Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[karlos1983]

Trending Down on the 06z Ensembles

Edited February 22, 2016 by karlos1983

[Yarmy]

25 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Would just like to point out,from what the models are showing us,is temps of 5/6c not 2/3,so on that basis are people not getting carried away with this cold spell?

You tell me.

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wow the 06z is look fantastic!

 

6z is a definite improvement on the same run yesterday with a north-easterly component, sharper ridge, etc.

 

 

Not worth getting hung up on details yet though, especially surface temps and even more so ppn. 

[Kentspur]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

You tell me.

 

6z is a definite improvement on the same run yesterday with a north-easterly component, sharper ridge, etc.

 

 

Not worth getting hung up on details yet though, especially surface temps and even more so ppn. 

That would be perfect for many areas just a shame its still 6 days away and subject to change

[Hotspur62]

Although latest GFS is an upgrade we are still 5 days from a POTENTIAL event from happening(for Southern half of UK) and from past experience the Models have put out upgrades re terms/snow potential only to make downgrades 2/3 days later which turns things into cold rain/sleet as opposed to snow. I appreciate Ian's comments and in an ideal world we would like the clocks to rewind to end of Jan as opposed to end of Feb when chances of snow would be higher imho. I am not trying to be pessimistic but just realistic and hope that we get no downgrades and indeed more upgrades( unlikely I know). As Ian has mentioned timing of things wil also play a part so lets hope if the front does move up from France dragging ENE winds I arrives about 6pm and we can all lamppost watch throughout the evening/night      

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Snowynorth said:

Hi ER

I think you're not understanding the point I'm trying to make.

It is not just the upper air temperatures that defines a cold spell or guarantees snow, it is also vitally important you have other variables favorable down to the surface.

freezing level, dew points and WBT's.

At this time of the year a north easterly or easterly without Europe being pretty cold is completely different to a an east or north easterly during December when Scandanavia and Russia is very cold.

The North Sea temperatures are warmer than average after a relatively mild winter, couple this with not so much cold pooling to the east then you will have significant modification when the air reaches the United Kingdom.

We would need to see much colder pooling to the east and much lower upper 850's for it to bring any significant wintry weather, as a result conditions at the surface would be more favorable, take the freezing level for example.

If we can somehow get a second bit of the cherry albeit with a better flow and Scandanavia/Europe cooling down with some very cold upper 850's the temperature gradient will be much greater with warm SST's which would more than likely lead to convective snow showers in such setup.

At the moment, despite an average of -7 850's  this just won't cut it. 

The perfect setup this time of the year would be a northerly!

 

Well the last cold snap recently had higher dew points than the coming set up and it snowed that was from nw flow so I'm somewhat perplexed by -7 not enough to cut it we seen snow on the south coast in April from as low dew points 

the warmer North Sea temps will help to aid in better convection and with cold air in place across parts of the U.K. I'd think that a ne flow or Arctic flow would be ideal for some convective snowfall.

although features running along the south depending how far south they slide then mixing out cold uppers could well be a feature.

but this mornings ecm and the gfs6z show the Scandinavian deep purples getting closer and closer to the uk which also could well set us up for better instability along with added bonus of frontal systems running threw the channel this also possible.

i got my towel out the ring I'm keeping hold of it until I see a complete breakdown of the cold signal.

Edited February 22, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Well the last cold snap recently had higher dew points than the coming set up and it snowed that was from nw flow so I'm somewhat perplexed by -7 not enough to cut it we seen snow on the south coast in April from as low dew points 

Yes I have to agree with that. -7 uppers are fine for snow. It may struggle to settle during the day because of the time of year, but it's not impossible.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

 That looks good

[fergieweather]

2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

 the UKMO Seasonal Team will shortly update probabilistic expectations for March-April-May.

 

As mentioned earlier today, for those interested, this is now available on UKMO website. It includes discussion re the anticipated SSW early in March (signposted for some time in GloSea5 and now appearing in other models) and potential subsequent impacts; plus El Niño and other factors.

[chris pawsey]

2 hours ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

 That looks good

Amazing... out of all the charts in the world ever I would like this to verify... please??? A near nationwide snow event for mothers day will get me out of going to see the mother in law

Edited February 22, 2016 by chris pawsey
added word 'near'

[Frank Trough]

7 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Amazing... out of all the charts in the world ever I would like this to verify... please??? A nationwide snow event for mothers day will get me out of going to see the mother in law

It's not quite nationwide...my mother-in-law would only have to do battle with a bit of sleet and then some cold rain to come and visit us.

