Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[A.J]

10 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Someone mentioned earlier the storm of 9th May 2011. I remember that one well. I could see there was some good potential around the West Midlands and was planning to chase only for my then girlfriend to throw a strop at me "putting chasing storms over her". Feeling guilty I decided I could afford to sit that one out and spend the evening with her instead, how I regretted that decision . Five years on, and several storms later I still feel a little jab in the ribs every time I think about it  

Looking at tonight and tomorrow. It looks as if the forecast is universally calling for anything that does develop further south to break up and disintegrate as it reaches Derby. However, temperatures today have been up around 25c for the second day running. It would be nice for something to develop here and elsewhere. Tomorrow looks more favourable for southern areas as cloud amounts will likely scupper any chances here. The south could well see some homegrown storms tomorrow afternoon/evening. I am also interested in Wednesday as any breaks to the south of the front/rain band could well promote some decent pulse type thunderstorms.

just to rub it in, I did have a thread on my footage for this storm (somewhere in the NW archives) but here's some of my pics...it was a monster!

 

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

9th/10th Mays have always been quite good

This one is from 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrGjMB_LPo

The video is private mate

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 May 2016

ISSUED 19:19 UTC Mon 09 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper low continues to sit west of Iberia, with a surface low forming close to a waving frontal boundary across southern Britain on Tuesday. Overall, the risk of lightning in any one location is considered quite low, but two SLGT areas have been issued to highlight zones of slightly better potential, albeit still quite low-end.

A combination of insolation and low-level wind convergence may allow a couple of heavy showers / thunderstorms to form over SW Ireland, before more general showery precipitation arrives from the east later in the day. 

Meanwhile, to the south of a zone of showery precipitation (with embedded convective elements) across Wales - Midlands - East Anglia, some insolation may develop across southern counties of England, and coupled with a very moist low-level air mass and wind convergence, there is potential for scattered heavy showers and a couple thunderstorms here also. However, biggest uncertainties are the extent of cloud cover and whether sufficient insolation can develop to generate deep convection. Furthermore, depending on exact developments with wrap-around process, if cloud breaks do extend farther west towards the SW Peninsula (which is possible), then the SLGT would in theory need to be extended to here also - but current conflicting guidance reduces confidence here somewhat.

Given low cloud bases and low-level convergence, there is potential for a few funnel/weak tornado reports.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-10

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 May 2016

ISSUED 19:51 UTC Mon 09 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper low west of Biscay will begin to flatten and expand W-E on Wednesday. At the surface, a slow-moving frontal boundary will tend to stall across northern England / north Wales. To the south of this boundary, slack flow (with local convergence zones) and developing insolation, in an environment with steepening lapse rates, will generate a few scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. 

DLS is weak and so any showers/storms that do develop will be poorly organised, limiting their severe potential significantly. However, given moist air mass (PWAT in upper 20s mm) and considering slow storm motion, then greatest risk will be from minor surface water flooding from prolonged downpours. Hail locally up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cores.

Attention is also given to showers/thunderstorms that may develop over the BeNeLux countries during Wednesday, as these may drift westwards to affect parts of East Anglia / SE England during the early hours of Thursday, albeit while probably weakening as they drift across the North Sea.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-11

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

The video is private mate

Try now should be public

[Supacell]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

just to rub it in, I did have a thread on my footage for this storm (someone in the NW archives, but here's some of my pics...it was a monster!

Ha ha, thank you so much for that AJ 

In all seriousness though, some great pictures and does show a bit of how fierce that storm was.

I am liking the look of the forecasts from Convective Weather UK, as I thought Wednesday holds some interest for me. My local forecast also said that rain moving in tonight could be quite thundery ..... fingers crossed.

[Wilxy]

8/9th may 2008 had a decent storm lasting for 6 hours around these parts does appear to be a good time for storms overall.

[viking_smb]

10 minutes ago, Alicol said:

Does anyone remember the 4 July storm of 2001? I was on the way to work at the time and the sheer ferocity of it scared the life out of me

I remember that mate, I was in school that day and my rough collie she jumped up on my bed as she was scared love her.

[Alicol]

Just now, viking_smb said:

I remember that mate, I was in school that day and my rough collie she jumped up on my bed as she was scared love her.

I ended up on the top of Caerphilly mountain taking a shortcut - I know they say that a car is the safest place to be but when that's a Daewoo Matiz it didn't give much confidence! 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Alicol said:

I ended up on the top of Caerphilly mountain taking a shortcut - I know they say that a car is the safest place to be but when that's a Daewoo Matiz it didn't give much confidence! 

it was a bad storm though, would never forget it, our collie called skye who was a blue merle rough collie was trembling like mad, but she slept on my bed with me for a cuddle, but looking at the moment the storm near lands end looks like it is dying.

[Allseasons-Si]

@Supacell and @ajpoolshark

don't take this in a kinky way but our lass bought these a few years back,they are the best thing she bought,now wheres my car keys

back on topic,is that storm in the channel heading north now,anyone in Falmouth/st Austell area?

