C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[Polar Gael]

6.0ºC for me please. 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting to see that most of the upper CETs are from much earlier  decades, even centuries!!  Anyway not looking pretty I'm going 6.9c

 

 

BFTP

[Timmytour]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Good spot, I think that is left over from a previous list where I had 1834 and 1934 confused (and that relates to the December records in some obscure way). I am going back in there to fix up the wording. Thanks.

Sorry Roger....by no means a criticism, I really thought I was missing something!  Just wanted to say how much i really appreciate all that stuff you do and on this competition.

[ARTDEMOLE]

I Will have a go at being on the bottom for 4.18.   Sticking to it whatever may come.

[The PIT]

6C another very mild month I'm afraid.

[summer blizzard]

Given how warm December has been i'm going to ignore my research and optimism and go for a modest cooldown to 6.4C. I do think we'll probably get a relatively widespread snow event though late in the month.

[igloo]

cold winters happen in cycles this is not one unfortunately 6.2c  for me 

[Roger J Smith]

I noticed on last night's 00z GFS run that there was very strong high pressure predicted around 45N 20W at the end of the run (on 4 Jan) so I had a look back to wetterzentrale daily maps for that date and found that the two closest matches on 4 Jan were in the years following the current tied warmest Decembers, in other words in 1935 and 1975. A few other fairly close maps were 1871, 1907, 1927, 1928, 1950 and 1954. A lot of the months that followed these analogues were fairly ordinary and there was a tendency towards colder second halves.

That tends to match my long-range forecast concept for the month, so I am going to go with 4.8 C for the time being. Buh bye Craig, it's been a blast hanging out at your end of the office.

[Bobd29]

Quote

No easy guesses last few months but looks like a SSW 10th-15th which won't affect the surface till around the 22nd then progressively really cold to the month end. All this leads me to a 4.4C guess please 

 

[Relativistic]

On 17/12/2015 at 9:47 PM, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

15C.

 

 

 

 

...

Okay, maybe that's a tad high.

I'll go for 7.1C instead please.

I think I'll up my guess. I'll go for 8.5C.

[CongletonHeat]

5.5

[Ravelin]

Need to post this earlier than I'd probably like as I'm off to the 'Austrian Snow Desert' on Boxing Day. Can't see Jan starting anything other than warmer than average, but hopefully cooling down as the month progresses.

I'll go for 5.6C

With any luck that will be overestimated by as much as I underestimated Dec.

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, Larger than average Hobo said:

Looking back at previous very mild Decembers, only 1828 was followed by a severe January (Dec 1828 7.4 degC, Jan 1829 0.3), most of the Januaries following mild Decembers were also on the mild side.

On that basis, i'm going for 5.7 degC for January 2016.

If you are going to do this shouldn't you really look at very mild November-December combinations? The current exceptional mildness really began at the end of October. That's when the pattern really started. 

[Wynn D Woo]

I am going to plump for 6.1C, cant see early Jan being anything special.

[virtualsphere]

6.3C please. 

[Harve]

5.8c

[Weather-history]

16 hours ago, Larger than average Hobo said:

If we use Novembers > 8.0 C as a selector (28 in total of these) and look for very mild following Decembers, the mildest (excluding this year) is December 1953 (6.9). There are only five following Decembers that have a mean above 6.0 degC, :

1821, 1953, 1994, 2006, 2011

The mean CET for the following Januaries were

4.7, 2.9, 4.8, 7.0 and 5.4

The mean CET for the following Februaries were

6.3, 2.6, 6.5, 5.8 and 3.8

So a similar conclusion based on that analysis, for what it's worth. 

Interestingly, take out 2006 and 2011 because they were just a continuation of an extended very mild period by time those years got to the November. This current spell really only began at end of October.

1994 is the closest, cool September, average October then the two very mild months.

The reality of the situation, is that this scenario is unprecedented on this scale.

[Methuselah]

I think I'll adjust my guess down to 7.8C, please...

[Relativistic]

5 hours ago, Larger than average Hobo said:

That really is the crux of it, there's nothing like this November/December period in the entire CET record. It's so far above anything experienced before that it almost screams 'step change'.

May I ask what you mean by step change?

[Daniel*]

On 19 December 2015 at 0:29 PM, The PIT said:

6C another very mild month I'm afraid.

I'm not seeing it........

[Stargazer]

5.9 for me please.

[Summer of 95]

I'll go for a nice round 7.0C which I don't think has been taken; more mild stuff but still a cool down from December.

[Lakigigar]

4.9C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

come on craig, put your prediction in! if you're right this time, the even larger teapot taken on a new level

[Lettucing Gutted]

CET Warming Stage 4 here we come.  9.5C    Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted