South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[festivalking]

To my untrained brain this new cold snap seems similar to the last one in january. Couple of real cold days with the supposed breakdown for mid week but keeps getting delayed. The breakdown being not dramatic with our patch in no mans land not cold not mild from mid week. Chances of snow minimal. As someone put yesterday when it gets cold enough there is no ppn around and when there is its not cold enough! Frustrating!

 

But.....as someone else once said get the cold in place and you never know what might happen..

[Andy Bown]

Squeezed a wintry precipitation day out of this set up thanks to leaving home at 06.45 and it definitely sleeting from an isolated shower in an otherwise clear sky, surprisingly it was  slightly frosty and 1.1c at that time too so it must have been clear for much of the night.

[knocker]

For what it's worth

 

[festivalking]

Usefull as a chocolate fire guard but this made me laugh our entire patch including Jay (cardiff) miss out on this frontal snow. All I would say is that this front is coming into very cold air,  could it stall and slip more south and westward?

Edited February 12, 2016 by festivalking

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Usual as a chocolate fire guard but this made me laugh our entire patch including Jay (cardiff) miss out on this frontal snow. All I would say is that this front is coming into very cold air,  could it stall and slip more south and westward?

 

As dire as that looks I am inclined to ignore precitype at moment as it will be hard to forecast at 48 hours out. I doubt that would be falling as rain on Welch mountains?

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

As dire as that looks I am inclined to ignore precitype at moment as it will be hard to forecast at 48 hours out. I doubt that would be falling as rain on Welch mountains?

I'd be very surprised if that didn't correct further west, Long way off so till hope for us yet. Like you say NK Welsh mountains would see falling snow.

[Frosty_wsm]

Looking rubbish for the West next week I see (going by current models), any snow much further East. Why am I not surprised! 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Smartie

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

As dire as that looks I am inclined to ignore precitype at moment as it will be hard to forecast at 48 hours out. I doubt that would be falling as rain on Welch mountains?

Again for what it's worth IMO model precipitation charts are useless, particularly this far out, and even more so with a very iffy evolution. I suspect the MTO and ecm might be nearer the money and this is being over hyped at the moment. Of course I have been known to be wrong.

[Nights King]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Again for what it's worth IMO model precipitation charts are useless, particularly this far out, and even more so with a very iffy evolution. I suspect the MTO and ecm might be nearer the money and this is being over hyped at the moment. Of course I have been known to be wrong.

I thought I was in the climate thread for a moment knocks   

We must get lucky sooner or later....

[karlos1983]

NK, have you ever had a winter where you will be showing "0" snow days for the entire winter? Distinct possibility this year

[Mapantz]

My least favourite weather today! Overcast with intermittent bouts of drizzle & rain with a cold wind from the East.

Temp: 7.4°C - Hum: 80% - Dew: 4.2°C - Bar: 900.78hPa - Rain: 1.5mm - Wind: E/NE @ 7mph

[karlos1983]

yes very unpleasant out, will feel worse tomorrow and I have no choice but to be out in it as I'll be watching my boy play football, and it is in the worst location when the breeze is up, very open! 

Edited February 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[Nights King]

54 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

NK, have you ever had a winter where you will be showing "0" snow days for the entire winter? Distinct possibility this year

To be fair it is exceptionally rare to not get snow at least once laying high on Mendip but it might happen.   Even the mildest winters like last 2 i have recorded one day here and there even if it is brief and melts within a couple of hours.

[knocker]

Looking at the fax chart for tomorrow looks pretty damp in these parts.

[knocker]

The METO update at 1510

On Wednesday, rain, sleet and hill snow is expected to move out of Scotland and Northern Ireland and into the north and west of England and Wales. Towards the southeast of England, dry and bright with frost and fog patches. Becoming bright and breezy across Scotland and Northern Ireland, with sunshine and wintry showers. On Thursday, the band of rain, and perhaps snow, is expected to move into southeast England as a weakening feature

[Dorsetbred]

So tempted to drop this into the MAD thread and run

http://www.northmeteo.gr/international-forecasts/uk-weekend-forecast-and-a-look-ahead-to-the-next-week/

I love the bit that goes..(so as this is Valentine's Day, hugs can keep the couples in love warm)

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Dorsetbred

[Chris K]

15 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

So tempted to drop this into the MAD thread and run

http://www.northmeteo.gr/international-forecasts/uk-weekend-forecast-and-a-look-ahead-to-the-next-week/

I love the bit that goes..(so as this is Valentine's Day, hugs can keep the couples in love warm)

 

I thought it was a good, realistic forecast

[Nights King]

I really am speechless can it really be downgrades all the way again? 

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I really am speechless can it really be downgrades all the way again? 

Oh I think so.

                          .

                              .

                                   .

                                       .

                                           .

                                           .

                                           .

Unless of course you live in East Anglia or the South East in which case you'll be glad to see spring in 10days time

Edited February 12, 2016 by Dorsetbred

[Nights King]

My met office app gives me a forecast of 2c Saturday with heavy rain...  f****** splendid.

 

 

 

[khodds]

The local rag is scaremongering just like the daily express. Makes me . Just told them so too!! Idiots.

 

[festivalking]

Winter: the end is nigh not that it started (just one run though )

[kent]

This model watching is an absolute joke. Does any one seriously believe that's what promised will actually materialise. Ive been a member now for ten years and have noticed that year on year the output gets progressively worse. Regarding snow when by sheer chance they actually all agree (two or three days prior to the event) we are then told we need this to go south,we need this to go east, its too marginal, plus another thousand variables that are going to ruin it lol, and something always does. Its a comedy really. But being the eternal optimist like so many others I troll the forums hoping for a favourable outcome only to be cruelly disappointed by the next chart 4 hours later. I really need to find a new hobby. If I had a pound for every misleading chart over the last ten years I would be a millionaire.

[Jason74]

36 minutes ago, kent said:

This model watching is an absolute joke. Does any one seriously believe that's what promised will actually materialise. Ive been a member now for ten years and have noticed that year on year the output gets progressively worse. Regarding snow when by sheer chance they actually all agree (two or three days prior to the event) we are then told we need this to go south,we need this to go east, its too marginal, plus another thousand variables that are going to ruin it lol, and something always does. Its a comedy really. But being the eternal optimist like so many others I troll the forums hoping for a favourable outcome only to be cruelly disappointed by the next chart 4 hours later. I really need to find a new hobby. If I had a pound for every misleading chart over the last ten years I would be a millionaire.

It truly is a circus!

[Glenosnow]

One thing I've noticed with forecast cold spells is that they pretty much always downgrade closer to the so called event....now take next weds/Thurs. ....met o  earlier tweeted a possible disruptive snow event....now I bet closer to the time it will fizzle out to a mushy slushy mess at best....and us southerners more likely to get cold rain.......I would love it to be a great snow event....but it either gets pushed further and further back or it downgrades....sums this winter up for me....Rubbish....