Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[William Grimsley]

Thank god for that, AJ! We might actually get something tomorrow! *Wishful thinking*

[Snowynorth]

The NMM models show sufficient mixed layer energy during the overnight period. Once this trough weakens we see another slide up during the early hours, could be very interesting for southern and south-eastern parts of England. 

[A.J]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Thank god for that, AJ! We might actually get something tomorrow! *Wishful thinking*

I think we deserve something William, time for the weather gods to look kindly upon us! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'll be up nice and early then for my drive to work ;-)

[William Grimsley]

Yeah, I'm not sure whether to wake myself up or just hopefully get waken up by the thunder itself...

Probably the second option seen as thunder is like finding a needle in a haystack here...

Edited May 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yeah, I'm not sure whether to wake myself up or just hopefully get waken up by the thunder itself...

a good question...lol......I made the dreaded mistake a couple of years ago when storms were forecast in the early hours....I specifically slept downstairs with curtains and windows open, rather than stay up thinking naturally that the lightning/thunder would wake me.....I woke up at 9am thinking there had been no storms only for the wife and kids to tell me about the brilliant storm at 5am, they were upstairs watching it....Wifey said she didn't wake me up because I looked so tired.....TIRED?.....I would look tired because I was bloody asleep !!  .... #gutted 

Edited May 9, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Wilxy]

Torrential downpour here with a rain rate of 47mm an hour!

[William Grimsley]

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a good question...lol......I made the dreaded mistake a couple of years ago when storms were forecast in the early hours....I specifically slept downstairs with curtains and windows open, rather than stay up thinking naturally that the lightning/thunder would wake me.....I woke up at 9am thinking there had been no storms only for the wife and kids to tell me about the brilliant storm at 5am, they were upstairs watching it....Wifey said she didn't wake me up because I looked so tired.....TIRED?.....I would look tired because I was bloody asleep !!  .... #gutted 

Haha, my parents would always wake me up if they were woken up by one, but in the past I've normally woken up as a thunderstorm approaches...

[TropicThunder]

I start work at 3.30am, and not once in the four years I've been getting up at that time have I witnessed lightning on my drive into work.

I'm pretty sure if this were the 90's I would have witnessed plenty, given that all nighters seemed to be a relatively regular thing when I was growing up (and I was terrified of storms back then).

Rare as rocking horse poo now. 

[Harry]

22 minutes ago, Snowynorth said:

The NMM models show sufficient mixed layer energy during the overnight period. Once this trough weakens we see another slide up during the early hours, could be very interesting for southern and south-eastern parts of England. 

Lovely!!!! That's what I like to hear! It's so warm and humid here, Windows will be wide open tonight (though may have to drown out road noise for GoT)

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a good question...lol......I made the dreaded mistake a couple of years ago when storms were forecast in the early hours....I specifically slept downstairs with curtains and windows open, rather than stay up thinking naturally that the lightning/thunder would wake me.....I woke up at 9am thinking there had been no storms only for the wife and kids to tell me about the brilliant storm at 5am, they were upstairs watching it....Wifey said she didn't wake me up because I looked so tired.....TIRED?.....I would look tired because I was bloody asleep !!  .... #gutted 

 The same thing happened to me on holiday in Wales.  28th of July 2008. I've not slept for 36 hours while nowcasting  and then I decided to get some sleep before what I thought would be the main event. I slept through it all and nobody bothered waking me up  despite the fact i'd been talking non-stop about it all day and I was only 13 at the time.  I take storm action very seriously, especially back then with less real-time data available to me. Still haven't really got over it, although I suppose it's just made me more passionate. 

[William Grimsley]

Just got some patches of Altocumulus cloud here, no Altocumulus Castellanus cloud as far as I can see... @ajpoolshark, you know when you got that thunderstorm and you were "prepared" for it, was the thunderstorm risk very high or was it just luck? Was the chance like tonight or?

