Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[johnholmes]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL GFS6Z had max's of 2 and 3 across North England next wednesday - the 12z has 10 and 11.

 

the perils of model watching run to run well illustrated there!

 

[snowray]

Euro slug back!

But dangling a new carrot now out at day 12!

Edited February 4, 2016 by snowray

[Purga]

GFS 12z showing a much more invigorated Atlantic with the jet roaring away and powerful systems exiting N America.

Only a brief cooler snap midweek

And - yes - I'm afraid more rain and high winds

FI starts to hint at a bit of a northerly

But then it's FI isn't it!

Edited February 4, 2016 by Purga

[igloo]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Feb used to always be a less Atlantic dominated month, it is very strange to see things so active and mild. I have no idea what is going on any more, no sign of any High Pressure in the next 10 days. This is just weird, and could lead to a very mild Feb and therefore mildest Winter on record.

im not to sure about that feb has always been wet maybe a bit worse over the past 20 years because of the change in weather patterns 

[Ali1977]

Latest run just shows how poor models are at product ing the weather beyond even day 6, the differences can be quite staggering.

Unless the METO change there long range soon I'd be massively surprised if anything other than averagely cold shows up, with possibly a toppler or 2 in the mix. Sustained cold opportunities have gone for this year unfortunately , the SSW isn't helping.

Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring. 

[lukemc]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest run just shows how poor models are at product ing the weather beyond even day 6, the differences can be quite staggering.

Unless the METO change there long range soon I'd be massively surprised if anything other than averagely cold shows up, with possibly a toppler or 2 in the mix. Sustained cold opportunities have gone for this year unfortunately , the SSW isn't helping.

Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring. 

I think that the stratospheric warming could still be the wild card in all of this - I would not be surprised to see better charts from a cold perspective in the next few days as we still do not know what the effect of this stratospheric warming will be remember it can take some time for the implications to come to fruition.  Yes it is the 4th February today and we are still looking at mediocre outputs but with uncertainties regarding the stratosphere and MJO I think it is too early to write off winter yet - remember we can still have conditions conductive to snow in March and even April.

 

Luke

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs run is poor and blows up that mid Atlantic low which then phases with the troughing leaving the ne USA.

The UKMO is better upstream and slower but still looks like blowing up that low, we really need a weaker feature.

Both runs depart from their 00hrs outputs and the problem is the phasing of some deep vorticity near southern Greenland with the low in the Atlantic.

Very frustrating, everything that can go wrong seems to be the default pattern this winter!

[Singularity]

GEFS has finally caught on wrt the MJO, and the bias adjustment is in the right direction too:

 

This brings it in line with what ECMF has been showing for ages.

Looking at some other models, UKME is going crazy with it as usual, but you know what, I like the looks of the Taiwanese effort on the right, which would certainly shake things up a bit during the week of Feb:

  

Not the best track record for that model, unfortunately, but you never know, perhaps this is it's moment to shine! 

The question now is whether it will be enough come late Feb to have a significant effect. Regardless of the changes from the EC-32 and GloSea5 reported by Fergie yesterday, I believe there's a decent chance. Clearly GFS does too, given the more amplified nature of its lower-res output today.

Worth noting too that there has been enough short-term adjustment, toward a nearly +2 amplitude MJO in phase 4, to have some effect on next week. I think that's where ECM managed to find reason to disrupt the Atlantic troughs so much on its 00z run today.

[Cloud 10]

31 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring. 

 

Guaranteed as soon as the search for spring starts,charts like this from the CFS start cropping up.

 

March CFS..

 

 

[Mucka]

Sorry but for me the output is pretty bleak.

If people compare GFS ensembles with those of yesterday or a couple of days ago they have all but wiped out any snow potential to low levels with the mean 850's some 2 or 3C higher than it was.

The issue is the failure to clear the trough through cleanly and low pressure development South of Greenland

The upshot is the faintest waft of colder PM air which doesn't get very far South before the next low is slingshot on a more Northerly trajectory which means SW instead of NW winds and mild and rain instead of cool and wintry.

That low pressure now crossing the country at 144 was previously being modeled to be much weaker and run South with colder air already established, now it is just a bog standard zonal pattern with zero chance of snow to low levels.

UKMO is marginally better but very ordinary mobile weather as well snow on hills and moving the wrong way from this mornings output.

ECM this morning is about the only run that currently offers hope but even that doesn't get the mean below 6C for London before day 8 and even then it is one of the coldest runs in the ensembles with the mean never getting below 6C - there is no good way to spin that I'm afraid.

 

So the Atlantic ridge mid month hope has gone the deferred cold for later Feb has gone and now the last scraps at the table, the cold zonal transient snow have gone.

Another shocking Winter I'm afraid where even the few occasions colder/cooler have been modeled it has been wiped out or massively downgraded to the point of blink and you will miss it.

Sorry for the downbeat post but reality just nicked by optimist hat and used it as a lavatory.

The only hope is the models and Winter mock me by doing a miraculous about turn in the next few days but frankly it is getting tot he time of year where I just want to see the back of yet another endless Autumn.

[nick sussex]

The GEFS are overall dreadful in terms of cold within T240hrs bar a few which don't blow up that low to the west of the UK, its clear that if the upstream troughing phases with that deep low then its game over for any cold within the next ten days.

We have to hope the ECM doesn't follow the GFS and even then need the latter to backtrack quickly.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are overall dreadful in terms of cold within T240hrs bar a few which don't blow up that low to the west of the UK, its clear that if the upstream troughing phases with that deep low then its game over for any cold within the next ten days.

We have to hope the ECM doesn't follow the GFS and even then need the latter to backtrack quickly.

Yup, its all gone downhill at some speed of knots today nick.

Even the GFS ensemble suite looks woeful unless you live on top of a mountain in the north.

UKMO looks slightly better but on the NH view we can see ANOTHER bloody low firing off the eastern seaboard at 144

Its just relentless.

Edited February 4, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Singularity]

Shorter-term, GFS is consistent with stalling out Friday evening's frontal boundary across CS England and extending NE from there, and then invigorating it big-time as pressure lowers to the NW of it and it becomes associated with the newly arrived LP system. The eight charts below show the progression - that's a full 24 hours of rain, 21 hours heavy IMBY!

The totals are a bit higher than the 06z but I daresay they underestimate the potential given the intense rain rates that keep showing up on the likes of ARPEGE and are also mentioned by the Chief Forecaster's assessment with respect to the weather warning the Met Office have put out. 

On the other hand, ARPEGE has more 'wiggling about' of the boundary line than previous runs and so the totals don't focus so much on one area, with the SW more involved:

It also makes less of the overnight rain Fri-Sat with more fizzling out of the occluded front. So plenty left to be resolved in terms of the details. I do think somewhere could get more than 50 mm if there is as little wiggling about as GFS shows.

Got to watch out for the wind gusts too.

 

110 kph is somewhere between 60 and 70 mph I believe?

If so, GFS is less strong with its 50-60 mph projection. Up from 40-50 mph on the 06z, though.

[mb018538]

Looks ruddy awful really, I think people that were trying to look for positives that weren't really there in the medium term.....everything pointed to unsettled being the dominant force for some time still. Nothing has changed sadly. Hoping for some dry weather to show up, I'm certainly getting sick of this incessant wind and rain now!

[Weather Observer]

I was sitting on a bench on the farm earlier this evening, musing as one does on the models and when this current locked in pattern would relent. I looked at my now depleted haystack and wondered whether to clutch at one last straw or even look for the proverbial needle when I realised l was being attacked by mosquitos. Mosquitoes in early February, that really is the last straw.

sorry mods, when I tried to post in other thread an old quote from Knocker kept appearing.

 

[Ali1977]

ECM on meteociel not working, prob decided it's not worth trying as will be wrong !!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Why can we not have true cold polar maritime zonality?  This is the holy grail:  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif and www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif  strong PV to the north-west, no high latitude blocking, but guess what, widespread snowfall over large parts of the country, and its a zonal flow.  It attempted at cold zonality briefly last Saturday, when parts of northern England saw some transient snow falling before a tropical maritime flow of air cut off the polar maritime air. 

Zonality failing to deliver is just in my opinion the worst part of any weather that we get in the UK in the year.  It is a bit like the Feb 2005 easterly when some wonderful synoptics developed but the delivery was poor for most areas.  Just why can polar maritime zonality not establish for a few days without a tropical maritime sector cutting it off.  It is just the orientation that is wrong.

Another very poor winter overall, since the decent 2012-13 winter we have seen two rubbish winters and 2014-15 wasn't exactly special either.  Have we returned to the dreadful 1988 to 2008 era of winters and the so called christmas pudding?

Edited February 4, 2016 by North-Easterly Blast

[John Badrick]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest run just shows how poor models are at product ing the weather beyond even day 6, the differences can be quite staggering.

Unless the METO change there long range soon I'd be massively surprised if anything other than averagely cold shows up, with possibly a toppler or 2 in the mix. Sustained cold opportunities have gone for this year unfortunately , the SSW isn't helping.

Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring. 

Unfortunately, according to some that ain't gonna happen, possible cold, wet and windy Spring on the cards

[wishingforsnow]

It is the winter equivalent of Summer 2012 when from April to September people were searching for any sign of a change from a locked in pattern of wind and rain and Atlantic lows with charts showing hot weather that never materialised, a potential pattern change being hyped up as a 'heatwave' which eventually dowgraded and lasted around a week (Late July 2012) and then back to the norm of rain rain rain for August until September. The recent cold spell of January reminded me of this.

 

So considering that trajectory, in situations like this these weather patterns. last for month and eventually something has to give. And it theoretically should once we get into Spring as the troposphere changes and there is also the potential for the AAM which Singualrity has mentioned. A Westerly mobile Atlantic dominated set up will not be a barrage of storms for much longer. 

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Unfortunately, according to some that ain't gonna happen, possible cold, wet and windy Spring on the cards

I think its a bit early to call the entire spring cold wet and windy from an initial long range forecast/prediction. For instance it now looks like the cold second half to Winter didn't materialise so who knows what will actually happen in Spring. I don't think it will be as wet as Winter was anyway.

Edited February 4, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[phil nw.]

Back on topic please folks.

Thank you.

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM on meteociel not working, prob decided it's not worth trying as will be wrong !!

LOL!!

I wouldnt be at all suprised to see it backtrack to gfs this evening.

FWIW I feel GFS has improved this winter, quite a few times its put ecm to bed when ecm was showing amplified charts .

UKMO, which i once found the number 1 has been a tad disappointing imho, its backtracked quite a few times too.

EDIT not much like gfs at 144 actually.

Edited February 4, 2016 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

There are some big differences between the GFS/ECM and UKMO as early as T96hrs over the ne USA.

This looks like the crucial timeframe because the ECM at T144hrs completely disagrees with both the GFS and UKMO at that timeframe.

The ECM so far looks similar to this mornings output, so either the ECM is slow to pick up on the changes the GFS and UKMO have made or the latter two are completely wrong!

 

[phil nw.]

T144hrs GFS/ECM from wtzl.

Bigger differences by then although both are struggling to get the cold south with the complex trough disruption extending west into the Atlantic.ECM better with sending the jet further se towards Europe at this point.

[Cloud 10]

Out to 168 hrs on wetter,and does seem to be similar to its 00z output

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2016 by Cloud 10
oops!