Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[IanR]

nothing here

[IanR]

looks like midlands southwards going to have the best chance tommorrow,  again 

[weather09]

Aye, looking forward to another round of storms tomorrow.  Then again Thursday. Keep 'em coming. 

[Staffordshire]

I pray I get something over the next 2 days, I just can't believe how bad my luck has been, not heard a single rumble of thunder yet this year and seemingly everywhere else around me has

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, MartinD said:

 

I was in Pershore today around 3pm but i never saw that unfortunately, mainly because i was driving through the town and looking out the windscreen and trying to eat my fish and chips simply isn't possible... Hope for some more storm developments in the West Midlands tomorrow though.

I almost saw a funnel too, but unable to reach for the camera as I was completing a waxwork of Ruby Styler with one hand, whilst back-combing a gopher with the other. The police don't take kindly to this, especially when reversing up the M40 doing a handstand at 102 mph, oops I mean 65...

hehehe

 

[MartinD]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I almost saw a funnel too, but unable to reach for the camera as I was completing a waxwork of Ruby Styler with one hand, whilst back-combing a gopher with the other. The police don't take kindly to this, especially when reversing up the M40 doing a handstand at 102 mph, oops I mean 65...

hehehe

 

Well doing 65mph on the M40 just isn't on! lol

So in peoples opinion where looks best for tomorrow? I think Birmingham south and hopefully Worcester looks best for tomorrow, Will be on the road around the midlands all day at work so fingers crossed we all get something spectacular again.  

[A.J]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I almost saw a funnel too, but unable to reach for the camera as I was completing a waxwork of Ruby Styler with one hand, whilst back-combing a gopher with the other. The police don't take kindly to this, especially when reversing up the M40 doing a handstand at 102 mph, oops I mean 65...

hehehe

 

imitation is the greatest form of flattery.....a very pale imitation though, it has to be said...lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Great to see the BBC weather tweeted a post containing an image I sent to the BBC Weather watchers page earlier featuring the angry skies above us earlier. 

Tomorrow and Thursday look equally as promising.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Today was another rather pathetic day convectively speaking. Thought we would get something but no storms for 70 miles in all directions.

 

tomorrow holds potential but truth be told it's probably going to be more of the same in and around london . Pah!

[paul_montague]

Hey Mother nature thanks for the good weather for the IOW festival. All packed up done and dusted so bring on the storms.

[Raidan]

Not going to get excited as will see nothing is usually the case but BBC forecast wasn't to bad for my part of the UK today. 

[The PIT]

Another storm free day coming up. 

[SteveB]

4 hours ago, Raidan said:

Not going to get excited as will see nothing is usually the case but BBC forecast wasn't to bad for my part of the UK today.

We've missed out on all the fun and games so far, so not expecting that to change today.

Edited June 15, 2016 by SteveB

[andymusic]

11 minutes ago, SteveB said:

We've missed out on all the fun and gams o far, so not expecting that to change today.

you're either using reverse psychology or not aware of the fun the south west and Wales should have today and tomorrow - enjoy (hopefully)

[Chris.R]

GFS seems to be  showing a lot of CAPE (upto 1050 J/KG)  for this area, but that's assuming that temps  Will reach 20°C. 

[Raidan]

50 minutes ago, SteveB said:

We've missed out on all the fun and gams o far, so not expecting that to change today.

Me neither to be honest, here in Bristol the storm shield doesn't work January through to the end of May so have a few thundery downpours or storms this year but as soon as summer starts and conditions are right its soon up and running and we miss out this post from Ben sums it up perfectly.

 

16 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

When we receive the sunshine and shower setup, this always happens... (Kinda)

 

[Raidan]

47 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you're either using reverse psychology or not aware of the fun the south west and Wales should have today and tomorrow - enjoy (hopefully)

Really hope your right Andy i think today and tomorrow does look good but i dont think anything will happen here i hope it does but at the moment im agreeing with SteveB.

[SteveB]

24 minutes ago, Raidan said:

Me neither to be honest, here in Bristol the storm shield doesn't work January through to the end of May so have a few thundery downpours or storms this year but as soon as summer starts and conditions are right its soon up and running and we miss out this post from Ben sums it up perfectly.

 

 

Yup, I would really like to know why it is, I guess it's something to do with the Bristol Channel & the mountains in Wales!

Have a look in the South West thread to see the chart Knocker posted, notice the area were there is no precip - yep along the Bristol channel coast.

Edited June 15, 2016 by SteveB

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 15 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 16 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:46 UTC Tue 14 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Very little change to the overall evolution - sharpening upper trough over the British Isles with cool(ing) mid-levels atop a moist surface airmass. Daytime heating will generate 400-700 Jkg-1 MLCAPE which, combined with forced ascent along areas of frictional convergence due to slack surface pressure and small areas of low pressure, will generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Like Tuesday, unidirectional winds with height will lead to another day of pulse-type activity, with short-duration lightning activity per individual storm. Some marginally-better DLS will be present towards the SW peninsula which may allow cells to become a little more organised, but overall another day of messy convection is anticipated.

Broad risk of lightning, hence the large SLGT, although given activity will be mainly focussed along areas of convergence (which NWP suggests will be most pronounced from Norfolk through the Midlands to Wales and/or the West Country) there are likely to be quite a few locations that remain lightning- (if not, even shower-) free. The extent of lightning over the SW peninsula is questionable due to excessive cloud from old occlusion debris which may inhibit insolation to some extent.

Low cloud bases and areas of low-level convergence will promote the chance for a few funnel clouds or even a brief weak tornado. Hail up to 1.0cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells, along with the ongoing threat for local flash flooding given prolonged downpours and/or elements of along-flow shower training.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-15

[Frosty hollows]

Lots and lots of convection already here. Big towers going up with grey bases. Also seems to be the higher cloud present is moving in a different direction to the towers

[Spikecollie]

I've the same here in France! Short shower soaked me coming back from the local shop! What causes that opposite movement? My TCUs are moving in the opposite direction of the higher clouds...

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Yup, I would really like to know why it is, I guess it's something to do with the Bristol Channel & the mountains in Wales!

Have a look in the South West thread to see the chart Knocker posted, notice the area were there is no precip - yep along the Bristol channel coast.

The instability yesterday was further north - the low has come south since and the instability has come with it - so we should get a few days of storms now

[Spikecollie]

Sun's out now and the temp is shooting up. Soil's too wet for gardening though and it's too risky for a bike ride! Looks like work...I have phone clients in an hour...

[Chris.R]

 It's a sunny morning here, properly sunny for the first time this week. Already 17.6°C.  You wouldn't think the pressure was so low. Perhaps those CAPE  projections I mentioned will be  realised later the way this temp is  rising. 

[chapmanslade]

47 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I've the same here in France! Short shower soaked me coming back from the local shop! What causes that opposite movement? My TCUs are moving in the opposite direction of the higher clouds...

Wind speed can differ at different altitude. Sometimes they are the same direction but appear to move opposite directions as the eyes like to pick one item as a fixed reference to relate other items to. Think about sitting in a train with the one next to you pulling out and you sometimes think you are moving but aren't. Of course you can have wind speeds and directions completely different at different altitudes - known as shear