[Frosty.]

It's a cold outlook according to the latest models! feels like winter is going to show itself at last..better late than never.. as they say!

[Purga]

The SE / EA brigade wouldn't kick this GEFS member out of bed

Nice convective showers of snow into Kent & east anglia and running along the south coast - not seen in a long long time.

[sparky1972]

Good afternoon all, looking forward to reading everyone,s views on the potential colder spell and the will it and wont it snow, from a imby perspective all i see is a chilly week ahead temps forecast to be 5/6c  and very dry, fingers crossed that surprise snowfall will show its hand soon, keep up the good work everyone.

[NorthYorksWeather]

39 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

As mentioned earlier today, for those interested, this is now available on UKMO website. It includes discussion re the anticipated SSW early in March (signposted for some time in GloSea5 and now appearing in other models) and potential subsequent impacts; plus El Niño and other factors.

Hi Ian do you have a link to this update? Can't find it on the mobile website. Cheers

[Frosty.]

It really is a cold outlook, almost unbelievable but it's true!..models don't show a return to mild weather..the last throw of the dice of this winter is showing plenty of frosts, at least some wintry showers and potential for disruptive snow! It's been a long extremely painful winter for coldies but let's hope we can take away some good memories from an otherwise vile 3 months!

[nick sussex]

It would be good if central Europe cools down and gets some snow cover because this can help to lower the temps and so the flow if it comes from there is likely to be upgraded in terms of cold.

The issue for the weekend is still what happens to that low near Iceland and how it tracks se and its depth. A shallow feature moving se and then becoming absorbed in the Euro troughing to the se of the UK is the best bet for any frontal snow.

The centre of any low in terms of position will help decide the cold feed into the UK, for the UK low pressure in the northern Med rather than stuck over Iberia because the former helps to cut off the Med flow into western Europe, any milder air is then pulled nw much further to the east.

[fergieweather]

17 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Hi Ian do you have a link to this update? Can't find it on the mobile website. Cheers

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Link isn't working Ian? 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Link isn't working Ian? 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners 

In summary it looks like an average March temperature wise and above average April & May. So I guess we better hope something happens in the next ten days or forget it.

Edited February 22, 2016 by karlos1983

[PLANET THANET]

1 hour ago, chris pawsey said:

Amazing... out of all the charts in the world ever I would like this to verify... please??? A nationwide snow event for mothers day will get me out of going to see the mother in law

not quite nationwide ? on that chart, we down "sarf" miss out but things can and will alter as we have seen in the past!!

 Edit    sorry, just realised the next poster (certain kind of fool ) had already mentioned it not being a nationwide event

Edited February 22, 2016 by PLANET THANET

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners 

In summary it looks like an average March temperature wise .

I thought March is supposed to be colder than average!.. Anyhoo, models look cold for the foreseeable, as does the meto outlook until late March..cold and changeable!

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Certain kind of fool said:

It's not quite nationwide...my mother-in-law would only have to do battle with a bit of sleet and then some cold rain to come and visit us.

 

8 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

not quite nationwide ? on that chart, we down "sarf" miss out but things can and will alter as we have seen in the past!!

 Edit    sorry, just realised the next poster (certain kind of fool ) had already mentioned it not being a nationwide event

I'd quite happily wave goodbye to this winter if Purb 15 linked below comes to fruition

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=15&mode=2&carte=0

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I thought March is supposed to be colder than average!.. Anyhoo, models look cold for the foreseeable, as does the meto outlook until late March..cold and changeable!

I'll be honest Karl, I'm blimmin confused now after the past couple of days thinking we were going to be looking at 10 -15 days of Nirvana. I think I'm just going to observe the models and wait to see what if anything falls from the sky.

 

Edited February 22, 2016 by karlos1983

[sawan]

1 minute ago, Karl. said:

I thought March is supposed to be colder than average!.. Anyhoo, models look cold for the foreseeable, as does the meto outlook until late March..cold and changeable!

As I understand the report would have been prepared during the second week of Feb, hence, a mention of early March SSW related cold event. As it stands the colder conditions have emerged earlier than UKMO anticipated, I guess? 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I think I'm just going to observe the models and wait to see what if anything falls from the sky.

 

Good idea, me too karl

Anyway, synoptically this is a good finale to a desperately poor winter for coldies and March has a good chance of staying cold and changeable.