Edited May 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[MattTarrant]

I

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Just got some patches of Altocumulus cloud here, no Altocumulus Castellanus cloud as far as I can see... @ajpoolshark, you know when you got that thunderstorm and you were "prepared" for it, was the thunderstorm risk very high or was it just luck? Was the chance like tonight or?

There's a lot of low cloud here in East Devon and looked looked similar on your webcam. A lot of moisture around though just need it to clear really.

[A.J]

the risk was high, as is the divorce risk for the wifey if she ever pulls that stunt again 

[knocker]

Not looking that clever tomorrow. The main lightning potential South Wales Bristol area.

[William Grimsley]

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

the risk was high, as is the divorce risk for the wifey if she ever pulls that stunt again 

I have to say, these thunderstorms are so rare and when you miss them because you weren't awake is terrible. I can only remember sleeping through one thunderstorm recently and that was in the early hours of the legendary day of the 28th June 2012. I was quite worried about thunderstorms back then so it was probably a good thing I wasn't awake. LOL.

Edited May 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[A.J]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not looking that clever tomorrow. The main lightning potential South Wales Bristol area.

anything down your neck of the woods as the moment Knocks?......some lively thundery showers not too far away

[Allseasons-Si]

28 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a good question...lol......I made the dreaded mistake a couple of years ago when storms were forecast in the early hours....I specifically slept downstairs with curtains and windows open, rather than stay up thinking naturally that the lightning/thunder would wake me.....I woke up at 9am thinking there had been no storms only for the wife and kids to tell me about the brilliant storm at 5am, they were upstairs watching it....Wifey said she didn't wake me up because I looked so tired.....TIRED?.....I would look tired because I was bloody asleep !!  .... #gutted 

LOL

doesn't your wifey know that you are a storm geek just just like the most of us,

great post though and worthy of a +10 ,set the alarm next time

[knocker]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

anything down your neck of the woods as the moment Knocks?......some lively thundery showers not too far away

It was quite clear until recently but it's looking a trifle black towards the south east but nothing obvious cloud wise.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I have to say, these thunderstorms are so rare and when you miss them because you weren't awake is terrible. I can only remember sleeping through one thunderstorm recently and that was in the early hours of the legendary day of the 28th June 2012. I was quite worried about thunderstorms back then so it was probably a good thing I wasn't awake. LOL.

What a day that was. May have been the remnants of that storm that then mutated into US style supercells in Lincolnshire later that day! 

[Supacell]

Someone mentioned earlier the storm of 9th May 2011. I remember that one well. I could see there was some good potential around the West Midlands and was planning to chase only for my then girlfriend to throw a strop at me "putting chasing storms over her". Feeling guilty I decided I could afford to sit that one out and spend the evening with her instead, how I regretted that decision . Five years on, and several storms later I still feel a little jab in the ribs every time I think about it  

Looking at tonight and tomorrow. It looks as if the forecast is universally calling for anything that does develop further south to break up and disintegrate as it reaches Derby. However, temperatures today have been up around 25c for the second day running. It would be nice for something to develop here and elsewhere. Tomorrow looks more favourable for southern areas as cloud amounts will likely scupper any chances here. The south could well see some homegrown storms tomorrow afternoon/evening. I am also interested in Wednesday as any breaks to the south of the front/rain band could well promote some decent pulse type thunderstorms.

[IMP757]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

What a day that was. May have been the remnants of that storm that then mutated into US style supercells in Lincolnshire later that day! 

I remember it well, was so awesome!

[A.J]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

LOL

doesn't your wifey know that you are a storm geek just just like the most of us,

great post though and worthy of a +10 ,set the alarm next time

she just thinks I'm a geek, period....lol

[Alicol]

Does anyone remember the 4 July storm of 2001? I was on the way to work at the time and the sheer ferocity of it scared the life out of me

[StormChaseUK]

9th/10th Mays have always been quite good

This one is from 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrGjMB_LPo