Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Summer Sun]

The models continue to flip and flop for the ealy stages of November

06z

12z

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The models continue to flip and flop for the ealy stages of November

06z

12z

Yes, although I think the run will end up similar to the last one but just a long winded way of getting there, the end of this run will be blocked me thinks.

[northwestsnow]

Lovely seasonal GFS12Z with a very anticylonic outlook as move into November- cool/cold Bonfire night on the cards if that verifies..:)

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Lovely seasonal GFS12Z with a very anticylonic outlook as move into November- cool/cold Bonfire night on the cards if that verifies..:)

Thats the theme I am seeing, all depends just how amplified the block gets for the brief Northerly will determine just how cool/cold it will get at night in particular.

Certainly not much in the way of rainfall with high pressure fairly close by but we should see a change regarding the 'feel' of things as we head into next week.

[Jeremy Shockey]

some cooler temps as we head into Nov looking very likely

[knocker]

The GFS is quite amusing this evening. It disrupts the Atlantic trough as per and we have the cut off upper low to the south west. Then the ridging of the HP NE which partially blocks the energy shooting east from the Canadian vortex but not be outwitted it changes tack and sends it south around the other way. Oh what a twisted web we weave.

Edited October 27, 2016 by knocker

[Barry12]

Brilliant GFS run in FI, as a ridge moves into Greenland and we start to pick up a cold flow from the North East

 

Just hope it can move into the reliable timeframe, but it does having support from the Met Office with a cold flow from the north as we move into November, very promising signs!

Edited October 27, 2016 by Barry95

[weirpig]

Well as far as model watching goes that run from the gfs  is the best this year in my opinion  that block is going nowhere a strong north. Northeasterly sets in and we have a cold start to November . If only it were that easy 

[Day 10]

On 26/10/2016 at 10:05, Minus 10 said:

The big 3 at 120, where's all the usual wind and rain???

Looks like a very pleasant weekend coming up, is this the last warm hurrah before we plunge into an early winter. Lets hope the 1000-1 GFS outsider comes steaming down the rail as we approach mid November!!!

To quote my old post, the 1000-1 outsider is moving through the field!! Another lovely end to the run and not staying out in the T300's either. Not brutally cold but we are moving very much in the right direction...

[Ali1977]

Great GFS, and UKMO - just need the ECM to look similar at day 10 now. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well as far as model watching goes that run from the gfs  is the best this year in my opinion  that block is going nowhere a strong north. Northeasterly sets in and we have a cold start to November . If only it were that easy 

Yes the WAA is just continuing no matter what, every trough that gets sent SE, another bout of near vertical advection just builds GL high behind making sure troughs keep on getting sent into continental Europe, beautiful beautiful sight, just wish it were later and we could get some -10 to -15c isotherms sent south behind them.

Edited October 27, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Well as far as model watching goes that run from the gfs  is the best this year in my opinion  that block is going nowhere a strong north. Northeasterly sets in and we have a cold start to November . If only it were that easy 

Once again a very weak and disorganised tropospheric vortex showing as we head towards mid November.

What is interesting too is that small warmings in the strat seemingly continue throughout the model run after brief lulls. Unlike last year where they were shown to skirt around the strong PV core, these warmings seem to be headed more direct and are having the effect of not allowing the vortex to settle or regroup easily.

[Frosty.]

Very interesting Gfs 12z with reloads of colder Nwly winds before arctic air digs south, there is more snow potential and frost than the 6z op..I think it's a good time to be a coldie!

Edited October 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

And the strat looks ripe for another bout of wave breaking at the back end of this run as well.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat looks ripe for another bout of wave breaking at the back end of this run as well.

 

Yep, I noticed this. Keep 'em coming I say. Get another major episode and we could see a very interesting back end of November into December.

[phil nw.]

Just a general comment from me.It's hard not to raise an eyebrow at these 12z charts especially the week 2 GFS.

OK we know the later frames will likely be different nearer the time but i can't recall such a cold pattern even being modeled so early in November and that includes 2010!

If the Atlantic setup continues to go this way with heights continually sniffing out a Greenland block then surely it's only a matter of time before that cold air further east and north heads this way.

Such a different looking Arctic profile this year-interesting times to follow the charts that's for sure.

[knocker]

Note the pincer movement that results in the troughs phasing together

Edited October 27, 2016 by knocker

[weirpig]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes the WAA is just continuing no matter what, every trough that gets sent SE, another bout of near vertical advection just builds GL high behind making sure troughs keep on getting sent into continental Europe, beautiful beautiful sight, just wish it were later and we could get some -10 to -15c isotherms sent south behind them.

Yep if it were December and these these charts came to fruition then there would be serious cold uppers heading south  however that pattern if it were to happen would take days if not a few weeks to budge  all the while pumping colder air our way . Great charts 

[cheshire snow]

Sorry Mods this post is of Topic,however i must say that it has been

A pleasure reading the posts on this thread in tbe last few days.

Very informative posting with charts to back up statements,it

Makes learning alot easier,thanks to all,this why this is the best

Forum.

C.S

[Day 10]

2010 to today, I'd say we are in a decent position

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z shows perturbation support for cold snaps / spells next month..It's much more promising this autumn compared to last, let's hope it continues when winter arrives in a little over 4 weeks.

[Matthew.]

After a very benign end to October the new month shifts towards definitive cold moving south as the ECM 12z firms up on the trough moving south in Europe. Next Thursday still looking like light winds/frost/fog potentially:

[Frosty.]

Nice to see colder air feeding south next week on the Ecm 12z, trending colder then and a bit of fine tuning with the high to the west and trough to the east could make things even more interesting, plenty of time for that to be resolved!

Edited October 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice to see colder air feeding south next week on the Ecm 12z 

Yep Karl much more quicker evolution then the gfs . Cold bonfire night seems to be a recurring theme at the moment 

[January Snowstorm]

I see a gradual weakening of heights / blocking on this evenings charts.

High pressure over or in situ shouldn't be taken as the same as northern blocking. It may not be the most popular post this evening but what I see is yellows over Greenland being eroded and being replaced with blues and purples. I have an inkling that the vortex is going to ramp up in about ten days time. In the meantime worth remembering that it isn't cold here or in near future nor will it be cold within a 1000 mile radius of Britain and Ireland.