Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

[Frosty hollows]

13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Something I am looking at tomorrow is in this area.. I can't post up to many charts as at work.. But get looking peeps  

 

Looking good for me!

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Do we know the mechanism that generated the Norfolk/Suffolk MCS this afternoon?  I've seen mention of a convergence zone (presumably at upper levels), but I assumed that the front to the north was still sufficiently distant so as not to influence us yet? 

What features did it have to warrant it being a MCS?

Edited April 14, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Costa Del Fal]

Storms this afternoon seem to be focused only on the convergence zone from EA to the Severn estuary. Just don't the lift exits enough elsewhere for any more storms elsewhere sadly. Notice it is just the same areas seeing any new sferics. So unfortunately, I cannot see many new areas joining in to be honest unless any new late CZ's set up.

The Hi Res models show that the current CZ to not move and no new ones to set up i'm afraid.

Edited April 14, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

What warranted it to be an MCS?

Apologies, I was assuming it to have been an MCS given that it appears to have formed from several separate cells which merged.  I'll refer to it as a multi-cell storm until further notice!

Edited April 14, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Frosty hollows]

I'm just a bit too far south for anything. Had a couple of small showers that came to nothing. Plenty of lovely Cu, but seem pretty well capped. Tomorrow looks better for me, but I may have to settle for Tuesday's 10 minute electrified cloudburst for now

[Dami]

cell coming to me just gave me my second clap of thunder...

[Costa Del Fal]

Just to demonstrate my point above with some images. Clearly the vast majority of sferics along the CZ - one which is not forecast to move much for the rest of today.

[STORMGUY]

somthink is developing to the south of here large line of towering cumlus

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just driven through marble sized hail after seeing an incredible multiple bright white fork striking less than half a mile ahead! Astonishing stuff! But quite scary. A1 at alconbury. 

Just witnessed what sounded like a bomb went off in sawtry 10 mins ago too. Alarms going off and fire brigade out!! Knocked the 3G network out along with it aswell. What a day this is turning out to be! 

Edited April 14, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Mesoscale]

I found this an interesting read, Lightning frequency in Europe.

http://www.vaisala.com/Vaisala%20Documents/Scientific%20papers/2014%20ILDC%20ILMC/ILMC-Friday/Anderson%20and%20Kluggman-A%20European%20lightning%20density%analysis-2014-ILDC-ILMC.pdf

Its funny how in 2012 that one event during the Olympic relay was notable because it gave the UK a huge boost in lightning density.  

[Raidan]

Heavy rain now but not thundery unfortunately.

[Greeny]

This is the residue of a hail shower that hit near Elvedon. Suddenly it was like driving on a road that had snow on it. I was too late to drive through it though unfortunately. The rest of the way was moderate and at one point very heavy rain. At the 3 lane carriageway on the A14 before Cambridge. A distinct wall cloud was visible but I couldnt keep track of it due to the roads unfortunately. It was literally like a rectangular lowering. Someone on our fb group said there were reports of a funnel near Bury as well as the possible one pictured near Thetford.

[Gordon Webb]

just when I though i'd got away with it some coming from the SE at least I think it's heading my way

[Supacell]

Yet again work is done for another day. Things looking rather different than this time yesterday with showers erupting at quite a rate to the south of here in a line from Mid/South Wales to East Anglia. They are heading very slowly northwards too so fingers crossed a storm can get here. If not I may decide to chase but unsure whether to intercept the storms around Northampton or the storms near Tewkesbury.

[Dami]

the cell i think died over bedford. not much rain, no thunder. boo hoo.

[Cheshire Freeze]

37 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Just to demonstrate my point above with some images. Clearly the vast majority of sferics along the CZ - one which is not forecast to move much for the rest of today.

That CZ was progged to be further N though. Very disappointing week here in terms of convective happenings.

[Costa Del Fal]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That CZ was progged to be further N though. Very disappointing week here in terms of convective happenings.

We came so close on Tuesday night and now pretty close today too. Very frustrating but good all the same to see that there have been some pretty potent cells going on so a fairly active start to the storm season for 2016. Hope it continues... just not affecting the same places time and time again though lol!

Edited April 14, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Costa Del Fal]

If that Tewkesbury cell can hold out, a decent chance it would hit here too but can't see it sustaining for too long. Showers are moving north but the thundery elements are not or if they are only very slowly.

[Supacell]

Check out the storm pushing north into Evesham!

[MP-R]

So on Tuesday I was too far northeast, Wednesday too far east, and today too far south lol. Couldn't make it up. Of course I'll get the rain tonight no problem...

All eyes on tomorrow!

[Ben Sainsbury]

This you could say is extremely experimental, as I have no experience just wanted to give this a go for tomorrow!

Forecast: 15/04/2016: 9am – 6pm

We have a low pressure system running through the channel, whilst an occluded front passing SE’wards across the country, originally the risk exists further SW you are, but as we reach mid-afternoon this is where the greatest potential exists, most likely across CS and SE England, up into East Anglia.

With the prospect of a cloudy day, temps of 12-13 at best, we are looking at 300-400 J/Kg of CAPE, along with fairly steep lapse rates. Low Level Wind Shear looks to be highest over SE England, along with Deep Layer Shear at around 20kts. This could see storms becoming organised at times. SRH looks to sit around 100-150m^2s^-2.Therefore there is the chance of the odd funnel cloud, most especially across SE areas. But main risks seem to be Lightning and Strong Wind Gusts; along with intense rainfall as a result of storms merging into longer spells of rain.

Edited April 14, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Gordon Webb]

some bright radar echos in northampton moving N , think I'm safe from that

Edited April 14, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really enjoyed today. Been quite easy chasing these storms, just following the convergence zone northwards! Was interesting how the one over Huntingdon developed. Actually watched the updrafts brew it up and then all hell let loose!! Started off as rapidly rising small cumulus with very strong winds as they passed over me, deviating very quickly to gusty SE winds preceded by inflow type northerlies. 

Edited April 14, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Allseasons-Si]

Cell firing up N of Leicester,whether it will electrify or not,we will see.

Edited April 14, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Ben Sainsbury]

The Storm over Worcester, seems to be a very long-lived potent storm, anyone got any details of anything out of the ordinary?