C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley so far today

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley so far today

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Is their last update from the 2nd? I wonder what's wrong, they're usually on the ball? 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Such a late update today...

 

Met Office Hadley     6.0c.    Anomaly     2.5c.  Provisional to 4th. 

[Summer Sun]

6.0c to the 4th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

4 hours ago, Essex Easterly said:

Is their last update from the 2nd? I wonder what's wrong, they're usually on the ball? 

Usually when it doesn't update one or more of the stations they use won't have reported the data back for what ever reason I've known the issues be related to phone lines going down before

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 4.6C just above normal.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 5.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 8s, so an increase to 6.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.1C to the 6th (6.1: +1.5)
6.2C to the 7th (6.9: +3.5)
6.2C to the 8th (5.6: +1.6)
6.2C to the 9th (6.3: +2.0)
6.1C to the 10th (5.6: +1.1)
6.1C to the 11th (6.3: +1.9)
6.2C to the 12th (6.3: +1.9)
6.0C to the 13th (3.7: -0.9)
5.7C to the 14th (2.9: -1.5)

Continuing mild in the reliable time frame, but nothing exceptional. The value to the 12th being the 35th mildest since 1772, and the 14th being the 39th mildest.
 

[ARTDEMOLE]

On show already for Hadley CET....Makes a change to last few days....

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 5th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 5.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 8s, so an increase to 6.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.4C to the 7th (6.8: +3.4)
6.3C to the 8th (5.3: +1.3)
6.2C to the 9th (6.0: +1.7)
6.1C to the 10th (5.0: +0.5)
5.9C to the 11th (4.4: +0.0)
5.8C to the 12th (4.2: -0.2)
5.6C to the 13th (2.9: -1.7)
5.3C to the 14th (1.3: -3.1)
4.9 C to the 15th (0.3: -4.3)

The latest charts teasing with the first spell of below average conditions since around the 22nd of November, and in the longer range, some of the most -ve anomalies since early September.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C GFS may actually make it go below average. Shock horror.

[Roger J Smith]

This may be the list to follow in January ...

Top 15 LARGEST TEMPERATURE DECREASES (CET) from DEC to JAN

(1659-2015 average was 0.9 from 4.1 to 3.2)

Rank _____ Years ______ DEC _ JAN ___ drop ___ what 2016 needs to tie

01 ______ 1828-1829 __ 7.4 __ 0.3 ____ 7.1 ________ 2.6

02 ______ 1794-1795 __ 3.7 __-3.1 ____ 6.8 ________ 2.9

02 ______ 1837-1838 __ 5.3 __-1.5 ____ 6.8 ________ 2.9

04 ______ 1880-1881 __ 5.1 __-1.5 ____ 6.6 ________ 3.1

05 ______ 1775-1776 __ 4.5 __-1.6 ____ 6.1 ________ 3.6

06 ______ 1739-1740 __ 3.2 __-2.8 ____ 6.0 ________ 3.7

07 ______ 1813-1814 __ 2.8 __-2.9 ____ 5.7 ________ 4.0

08 ______ 1986-1987 __ 6.2 __ 0.8 ____ 5.4 ________ 4.3

09 ______ 1866-1867 __ 6.1 __ 1.2 ____ 4.9 ________ 4.8

10 ______ 1894-1895 __ 5.1 __ 0.2 ____ 4.9 ________ 4.8

11 ______ 1941-1942 __ 5.6 __ 0.9 ____ 4.7 ________ 5.0

12 ______ 1939-1940 __ 3.2 __-1.4 ____ 4.6 ________ 5.1

13 ______ 1708-1709 __ 3.0 __-1.5 ____ 4.5 ________ 5.2

14 ______ 1762-1763 __ 3.6 __-0.8 ____ 4.4 ________ 5.3

14 ______ 1771-1772 __ 5.6 __ 1.2 ____ 4.4 ________ 5.3

______________________________________________________________________________

Apparently this magnitude of a decrease is more expected with very cold Januaries that followed relatively normal Decembers, than with relatively normal Januaries that followed very mild Decembers. The only case that looks remotely like this year would be the top decrease from Dec 1828 to Jan 1829.

