C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[reef]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 6.4C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 13s, so an increase to 5.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.2C to the 25th (10.9: +6.8] [Record High: 11.4C]
5.3C to the 26th (9.2: +5.2) [Record High: 10.0C]
5.5C to the 27th (10.9: +6.7) [Record High: 10.4C]
5.6C to the 28th (6.4: +2.1)
5.6C to the 29th (7.3: +2.7)
5.8C to the 30th (10.1: +5.9) [Record High: 10.2C]
5.8C to the 31st (5.9: +1.4)

One of the mildest final 10 days on record is likely now. The current record holder in 1846 which averaged 8.82C over the final 10 days, while the forecast this month is for 8.65C.
There is essentially no chance of a below average month now, with a likely range before corrections of 5.3C to 5.9C, and 4.9 to 5.9C after corrections.
 

Yes, I think we're more likely to be pushing 1+C above the 1981-2010 average now. As mentioned earlier, a 5.7C finish would put us on course for a 7C winter.

I think the most notable thing is how easily this record-threatening mild has returned. Whether El Nino or warm local SST related, it seems quite easy at the moment to see exceptionally mild weather.

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS now starting to back away from its very mild run in to months end, still not as cool/average as the ECM though....... yet.

[Roger J Smith]

Would expect a fairly large downward correction this month as there have been some estimated or provisional numbers that look a bit high, plus some evening lows for adjustment, and with ECM having a colder look (also 12z GFS now a bit colder end of month) my guess is we end at 5.7 and adjust to 5.3 or 5.4.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 3.9C big jump for tomorrow probably 4.2C to 4.3C  so back above average steady rise rest of the week then a  couple of pauses but an upward trend nevertheless

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 24th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[AderynCoch]

On 24/01/2016 at 1:29 PM, reef said:

Yes, I think we're more likely to be pushing 1+C above the 1981-2010 average now. As mentioned earlier, a 5.7C finish would put us on course for a 7C winter.

I think the most notable thing is how easily this record-threatening mild has returned. Whether El Nino or warm local SST related, it seems quite easy at the moment to see exceptionally mild weather.

Indeed, the wind changes direction to south of west and all of a sudden some places are breaking temperature records. I recall this happening last winter in mid-January before a lengthy rather cold period. Those awful last two months of 2015 were one thing but when you have a persistent SWerly conveyor belt pumping air up from near Africa, record-breaking mildness isn't all that surprising. November and December were absolutely horrific, but this is surely adding insult to injury. Glad I'm not in the UK at the moment. I hope things are better when I come back in February.

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 25th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.2c to the 25th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Yesterday was provisionally 11.5C, which would beat the existing record for the 25th if it stands which is 11.4C. So back to record-breaking mild again after a brief cooldown it seems!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 4.4C should be 4.6C Tomorrow.

[Chris.R]

 I am running at 5.7°C. Lowest was 4.9°C last week. 

[reef]

We're on 5.3C at the moment. Another 0.5C on top of that by the month's end and it'll be the third mildest in 25 years. Its looking very possible unfortunately.

[BornFromTheVoid]

6 hours ago, reef said:

Yesterday was provisionally 11.5C, which would beat the existing record for the 25th if it stands which is 11.4C. So back to record-breaking mild again after a brief cooldown it seems!

Not only the warmest for that day, but also the 3rd warmest January day on record (provisionally), just 0.1C below the 23rd in 1834, and the 3rd in 1932.

[Chris.R]

Sunday here had a mean of  12.6c. Mad

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 6.0C, while maxima should be around the mid 12s, so an increase to 5.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.6C to the 27th (10.8: +6.6) [Record High: 10.4C]
5.6C to the 28th (6.2: +1.9)
5.6C to the 29th (7.1: +2.5)
5.7C to the 30th (7.5: +3.3)
5.8C to the 31st (9.0: +4.5)

A maximum today of 14.0C is required to equal the daily record, so that's unlikely. While a daily record tomorrow looks a good bet. Other than that, a finish now of between 5.6C and 5.9C seems likely before corrections, then 5.2C to 5.9C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 26th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 4.6C should be 4.7C tomorrow evening maybe 4.8C depends on tonight's minimum temp. Probably finish between 4.8C and 5C

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 27th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

11.1C yesterday was another daily record, beating the old one by 0.7C. It was also the 7th warmest January day on record (8th if you include what we recorded 2 days ago).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 4.7C. Unless there's a heatwave overnight or a freeze no change for tomorrow.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems like the last 5 days is, provisionally, the mildest 5 day January period on record too.

[snowray]

Where are we likely to end up? Colder tomorrow but very mild again Sunday...Around 6c?

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 28th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.6c to the 28th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Thought it was higher than that.

12c widely today, colder tonight and tomorrow though, then similar day to today Sunday. I guess we could end up close to that 5.6c figure then.

[reef]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Thought it was higher than that.

12c widely today, colder tonight and tomorrow though, then similar day to today Sunday. I guess we could end up close to that 5.6c figure then.

That's the thing with these warmer CET values these days. Even though 5.6C doesn't sound like anything special, it would still put this month joint 33rd mildest in the CET series.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks very likely that we'll finish on 5.7C before corrections, so anything from 5.7C down to 5.3C after corrections.