Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[NO LONGER POSTING]

14 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just  watch the  bbc  news 24  weather  at 955  on the news channel  it gives   a  5 day forecast  the south  can expect very high  winds  on monday

The 12z is a stormy run on gfs for everyone

[stainesbloke]

31 minutes ago, Surrey said:

The 12z is a stormy run on gfs for everyone

True, plenty of wind throughout that run. Monday's storm has been modelled further south on the last couple of runs, with France getting the gales and us just very wet. But plenty of volatility so I don't think we're out of danger just yet. Am quite surprised that with the relentless Atlantic onslaught this winter, the south hasn't seen anything particularly fierce, just a generally constant strong flow. 

[The PIT]

9 hours ago, Surrey said:

The 12z is a stormy run on gfs for everyone

Err no there wasn't any stormy weather for us unless you go a long way forward to Wednesday. So not for everyone.

Anyway back to very windy on Sunday briefly across England while the mainstorm swings across the far south west and channel later. Question is how far will the secondary features develop which will decide how windy it will be hence unceratinity.

Saturday shows gusts to lower 50's over England the direction for us means we won't notice anything but some will however again this depends on how the feature develops.

 

[sunnijim]

Models (including fax chart)   seemed to have firmed up on a windstorm of sorts for southern counties,the worst of it from Sunday evening until Monday evening.Looking like a good 24hrs of gusts toward 70mph around the South coast,more like 50mph or so inland as far North as London.

I would expect a naming from the Met office soon given this mornings runs,the first named storm in the South!

[The PIT]

Still on for Sunday on the 06 oz and stronger winds later on for the south west and channel. So it's back and not I will be back.

[Mapantz]

Warnings updated and added..

[The PIT]

ice and rain

[Mapantz]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

ice and rain

They were added too, but the rain one for the south west was updated, and the wind warning was added for Monday.

[sunnijim]

Interesting to see how the 12z progs the Sunday/Monday low.Marked differences between the 00z runs today and yesterday's 12z.The 00z shows a much larger area of Southern Britain under the strong wind field and for longer.The met office warning would appear to follow the 12z runs that had a shorter sharper blast mainly over the SW of England.

[Liam J]

Windy in the south tomorrow especially the SW with gusts around 50-60mph & maybe higher with exposure. 

More widespread windy weather possible Sunday and on into Monday.

Quite a complex set up with a few low centres nearby and wave features swinging over the country which would increase the winds as we've seen on the 12z, expect further changes even at this close range as models get a handle on how the various surface features will develop and affect the UK. 

 

[The PIT]

Saturday won't effect Sunny Sheffield late Sunday will do as will Monday afternoon onwards.

[@actguk]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Windy in the south tomorrow especially the SW with gusts around 50-60mph & maybe higher with exposure. 

More widespread windy weather possible Sunday and on into Monday.

Quite a complex set up with a few low centres nearby and wave features swinging over the country which would increase the winds as we've seen on the 12z, expect further changes even at this close range as models get a handle on how the various surface features will develop and affect the UK. 

 

Surprised no named storm mentioned for this yet?

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, @actguk said:

Surprised no named storm mentioned for this yet?

Huge would be a good name ..

[Spikecollie]

30 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Huge would be a good name ..

No - it has to be "I" - so immense!!! I'm sure it'll all get downgraded - or at least I hope so.

[weather09]

Noticed recent GFS outputs suggest cold front moving across later on Sunday sharpening toward far S/SE as it surges eastward during overnight period, with forced ascent of modestly moist airmass ahead of the front under strong and veered diffluent jet streak:

    

Though far from being an environment of good instability, reasonable mid-level lapse rates and modest moisture at low-level together with sufficient lift would suggest line convection/segments/LEWPs, which would bring about a strong convective gust/hail risk, in addition to strong non-convective ahead of the CF.  GFS hinting at this sig. conv potential toward south given relatively backed sfc winds ahead/along the front with strong veering at low-levels. Though these outputs aren't entirely useful when the environment, instability-wise, isn't really there.   

Showery regime follows cold front with colder air moving in aloft.  More chance of thunder in this environment.  Pre-front environment more a high RF-rate/convectively enhanced wind risk.  

[Weather26]

5 hours ago, @actguk said:

Surprised no named storm mentioned for this yet?

Probably because the warnings haven't got to amber yet (which i think is the criteria for when a storm is named.) but it may well do over the weekend if there is no downgrade

[Mapantz]

You may be interested in some charts I have on my site @weather09 - I was given access to ripwrf's FTP. I've set up a script to download a selection to my site, twice daily, and made a simple viewer. They only go up to 36hrs, but they're pretty good for looking at convective parameters for a day in advance- 3km resolution. Click 'charts' in my menu if you want to have a gander.

[sunnijim]

53 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Probably because the warnings haven't got to amber yet (which i think is the criteria for when a storm is named.) but it may well do over the weekend if there is no downgrade

Amber is not a requirement for a naming,gusts of 70mph and above will see it named Imogin I would imagine.We are close along coasts and hills in the South to that now on models,it maybe that 70mph will only be attained local during the passing of a disturbance convective or otherwise rather than widespread,so it might not get named if the M.O feel that's the case.

Nailed to be the strongest winds in the South this winter by a long way,High tides too around the SE coast.

[Treasure]

Some gnarly swells in the far South-West of England on Monday.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, SkiFishBum said:

Some gnarly swells in the far South-West of England on Monday.

Every time somebody post one of those charts, I seem to be looking at them as well! lol

New Moon on Monday too, as SJ pointed out- combination of that & high tides.

[sunnijim]

Update from the met office this morning, new warning for Monday talks of 70 or 80mph gusts around the SW and South coast with the warning extended East from yesterday.

Perhaps a name will follow later or tomorrow? Monday rush hours could  be quite nasty in parts with talk of power outages and structural damagr in the M.O warning.

[The PIT]

Subtle changes int he wind direction for today may bring us into play. At the moment winds well down on predicted values due to it being a southerly wind. Time will tell though.

[January Snowstorm]

Looks quite severe for cork early Monday.  V high sea swell coinciding with high tide

[Spikecollie]

"Hurricane force 12" and "phenomenal" sea states mentioned in the shipping forecast again. It's just one after another.

If it was this Tuesday, rather than the following one that I was taking the ferry from Caen to Portsmouth, I'd be postponing my trip! I just hope the same words don't have to be said next week.

It's actually getting pretty windy here in inland France, and most of the country has a yellow alert for strong winds, with a couple of départements having an orange one. Could be an interesting night ahead...

[AdamStorm7891]

Phillip Avery on the BBC lunchtime forecast hinted at potentially 70-80mph gusts across Southern counties of England and Wales on Monday  if that materialises it would probably be the most significant storm across the southern half of the country since the St' Jude storm!