It looks plausible that 2016 could end up in first place on this list if the current GFS output verifies. One could imagine a final CET of 2.0 at the rate things are going on the 12z GFS. Anything colder than 2.6 will set a new mark. In terms of a drop from first half to second half of January, I think we had a table for that in the 2013 thread and that 1950 is the leader. However, the way things are trending that mark would not be challenged.

 

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 6th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[username home]

snow is coming

can feel it in my bones

crank the servers up to cope with the number of users logging in over the coming days....

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 4.9C, while maxima look like being around 9C, so an increase to 6.4C is likely on tomorrows update, and possibly the high point of the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.3C to the 8th (5.6: +1.5)
6.3C to the 9th (6.1: +1.8]
6.2C to the 10th (5.1: +0.6)
6.0C to the 11th (4.4: -0.1)
5.9C to the 12th (5.1: +0.7)
5.7C to the 13th (2.3: -2.3)
5.3C to the 14th (1.0: -3.5)
5.1C to the 15th (1.5: -3.1)
4.7C to the 16th (-0.8: -5.6)

Seems we have just a few days of mild temps left before the eagerly awaited pattern change arrives.

The largest drop from the first 10 days to the remaining 21 days occurred in 1855, when the first 10 days averaged 7.1C and the remainder of the month averaged 0.4C, giving a drop of 6.7C. 
 

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 7th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Another quick question from me!

How is the daily CET calculated by hadley, Min+Max/2 or an average of all samples taken that day?

I have 2 different average's from each, and not sure which one I should be using, 1 minute Samples give me 6.9c to the 7th, Min+Max/2 give me 6.7c

Thanks

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Essex Easterly said:

Another quick question from me!

How is the daily CET calculated by hadley, Min+Max/2 or an average of all samples taken that day?

I have 2 different average's from each, and not sure which one I should be using, 1 minute Samples give me 6.9c to the 7th, Min+Max/2 give me 6.7c

Thanks

Min and max divided by 2. However the minimum is taken as the lowest reading from 9am on the previous day to 9am on day itself, and the maximum is taken the highest reading from 9am on the day itself until 9am the next day.

I think most people just use the min and max during the a normal 24 hour day for their own stats though.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Thanks again, I will edit my figures in excel from the Cumulus records! 

6.7c here to the 7th for Benfleet, am I alright in posting my figures here along side the CET and The PIT? or do I need to ask someone for approval ?

Edited January 8, 2016 by Essex Easterly.

[BornFromTheVoid]

5 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Thanks again, I will edit my figures in excel from the Cumulus records! 

6.7c here to the 7th for Benfleet, am I alright in posting my figures here along side the CET and The PIT? or do I need to ask someone for approval ?

I don't think anyone would mind, though the mods might have another idea!

There is usually a thread created at the end of each month everyone posts monthly stats from their own weather stations too.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I don't think anyone would mind, though the mods might have another idea!

There is usually a thread created at the end of each month everyone posts monthly stats from their own weather stations too.

Do you have a link to that?  I'll PM Pitt to see whether he asked or not 

[BornFromTheVoid]

13 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Do you have a link to that?  I'll PM Pitt to see whether he asked or not 

Here's the link to the December one 

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

I don't know what various model runs are saying the CET will be on the 20th but if you take a grand average of all of them it seems to be somewhere between 4 and 5, or more accurately, zero and 10.

 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

I don't know what various model runs are saying the CET will be on the 20th but if you take a grand average of all of them it seems to be somewhere between 4 and 5, or more accurately, zero and 10.

 

GW on another forum suggests the CET will be pretty much bang on 4C based on today's runs and i think that's fair since even the GFS does not shift the surface cold until at least Sunday and if anything the models are trending more settled (in winter that tends to give a bias to colder than average albeit not significantly). Probable range for the CET is 3-5C i think so those near average should be pleased. A settled or northerly/easterly last third probably cools us towards 3C, an Atlantic last third probably pushes us back to 5C.

At 6.4C, i'm certain that i'm too high.