Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[snowbob]

Just now, Snowy L said:

I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter.

As long as we don't go back to missing balloon data

[Snowman.]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Please do correct me if i'm wrong, but that looks like a chart almost on the cusp of reverse zonality?

It's attempting an undercut risk of snow the further east you are. Whether it goes under all the way is a different story.

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter.

ARPEGE is I believe the French's (new?) hi-res model. It's actually doing really well seeing as it backed the UKMO and look what happened there.

Edited January 15, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

As long as we don't go back to missing balloon data

that's it! we must have 'missing data' 

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter.

It's not obscure, just short range.

http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/spip.php?article121&lang=en

" The global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle) is an essential tool for operational weather forecasting at Météo France. This system is fully integrated within the ARPEGE-IFS software that was conceived, developed and maintained in collaboration with ECMWF.  "

[Spah1]

49 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

This is a plot of AAM or atmospheric angular momentum, will share some of my notes made through time.

 

Much appreciated

Thanks

Edited January 15, 2016 by phil nw.
removed long quote

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ARPEGE is I believe the French's new hi-res model. It's actually doing really well seeing as it backed the UKMO and look what happened there.

Great!!!

[stratty]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Great!!!

not so great for Monday on this run though  

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by stratty

[Yarmy]

8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter.

BOM was indeed quite the failure last winter: it finished in 2013. 

[snowray]

So the ARPEGE is not the old BOM model then? Thank heavens for that it was useless!

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, stratty said:

not so great for Monday on this run though  

 

For some reason the dew points are way higher on this run, hence lack of Monday breakdown snow, 850s also warmer but not as great a difference.

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowray said:

So the ARPEGE is not the old BOM model then? Thank heavens for that it was useless!

The French wouldn't come up with such a naff name for a model! ARPEGE sounds very sophisticated and you've got the AROME aswell, not sure if that's a fragrance by Coco Chanel though!

[snowbob]

Any one get the feeling that all models have given us all drama but no action

i mean as we have been hooked all week to every single run of every model have we got blinded by an outcome that was never going to transpire.

i know we do this every winter, but this week was different.

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You're not the only one! lol Its been a long week.

Tell me about it, this week has consisted of waking up, check models on phone for mornings runs, check phone in work at lunch for mid morning runs, get in check models before and after tea, hardly see/speak to family, short break, check 18z for any days changes (usually loads)! Bed, get up, do it again! And for what? So far a bit of sleet. Don't you just love winter 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

Euro4 cracks it as well!!!

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

For some reason the dew points are way higher on this run, hence lack of Monday breakdown snow, 850s also warmer but not as great a difference.

 

The low has pushed further east and there is warm sector.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Any one get the feeling that all models have given us all drama but no action

i mean as we have been hooked all week to every single run of every model have we got blinded by an outcome that was never going to transpire.

i know we do this every winter, but this week was different.

This last 10 days has been something else, I'm blinking knackered, not getting to sleep until gone midnight and waking up at 4am. someyhing better come of this 

Edited January 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, stratty said:

not so great for Monday on this run though  

 

Not bad in N Wales or the Pennines.

[Nick L]

Euro4 now drags the precip for tomorrow night east. It's a good 200 miles east of what GFS shows. ECM and ARPEGE in the middle. The ridiculous uncertainty goes on.

[Costa Del Fal]

17 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Euro4 now drags the precip for tomorrow night east. It's a good 200 miles east of what GFS shows. ECM and ARPEGE in the middle. The ridiculous uncertainty goes on.

Indeed, was just about to post the same. Am now tired of all the differences. A middle ground of the two is probably the safest bet but pure guesswork to be honest. No one has an absolute clue. Never have I had such low confidence in trying to make a forecast at what is now realistically an event less than 24hrs away...maybe or  perhaps not....potentially...

 

I have given up... possibly. Lol!

Edited January 15, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[snowray]

Excellent Euro4 this evening, keeps it cold in the East too ready for Mondays fun and games.

[Woollymummy]

7 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Tell me about it, this week has consisted of waking up, check models on phone for mornings runs, check phone in work at lunch for mid morning runs, get in check models before and after tea, hardly see/speak to family, short break, check 18z for any days changes (usually loads)! Bed, get up, do it again! And for what? So far a bit of sleet. Don't you just love winter 

it's the only time we can get away with it without too much guilt, by always preceding a quick flick through netweather with,"Just checking for snow!" 

[TEITS]

Looking at the 18Z GEFS mean at +144 and to be honest it is dreadful. I would be amazed if the UKMO is proved correct and a return to milder weather is looking very likely in my opinion.  Still im not too disappointed because I didn't expect very much from this current cold spell and said many days ago we are a very long way away from a decent cold spell synoptically speaking.

 

My prediction is the Met O updates will be surprisingly wintry tomorrow morning. However as the UKMO trends towards the ECM/GFS and then so do the fax charts then Sunday morning Met O update will be very different to tomorrows..

[ALL ABOARD]

Just to lighten the mood and give us all some time to destress here are some eye candy charts to help us all sleep !

We can all dream eyyy! 

 

[Jason M]

Meanwhile, The medium term range charts keep churning out the Euro heights . GEFS rock solid behind higher pressure to our south and southeast and strong cross model and intra run agreement.