Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Mucka]

Not bad agreement between UKMO and GFS on the broad-scale with GFS being a little more progressive.

I doubted UKMO yesterday but the other models have moved toward it today.

[SMU]

Afternoon 

Well a topsy turvy 24 hours sees the GHs removed-

interestingly the UKMO 12z has us in chilly Easterlies out to 144 with no sign of a breakdown- infact it looks very similar to the GEM 00z -

an interesting day- & from a coldie POV id rather the prospect of cold just holding off until the start of Nov - just so there is a more substantial cold pool to tap into

[Mucka]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon 

Well a topsy turvy 24 hours sees the GHs removed-

interestingly the UKMO 12z has us in chilly Easterlies out to 144 with no sign of a breakdown- infact it looks very similar to the GEM 00z -

an interesting day- & from a coldie POV id rather the prospect of cold just holding off until the start of Nov - just so there is a more substantial cold pool to tap into

Even the GFS "breakdown" looks as though it could be fairly temporary Steve with the trough likely forced into Scandi with the prospect of  Atlantic ridge behind. At least the PV is not setting up over Canada/Greenland as far as I can tell?

 

GEM hanging on to a continental flow out to day 8

Edited October 18, 2016 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

This FI is what we want going into Nov, seems to tie in with what some of the more knowledgable are suggesting could happen. 

Edited October 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[booferking]

Dream charts slowly disappering but still looks rather settled which is nice for this time of the year, hopefully what we were seeing a couple of days ago appear again come middle/end nov so we can tap into the proper cold stuff☺☺

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This FI is what we want going into Nov, seems to tie in with what some of the more knowledgable are suggesting could happen. 

 

Winter would be arriving early if that came off Ali, especially if the pattern set up a few hundred miles further West.

Oh Fantasy Island, how you tease us so...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FI but surely no-one can complain at this, warm, settled in 0ct! wanna see it continuing as a trend

[phil nw.]

Some posts with no model discussion have been removed.

Throw away one liners with no model discussion are unacceptable in this thread so to those who have seen their posts disappear please think before posting again-thankyou.

[SMU]

The easiest summary of the 12z suite...

'Something for everyone'

a bit of late warmth + some early season cold at the end-

no sign of a sustained vortex building..

Gonna be another 6 - 7 days before any change so - enjoy the quiet 'continental' weather

Edited October 18, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Ruben Amsterdam]

GFS inching closer to a reversal in zonal mean winds at 10hPa? Most interesting chart of the suite I would say. 

[mb018538]

GFS 12z has some almost BBQ weather showing in the south! Temps up to the high teens....still no sign of any Atlantic steam train yet. Very peculiar to get almost 2/3 through the autumn season without a zonal spell.

[Ali1977]

The QBO is doing something unusual this year by not following its usual year on year pattern, is there a link there as to how the Northern Hem is also deviating away from a standard autumnal pattern - once again none of the GFS ENS are establishing any kind on Greenland PV...

[Frosty.]

This evening's GEM 12z ends on a high note, nice charts these for late october.

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

It will be interesting to see if the gfs goes back towards building heights to our north west in week 2. The operationals were very keen on this not so long ago. I wonder if it is going to be one of those ocassions when an idea is picked up on, then ditched and then picked up again. All the models are prone to this and I suppose that makes sense when all the variables are constantly changing.

Well, as if by magic, the gfs op delivered with regards to my post above, and then some. Lets see if the ecm op begins to build those all important heights to our north west by day 10. Although it looks like the crucial moment will be post day 10.

[January Snowstorm]

It looks very clear to me that the models are quickly picking up a new signal of more atlantic type weather in 7-10 days.

Heights are vanishing to our North to be replaced with blues and purples over Greenland.

As others have said too early for Winter anyway so maybe best that we get a 2nd bite in Nov

[Matthew.]

The ECM tonight ends on a interesting development of warm air moving north from the south 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows it looking rather cool with some fine weather but also showers, mainly in the east with some patchy slight night frosts and mist / fog patches where winds are light and skies clear. Later in the run shows an anticyclone briefly building in from the southwest introducing milder air but then low pressure develops to the n / nw and at least temporarily interrupts the largely benign picture, at least away from the south.

Edited October 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[weirpig]

Well the ec keeps us in a very familiar pattern  no sign of the Atlantic quiet and Benin conditions.  

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, as if by magic, the gfs op delivered with regards to my post above, and then some. Lets see if the ecm op begins to build those all important heights to our north west by day 10. Although it looks like the crucial moment will be post day 10.

ECM op plays ball and looks very interesting by day 10. Heights rise to our north west with a northerly blast heading for the UK. It has been known to overdo these heights in the past but I am always much more confident when it is backed up by the GFS - which it is! The usual caveats apply and we now need to count down from day 10 over the next few days. Let the roller coaster of winter 16/17 begin

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

GFS inching closer to a reversal in zonal mean winds at 10hPa? Most interesting chart of the suite I would say. 

I also subscribe to your opinion. It's all looking very interesting indeed. Compare & contrast to this time last year...!!

[SMU]

2 hours ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

GFS inching closer to a reversal in zonal mean winds at 10hPa? Most interesting chart of the suite I would say. 

Hi Ruben

yes this fits in with the global ensemble mean for the Zonal wind rapidly decreasing

 

All - ^^^ This is why the models keep going for a lot of northerly blocking !

S

[Sperrin]

Hi guys, could you explain what Ruben's chart is indicating for the novices here? Cheers. 

[Ruben Amsterdam]

14 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Hi guys, could you explain what Ruben's chart is indicating for the novices here? Cheers. 

To me it shows that, in contrast to last year and I would say "normal" circumstances, the stratospheric vortex is not in a state of uninhibited intensification, centered over the north pole. On the contrary, we see heights rising over the Eastern Russian/Canadian sector and as a result the vortex is displaced. This might (!!) cause mean zonal mean winds at 60NB to come close to reversal. I strongly believe it is this that could support blocking at high latitudes. 

That being said, I should probably add that the vortex is not yet being "ripped apart" as would often be the case with mid-winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. It is displaced, but the core does not warm all that significantly and heights continue to drop. This - as far as I know - is in agreement with what we call Canadian Warmings (an early winter stratospheric event) but I am no expert in these definitions. 

Edited October 18, 2016 by Ruben Amsterdam

[Gael_Force]

What caught my attention is the two-pronged attack of WAA into Canada and Alaska as shown at the end of the GFS run. I presume this is ex tropical cyclones or hybrid systems but whatever they are that amount of heat moving in to the east and west coast of N America should help keep heights up and push the vortex over to the Siberian side.

[Skullzrulerz]

It's been a very long time since I stepped into this world of model output for nearly 2 years.

First off I seen lately that most of the models support northern blocking until lately which seems to be very slowly just fading away into the sunset with every run which is shame for the cold fans here.

The same can be said with the cooler temperatures until now as it seems it was going to last to maybe late October possibly November as again per the first it seen to be joint in joining the northern blocking as riding off to the sunset.

That's  what I seem to get by according to most of these posts although can differ.

Although fate may have it that I could be wrong or maybe it comes back tomorrow...We shall see.

PS: Just please tell not just me but the other guys what's going on in a neutral respective please