C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 8th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 3.4C, while maxima look like reaching about 9C, so remaining on 6.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.1C to the 10th (5.4: +0.9)
6.0C to the 11th (5.5: +1.1)
5.9C to the 12th (4.9: +0.5)
5.7C to the 13th (3.0: -1.6)
5.5C to the 14th (3.0: -1.4)
5.3C to the 15th (2.5: -2.1)
5.1C to the 16th (1.8: -3.1)
5.0C to the 17th (3.0: -1.6)
5.1C to the 18th (6.6: +2.1)

Most guesses are still in play this month. A cold final third can easily take us back below average, while a very mild period could give us a top 10 CET.
 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.9C a big difference.

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 9th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.6C, while maxima look like hitting the high 6s, so a drop to 6.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.0C to the 11th (5.4: +1.0)
5.9C to the 12th (4.9: +0.5)
5.7C to the 13th (3.4: -1.2)
5.6C to the 14th (3.5: -0.9)
5.3C to the 15th (1.7: -2.9)
5.1C to the 16th (1.1: -3.7)
4.8C to the 17th (0.4: -4.2)
4.6C to the 18th (1.5: -3.0)
4.6C to the 19th (3.9: -1.2)

A cooler longer range outlook this morning, with the CET getting to within 0.2C of the 81-10 average by the 18th. The last time we had 7 consecutive days of below average temperatures was back in October, from the 9th to the 15th.
 

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 10th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

6.6c to the 10th in Benfleet 

[Roger J Smith]

Taking an average of GFS, ECM and GEM, I would estimate the mean at about 2.5 for the next ten days which (assuming we are near 6.0 after today) would take the CET to 4.3 C by the 21st. The range would be 3.6 to 5.0. Then with only the GFS available for days 11 to 16, it was milder than the other models days 8-10 as well, so making a similar adjustment to its apparent 6 to 7 C regime and using 5.5 to 27th that would adjust the CET to about 4.8 C. From there to end of month any reasonable outcome would have to be 4.3 to 5.3 C. As there is some uncertainty all along, would say the safest zone appears to be 3.5 to 6 now, the (almost) excluded zones are below 2.5 and above 7.0 for monthly forecasts.

[Summer Sun]

6.0c to the 11th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 2.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 6s, so a drop to 5.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.7C to the 13th (3.8: -0.8]
5.5C to the 14th (2.9: -1.5)
5.3C to the 15th (2.6: -2.0)
5.0C to the 16th (1.0: -3.8]
4.8C to the 17th (0.8: -3.8]
4.6C to the 18th (0.7: -3.8]
4.5C to the 19th (2.5: -2.6)
4.6C to the 20th (6.7: +1.6)
4.8C to the 21st (9.5: +4.4)

Trending much cooler in the medium range, with the CET down to just 0.1C above the 81-10 average by the 19th.
 

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 12th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 13, 2016 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

Ive got no chance now, I cant remember what it was but it was over 6, I said to myself that before I looked 'if its below what I said by now, then ive got no chance, Daily is going to be well below average for next week and any milder spell at the end of Jan is very likely to not be anywhere near the December mildness which is what I would need to claw it back from there.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.7C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.7C, while maxima look like being close to 6C, so a drop to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.5C to the 14th (2.9: -1.6)
5.3C to the 15th (2.8: -1.8]
5.0C to the 16th (0.4: -4.4)
4.7C to the 17th (0.0: -4.6)
4.4C to the 18th (-0.7: -5.2)
4.1C to the 19th (-1.5: -6.6)
3.8C to the 20th (-1.5: -6.6)
3.7C to the 21st (0.2: -4.9)
3.5C to the 22nd (1.3: -3.1)
 

A very cold outlook with potential for a sub 0C week coming up.

[NeilN]

I went 2.2 - It was a tiny gamble, but a chance it could come off or be near! Stay please cold weather!

[pegg24]

I normally get it so wrong so thought if went high in Jan think I said 6.2c  would go the opposite as missed the cold weather and it may have worked lol.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

6.2c to the 13th here in Benfleet

[Summer Sun]

5.7c to the 13th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

18 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ive got no chance now, I cant remember what it was but it was over 6, I said to myself that before I looked 'if its below what I said by now, then ive got no chance, Daily is going to be well below average for next week and any milder spell at the end of Jan is very likely to not be anywhere near the December mildness which is what I would need to claw it back from there.

I'm in much the same position - I stupidly allowed my pessemism to overpower logic.

[Timmytour]

The way the models are at the moment, i wouldn't rule out anybody's guess!!

[feb1991blizzard]

22 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm in much the same position - I stupidly allowed my pessemism to overpower logic.

I was being realistic and honest, I thought any well below average temps wouldn't be until late Jan - Strat induced but was wrong, I way underplayed the extent of the Mild in December even though I went significantly above average and didn't want to do the same again.

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 14th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Me being on the coast, and the SE shows why my averages are a little higher!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 0.7C, while maxima look like reaching the high 4s, so a drop to 5.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.1C to the 16th (0.9: -3.9)
4.8C to the 17th (1.0: -3.6)
4.7C to the 18th (3.3: -1.2)
4.8C to the 19th (5.1: +0.0)
4.9C to the 20th (7.4: +2.3)
5.0C to the 21st (7.1: +2.0)
5.2C to the 22nd (9.0: +4.6)
5.3C to the 23rd (6.8: +2.5)
5.2C to the 24th (4.9: +0.5)

A pretty big change from the outlook 2 days ago, with the sub 0C week now having no chance and a sub 3 week probably 50/50.
The latest run does not have us reaching average, and in fact returns us to quite mild conditions in 5 days time
 

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 15th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average