnholmes]

I think it is so amusing reading the highs and lows in the model thread as the synoptic models chop and change.

What 'blink' and you will miss it Bb?

Nothing I have seen has ever predicted deep long lasting cold. Cold by meteorological definition yes, length of spell, still open to doubt but 5 days as a minimum with most areas (if with clear skies) getting air frosts, and some even getting snow. Just when the cold leaves is still not definite, I would suggest 7-10 days unless the cold settles in sufficiently to slow down or even stop the return of the Atlantic for a while longer.

Of course time will show us all how wrong we may have been but  a more relaxed approach might be an idea for some folk in the model thread.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM ends settled so a good thing, still chilly as well I think away from far west

[Mapantz]

It's still a pretty normal spell of weather. Temperatures are  going to be around the 7 or 8 mark during the day down here. 

You can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter. I don't know why so many get excited in the mod thread, the same offenders fall for it every year. lol