Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Nick F]

13 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

just wondering when you say cape will sustain only for short periods why what happens ?

Because of the lack of directional and speed wind shear to separate updrafts and downdrafts, strong updrafts from the high CAPE environment may not sustain for long before they are choked off by the downdraft. However, updrafts may sustain long enough to produce marginally large hail, pulses of torrential rain and bouts of frequent lightning.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Nick F

[Boro Snow]

18.1c here at the mo not sure if i will see a storm today but will defo be watching the radar

[Harry]

15 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Hmm, any potential stormy action looks to happen whilst I'm in training after work. Boo!

I'm desperate to get the gym tonight having not been over the weekend - however, should storms appear in my neck of the woods, that'll be practically impossible I'm afraid to say  

[Gordon Webb]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Pulse storms that form and then dissipate Quickly.

perhaps that explains over the years when I've seen showers / storms on radar that look quite nasty before they apporach me but are much weaker or actually gone when they reach me hmm interesting always wondered what caused that

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Because of the lack of directional and speed wind shear to separate updrafts and downdrafts, strong updrafts from the high CAPE environment may not sustain for long before they are choked off by the downdraft. However, updrafts may sustain long enough to produce marginally large hail, pulses of torrential rain and bouts of frequent lightning.

so with higher shear the more sevfere elements of the storm last longer eg torrential rain hail lightning can be sustained for longer periods of time , so todays storms will have stronger elements in it just not for long amounts of time least thats how I read it as

[Supacell]

Look for decaying storms as the downdrafts from them could promote an environment for new cells to form. This has happened the last few days where a storm builds, decays and then seems to rebuild somewhere nearby.

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

so with higher shear the more sevfere elements of the storm last longer eg torrential rain hail lightning can be sustained for longer periods of time , so todays storms will have stronger elements in it just not for long amounts of time least thats how I read it as

Exactly that in higher CAPE environments.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Supacell

[Tempest]

Took this pic yesterday in Dumfries whilst waiting on a hot bus to go to next pick up point. It got me excited but was too far away . Hope today offers more in the way of storms even though it says 0 thunder chance for my area . Actually, that confuses me a bit because my area is covered by the marginsl risk!

[Windblade]

Very, very warm and humid in london at the moment. No idea on temps as I'm inside at the mo, but being this warm already is a good sign. Fingers crossed we get something later on this evening. Good luck to everyone today. 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Windblade

[Tempest]

Thankfully metcheck and meteox are showing a good possibility of thunder in my neck of the woods. Day off so maybe i can storm chase 

[William Grimsley]

Too much cloud and drizzle here this morning, but very humid, we'll have to see what happens later.

[Gordon Webb]

seems a marked temperature drop in that time period

[Nick F]

13 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

so with higher shear the more sevfere elements of the storm last longer eg torrential rain hail lightning can be sustained for longer periods of time , so todays storms will have stronger elements in it just not for long amounts of time least thats how I read it as

Yep, pretty much. Through where storms form along wind convergence they could sustain locally despite weak shear environment

After mostly hazy milky blue skies so far this morning, altocumulus field rolling in from the south here in s. London ahead of storm south of Brighton.

[Gordon Webb]

had a look at the wind chart to look for convergence to see where it might be today don't understand the damn thing so is one expected today and that must be an extensive bit of cloud if the storm is still south of Brighton

[StormChaseUK]

If I was a betting man I would go for Malvern and Milton Keynes today.

[Harry]

19 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

seems a marked temperature drop in that time period

Seems to be based on where the model anticipates showers/storms to develop.

UKMO precip forecast has been all over the place the past 12 hours, recently showing a great swathe of the SE quarter under widespread thunderstorms. Now Kent/Sussex is a favoured focal point.

As ever, has to be taken with a pinch of salt but the extent/coverage/location of where it anticipates precipitation to occur is extremely erratic.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Harry

[alexisj9]

Sky has gone from clear to lot's of ac cas around, good luck to people north of me.

[weatherobsuk]

Euro4 and NNM looks favorable to me, was up and about at 7am with crystal clear skies and some AcCas building, which has now completely covered over and humidity levels continually on the rise.

[William Grimsley]

Incredibly humid when I got out of the car just, felt like walking into a sauna! 17.3°C humidity 93%!

Just had some hazy sunshine and can see on satellite some Cumulus cloud growing to my SW.

Edited June 7, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Harry]

Not particularly humid feeling around London, just pleasantly warm.

[Azazel]

got a banging headache again today if that means anything:p

[alexisj9]

There's now a storm to the East of me, north sea, and south of me Channel. 

[William Grimsley]

Nest cam live stream now looking south again, hopefully when the cloud clears from the south, some Cumulus cloud bubbling up should be visible to the SW: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

[Supacell]

Very rapid storm development across Scotland near to Braemar and also Lanark. Nothing to storm in around half an hour. Signs of things to come further south this afternoon I hope.

[biggreyface]

2 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

Yep probably hanging around here reading forecasts potential and reports isn't doing me any good but it's a habit i seemed to have developed perhaps i should try and stop

Don't stop posting Gordon it's a forum about the weather love it or loathe it .what is the worst that can happen getting killed by lightning  me personally I can think of worse ways to die and I know there would be some chuckles at my funeral