 

 

 

[Bolt from the Blue]

14 minutes ago, Alicol said:

Does anyone remember the 4 July storm of 2001? I was on the way to work at the time and the sheer ferocity of it scared the life out of me

Yes remember it well, it was my induction day at secondary school. It came over at about 8:15 when I was at the bus stop

[Carl46Wrexham]

20 minutes ago, Alicol said:

Does anyone remember the 4 July storm of 2001? I was on the way to work at the time and the sheer ferocity of it scared the life out of me

Doubt I will ever forget the thunderstorms of July 3rd/4th 2001, no matter how long I live. Never seen storms as ferocious as that night. Lightning rates were in excess of 80 per minute. 

My old man told me that as severe as they were, July 1st and 2nd 1968 were on another level again. There were at least 9 separate large thunderstorm cells came through my part of the world, one of which damaged many greenhouses thanks to the 50mm hailstones which fell. The rainfall was red as a result of Saharan dust with had been swept northwards by the Spanish plume which resulted in the epic storms.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Alicol]

6 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

it was a bad storm though, would never forget it, our collie called skye who was a blue merle rough collie was trembling like mad, but she slept on my bed with me for a cuddle, but looking at the moment the storm near lands end looks like it is dying.

 

 

Been keeping an eye on Blitzortung and it looks like Devon/Cornwall might expect something in a couple of hours, I don't hold out much hope for us in South East Wales - I'm in the Rhondda so they tend to die before they get here. Hope you get a better result!

Edited May 9, 2016 by Alicol
forgot to add location

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

May 2006 got off to a cracker I'm sure too, especially for Scotland on May 10th that year. Remember my Scottish family calling saying they've never seen anything like it, up in Ayrshire. 

[William Grimsley]

Just a quick update, we have Altocumulus Castellanus clouds with virga now here! That is special!

Edited May 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[stevofunnelcl]

Storms in channel seem to be moving north

South Coast of Cornwall (incoming)

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Supacell and @ajpoolshark

don't take this in a kinky way but our lass bought these a few years back,they are the best thing she bought,now wheres my car keys

back on topic,is that storm in the channel heading north now,anyone in Falmouth/st Austell area?

 

With regards to my ex I would have needed some of this too   

 

I am not sure if anyone is there to report back but some webcams around Cornwall can be found here:

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/Penzance_Webcam.html

 

[Chris.R]

26 minutes ago, Alicol said:

Does anyone remember the 4 July storm of 2001? I was on the way to work at the time and the sheer ferocity of it scared the life out of me

 Never forget it. Nothing like it since then. It's what I think started my love of them.   Came up from Wales in the early hours. I was only 7  but I vividly recall the forks of  Lightning every five seconds or so and the constant funder for over two hours.  If we only had something like that again. What a storm, although it was a bit scary have to admit. 

[MP-R]

I remember all those storms that have been mentioned, except May 2011 when I was living in Egham.

May 27th and 29th 1999 / July 04th 2001 / May 10th 2004 / June 24th and 28th 2005 / May 10th 2006 / June 19th 2007 / May 09th 2008 / July 18th/19th 2014 all stand out as corkers in my memory. Obviously there were others in between but not on the level of those listed. May has often been the best month for thundery weather.

[Alicol]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Never forget it. Nothing like it since then. It's what I think started my love of them.   Came up from Wales in the early hours. I was only 7  but I vividly recall the forks of  Lightning every five seconds or so and the constant funder for over two hours.  If we only had something like that again. What a storm, although it was a bit scary have to admit. 

 

I've always loved storms and earlier there were comments about people being able to smell thunder, I think it's like cordite with that sharp metallic smell. I'll never forget that journey it was like heading into a war zone, absolutely terrifying but still able to appreciate the power of nature - an amazing experience.

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I remember all those storms that have been mentioned, except May 2011 when I was living in Egham.

May 27th and 29th 1999 / July 04th 2001 / May 10th 2004 / June 24th and 28th 2005 / May 10th 2006 / June 19th 2007 / May 09th 2008 / July 18th/19th 2014 all stand out as corkers in my memory. Obviously there were others in between but not on the level of those listed. May has often been the best month for thundery weather.

What about July 2013 think it was the 19th or 20th a storm moved up the bristol channel coast from Weston super mare up towards Avonmouth area, that would have passed right over your house.

[Ben Sainsbury]

One I do vividly remember was a Spanish Plume event about 4-5 years ago, I was camping in Barnstaple and the sheer amount of thunder and lightning was incredible! All night we were treated. Yet had no mobile data therefore could not looking at the radar etc. Nevertheless great memories being the 11 year old enthusias at the time aha.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Dale Hay]

23rd July 2013 was an ace one, the ATD on here struggled to load on my laptop due to the thousands of strikes - did get some screen caps from it too, not sure where I've put them though. Think there was like 85,000+ strikes that day?

 

Back to today, well, this evening, still the odd shower here and there, but nothing besides that.

[William Grimsley]

13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

One I do vividly remember was a Spanish Plume event about 4-5 years ago, I was camping in Barnstaple and the sheer amount of thunder and lightning was incredible! All night we were treated. Yet had no mobile data therefore could not looking at the radar etc. Nevertheless great memories being the 11 year old enthusias at the time aha.

Haha, yes. I feel that the thunderstorms in Summer 2014 were a reward for me both doing and completing my GCSE's. LOL.

Edited May 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Paul]

Worth tuning into the storm chase stream at the moment - the team are on a severe warned storm. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=