C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, Larger than average Hobo said:

Almost like a statistical effect where you see a marked jump (or fall) in an output due to a significant change in one, or several inputs. 

Thanks.

[Gael_Force]

With so much chopping and changing I'll leave figure till last minute then forget because it's Hogmanay.   CFS take for January temp anomaly: adding here to look back and see how accurate it was.

This was the December map at the end of November.   

[Lakigigar]

CFS is always super hot. I never saw a cold CFS forecast map... it's a crappy model.

Edited December 26, 2015 by Ashley Cornelis_21484

[Rollo]

At some point in January I believe that there will be a memorable cold spell so I will go for 2.9c

[seabreeze86]

1.8 for me

[Methuselah]

I think I'll reduce my guess, even further...6.6C, please.

[sn0wman]

3.9°C for me please. Mild start, short cold spell, turning milder again and then a more sustained cold spell at the end of the month is what I'm thinking.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Have either 5.7C or 5.8C been taken yet?  If one hasn't, could that be my guess, please?

[Mark Neal.]

4.6c. Thanks 

[Lakigigar]

On 26-12-2015 at 1:12 PM, Ashley Cornelis_21484 said:

4.9C

I change to -1.8C

Edited December 27, 2015 by Ashley Cornelis_21484

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Have either 5.7C or 5.8C been taken yet?  If one hasn't, could that be my guess, please?

We (meaning J10 and myself) don't accept conditional forecasts that we have to make for you. You have to submit one forecast, checking it for duplication earlier is your task. At the moment this does not count as an entry.

[NeilN]

2.5c - Something's got to give and it's this month.

[Costa Del Fal]

4.7c please.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

All the options I would have considered are already taken, so I'm out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

All the options I would have considered are already taken, so I'm out.

U can still go for what someone else gone for, mine still going for 6.6C, very wet month, very few if any frosts, keeping CET temp up

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

OK, I'll opt for 5.3C, please.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

5.0c please

[DR(S)NO]

I'm feeling a change is on the way...if nothing else ,we may get something more seasonal..so 4.0c for me please

[Lakigigar]

On 27-12-2015 at 8:53 PM, Lakigigar said:

I change to -1.8C

Back to 4.9C

Recent developments on long term are not that good.

[Timmytour]

The average January that follows the top 10% of warmest Decembers ever is 4.57C

The nightmare scenarios are the likes of 1795, 1833 and 2006 in which Decembers of 6.5C or greater were followed by Januarys of 7C or over.

The dream scenario is what followed the December of 1828 where the 8th warmest December of all time  (inc this month) was followed by one of the coldest Januarys of all time coming in at just 0.3C ...but others I would take would be what followed the Decembers of 1863,1918,1953 and 1954 where a first month of winter coming in at 6.3C or greater was followed by the other two months both registering below 3C.  After Dec 1954,  the ensuing Feb and March both rank in the coldest 10% of their months while the Jan was certainly on the cold side of average.  The  situation in late December 1954 was...

 

Familiar?

[sundog]

5.5c for  me please.

[stewfox]

6c for me

 

[Dancerwithwings]

5.1c, Cheers.

[coldest winter]

I just do not see any real change in the current set-up. Sadly, I expect to see more flooding, probably in subtly different counties. There are signs of more PM influence as January progresses.

i will go with 6.7 please

[Midlands Ice Age]

5.0C for me please

MIA