Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[knocker]

Regarding Mondays storm the ecm has the depression 958mb just north of Thurso at 00z Tuesday. This would bring a swathe of winds gusting 75-85kts across N. Scotland for a few hours.

[Liam J]

ICON 12z (German NWP model)

140/150km/h gusts.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

50 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

ICON 12z (German NWP model)

140/150km/h gusts.

 

Yup, this is what I'm concerned about. The strongest winds look to barrel through the Central Belt of Scotland and be affecting a much larger area of the mainland that Galloping Gertie.

[The PIT]

Big downgrade and a delayed storm for Monday. Nasty for scotland far north of England but won't effect us much now. Prob top gust 50 mph.

[Fiona Robertson]

Currently we have very heavy snow showers coming in on strong winds resulting in blizzard conditions, total white out.

[Liam J]

Warnings being updated for Monday with an amber wind alert now for W/NW Scotland, 65-75mph gusts widely with a risk of 80-90mph in exposure, not much lower than Storm Gertrude and a bit further south this time - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=he&from=rss&sn=59A83E35-6BDD-A553-C044-91D714882457_1_DG&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1454284800

Edited January 30, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Weather26]

Storm Henry has just been named

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Also.. Long way off

 

[sunnijim]

Some run to run consistancy now for a deepening low to develop on the Southern flank of the main depression sometime in the 48hr period 7th to the 9th.Most models go for overnight 7th/8th,Gfs later on the 12z 8th/9th.

If it comes to fruition it would be the first named storm to effect Southern England since the  naming system came into place,and looking at some runs the windiest since the Valentines night storm of 2014...

[Summer Sun]

Early rain warning for Friday

Issued at: 1118 on Tue 2 Feb 2016

Valid from: 0600 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

Further spells of heavy rain are possible during Friday, particularly over the high ground of Dumfries and Galloway. Be aware that due to the saturated ground, further localised flooding and disruption to travel is possible.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

An active cold front is expected to move southeast across the region during Friday, bringing spells of heavy and persistent rain, especially over high ground. At this stage, rainfall amounts are uncertain. Given recent significant rainfall events, the area is more sensitive, so that fairly modest rainfall amounts could lead to further localised flooding. We expect to update this warning during the coming days as more information becomes available.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1454630400&regionName=uk

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Little heads up a little kink in the isobars runs south tonight and tomorrow packs a mini punch to!

 

[moffatross]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

"Early rain warning for Friday ... particularly over the high ground of Dumfries and Galloway. ... Given recent significant rainfall events, the area is more sensitive"

Sensitive ? I've spent days digging new culverts and ditches in the adjacent field and in the neighbour's garden to channel fresh rainfalls away from our hoose. So not 'sensitive', more like absolutely sick of it 

[Liam J]

Potentially some more very windy weather next weekend, storm Imogen perhaps. Many changes likely before then though and may come to nothing. 

ECM chart would bring very strong winds in over Ireland and across central UK. 

Edited February 2, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[The PIT]

Sunday night looking very nasty a long way away but even if it comes in less it will be much stronger than the storm due to it's track. As it is expecting plenty of damage across England.

Edited February 2, 2016 by The PIT

[The PIT]

LOL now gone 12 hours later.

[The PIT]

Back on for the south west and channel

[Liam J]

Yeah, be a rough channel crossing if the GFS is right.

[Jimmyh]

Only needs a shift of hundred miles and whole of southeast is in it. 

[sunnijim]

Ukmo model really the only run now that doesn't buy into some sort of windstorm for the South Sunday and Monday,the gfs 06z has toned the wind down too although it's esembles for the most part pick out quite an 'event' wind wise still.

For those that look forward to somthing a little more exciting weatherwise in the South after a bland winter to date,the bad news is that the Met office seem to have gone with the ukmo output on the fax charts,blustery for sure but nothing extreme.

Many differances in models at 90hrs (rather unusual for a zonal situation) so plenty to play for on the 12z runs regarding the potential for trouble Sunday and Monday.

[March]

It isn't particularly windy here but I find that even when we have a rare yellow warning for wind it's no worse than at windy times with no warning. 

[The PIT]

LOL shoved further south this run. Over dramatic forecast by the beeb so everyone's going to be expecting severe storms this weekend. I expected purples and not a brief spell of 50 perhaps 55mph across the south east and east of the UK  Saturday.  I wish the forecasters would stop doing this becuase when the next 87 turns up the public won't take any notice.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

LOL shoved further south this run. Over dramatic forecast by the beeb so everyone's going to be expecting severe storms this weekend. I expected purples and not a brief spell of 50 perhaps 55mph across the south east and east of the UK  Saturday.  I wish the forecasters would stop doing this becuase when the next 87 turns up the public won't take any notice.

It's one rum though? Will look different tomorrow for sure the 18z yesterday removed the strong winds sat only to be back on today??

[Mapantz]

* two runs

 

The FAX doesn't overly support it either.

[The PIT]

Slightly less excited later forecast

46 minutes ago, Surrey said:

It's one rum though? Will look different tomorrow for sure the 18z yesterday removed the strong winds sat only to be back on today??

More than one run there's been more without it than with it. So huge uncertainty as to whats going to happen. The weekend isn't going to be as bad as the forecast has made out although the rain will be a nuisance. I expect to be asked on Monday wheres the strong winds that were forecast.

[tinybill]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

It's one rum though? Will look different tomorrow for sure the 18z yesterday removed the strong winds sat only to be back on today??

just  watch the  bbc  news 24  weather  at 955  on the news channel  it gives   a  5 day forecast  the south  can expect very high  winds  on monday