C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[damianslaw]

Half way juncture and it looks like a tall order to return a below average Jan, indeed chances are very low. Looks a warm up from mid week onwards, we will probably dip into the 4's early next week, but then firmly ensconced in the 5's for the foreseeable.

However, Feb pans out, overall winter 15/16 will go down as a mild one.

Still have high hopes for Feb being a colder than average month, likewise March, indeed wouldn't be surprised if March ends up colder than January.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 16th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4C just below average.

[mulzy]

To all the CET number crunchers?  What's the warmest first half of Winter ever (December 1st - January 15th)?  Is it this winter? What's the warmest December/January combo?  What's the warmest November/December/January combo?

Edited January 17, 2016 by mulzy

[BornFromTheVoid]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

To all the CET number crunchers?  What's the warmest first half of Winter ever (December 1st - January 15th)?  Is it this winter? What's the warmest December/January combo?  What's the warmest November/December/January combo?

Top 5 Warmest first halves (provisional 2016)

2016:    8.3C
1975:    8.1C
1853:    7.3C
1989:    7.2C
1935:    7.0C
 

Warmest Dec/Jan Combinations (What January needs to equal it)

1975:    7.5C (+5.2C)
1834:    7.0C (+4.2C)
1796:    7.0C (+4.2C)
1989:    6.8C (+3.8C)
2007:    6.8C (+3.8C)
 

Warmest Nov/Dec/Jan Combinations (What January needs to equal it)

1975:    7.2C (+2.3C)
2007:    7.2C (+2.3C)
1995:    7.1C (+2.0C)
2012:    7.0C (+1.7C)
1853:    6.9C (+1.4C)
 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Cold doesn't relent until Friday on the 18z. 4C max by day -4C min by night until then as a rough figure? I'm quietly confident of my guess of 4.2C not being far from reality.

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 17th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.0C, while maxima were in the low 4s, so a drop to 4.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

4.6C to the 19th (0.8: -4.3)
4.4C to the 20th (1.5: -3.6)
4.3C to the 21st (2.3: -2.8)
4.3C to the 22nd (3.3: -1.1)
4.3C to the 23rd (5.0: +0.7)
4.3C to the 24th (3.8: -0.6)
4.3C to the 25th (3.7: -0.4)
4.2C to the 26th (3.2: -0.8]
4.2C to the 27th (4.4: +0.2)
 

A pretty cold outlook for the next few days, possibly dipping below average as early as the 20th. After that, close to average conditions look likely.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 18th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 3.7C -0.3C below average.

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 19th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 20, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

Assuming 4.5 after today, the model output for rest of month is generally a subdued mild signal with the odd chance for colder nights, estimating 5.5 for mean gives an overall 4.9 finish, 4.4 to 5.5 now looking like the safest zone. Fairly close to our group consensus.

[Summer Sun]

4.5c to the 20th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[Timmytour]

On 1/13/2016 at 7:33 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 1.7C, while maxima look like being close to 6C, so a drop to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.5C to the 14th (2.9: -1.6)
5.3C to the 15th (2.8: -1.8]
5.0C to the 16th (0.4: -4.4)
4.7C to the 17th (0.0: -4.6)
4.4C to the 18th (-0.7: -5.2)
4.1C to the 19th (-1.5: -6.6)
3.8C to the 20th (-1.5: -6.6)
3.7C to the 21st (0.2: -4.9)
3.5C to the 22nd (1.3: -3.1)
 

A very cold outlook with potential for a sub 0C week coming up.

"Look at what you could have won......"

Looks like being a whole degree warmer than was being modelled 8 days ago.

It would be lovely to think GFS is as far out with its current outlook to the end of the month the other way.....but it seems reality only corrects the forecasts in one direction    

[The PIT]

Looking spring is set to return over the weekend so steep rises will be on offer. Anyway Sunny Sheffield is on 3.5C I suspect the low point of the month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of -2.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 7s, so drop to 4.4C is likely on tomorrows update, possibly the low point of the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

4.5C to the 22nd (5.4: +1.0)
4.6C to the 23rd (8.5: +4.2)
4.8C to the 24th (9.2: +4.8]
5.1C to the 25th (10.5: +6.4) [Record High: 11.4C]
5.2C to the 26th (7.9: +3.9)
5.3C to the 27th (8.5: +4.3)
5.3C to the 28th (6.1: +1.8]
5.4C to the 29th (7.1: +2.5)
5.5C to the 30th (9.1: +4.9)

The forecast could still change enough to give us a below average month, but it's beginning to look unlikely. Some days coming up get quite close to daily records, I think 4 days are within 2C. At this stage, I'd say a range of 4.2 to 5.8C before corrections, 3.8 to 5.8C after corrections.
 

[Summer Sun]

4.4c to the 21st

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

NO change for sunny Sheffield still at 3.5C

[Summer Sun]

4.6c to the 22nd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.0C, while maxima look like reaching the high 11s, so an increase to 4.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

4.9C to the 24th (9.2: +4.8]
5.1C to the 25th (10.8: +6.7) [Record High: 11.4C]
5.3C to the 26th (8.8: +4.7)
5.5C to the 27th (10.6: +6.4) [Record High: 10.4C]
5.5C to the 28th (5.4: +1.1)
5.5C to the 29th (7.2: +2.6)
5.6C to the 30th (8.8: +4.6)
5.7C to the 31st (7.8: +3.3)

A very mild final third to the month seems likely now, with the possibility of even setting a few daily record. At this stage, a finishing range of 5.0C to 5.9C before corrections seems likely, and 4.6C to 5.9C after corrections. Guesses in the low to mid 5s looking best.

[reef]

Its worth noting that if January comes in at 5.5C after corrections then we would require a February mean of just 5.1C for this to be the mildest winter on record. To blast all previous winters and have a mean of 7.00C, we'd require a 5.7C February.

4.3C would see the 2nd mildest on record (6.54C)
2.9C would see us in the top ten mildest (6.11C)

The way this winter is going perhaps a 7C mean isn't so out of the question!

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The previous warmest Nov-Jan period was 7.2C in 2007. If January finishes on 5.5C, the new Nov-Jan record will be 8.2C.

[Optimus Prime]

All because of one month though. Even if January and February were to replicate 1963 (-2.1 and -0.7c) this winter still would only have been 0.13c colder than the moderately cold winter of 2009/2010. January looks set to be much milder than average and it looks as if February could be on the same course.

To say the mildest winter on record is quite likely, still with well over a month to go says it all really. And to add to this some potentially new record daily values to be set a month later, after the most astonishing single month shows how dismal this winter has been for anything wintry (across England and Wales at least)

Edited January 23, 2016 by Optimus Prime

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 23rd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 6.4C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 13s, so an increase to 5.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.2C to the 25th (10.9: +6.8] [Record High: 11.4C]
5.3C to the 26th (9.2: +5.2) [Record High: 10.0C]
5.5C to the 27th (10.9: +6.7) [Record High: 10.4C]
5.6C to the 28th (6.4: +2.1)
5.6C to the 29th (7.3: +2.7)
5.8C to the 30th (10.1: +5.9) [Record High: 10.2C]
5.8C to the 31st (5.9: +1.4)

One of the mildest final 10 days on record is likely now. The current record holder in 1846 which averaged 8.82C over the final 10 days, while the forecast this month is for 8.65C.
There is essentially no chance of a below average month now, with a likely range before corrections of 5.3C to 5.9C, and 4.9 to 5.9C after corrections.