Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[terrier]

Well a very nice looking end to the gfs 6z run looks like that blocking isn't going anywhere fast. But the gfs6z can't be right can it as it doesn't have as much ballon data on this output lol

[weirpig]

Well  if its cool chilly frosty weather your after  with a nip in the Breeze  then this run is right up your street.  More or less from 114 hours  right up to the end of the run  the Uk is under a chilly if not at times cold airmass.  lovely Autumn weather  what more could we want  it is only November after all 

[karlos1983]

Look how unseasonably mild the uppers are for Arctic Canada. And the PV MIA all the way through the run, incredible stuff. 

[SMU]

Whats been VERY consistent out of the models all the back for the last 2 / 3 days is the development of a significant cold pool & snow over Northern Europe, if you look at the 120-192 charts the cold wedge just expands & stays there in situ all the way to 384. 

Should something like this happen it will certainly be rare if not unheard of- this time of year the jet should be sweeping westerlies all the way through western norway, so far the models arent getting the atlantic past Ireland !

Significant cold pooling to the East remaining untouched & gently perculating south & west is very easy on the eye!

S

( The net gain of cold in northern europe is Alaskas loss ! )

Edited October 28, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Barry12]

9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

lovely model charts with blocking this year I grant you and the set up is definitely different to other years - and it's very early in the season yet for "true" cold - but one thing that does seem to be repeating itself is the way the "colder/cooler" charts keep getting pushed back around the change to low res - from Halloween - mid-way between halloween and bonfire night - bonfire night - and now after onto the 7th Nov and beyond - looks like - in past years - we may be chasing ghosts again - I hope that's not the case though!

It's only the 28th October so you can't expect deep cold as you say, but the colder/cooler charts aren't being pushed back to low res? by day 4 colder air starts to move into Scotland, and the whole of the UK is in colder air by day 5.

[jules216]

Just found some interesting charts from Hungarian website, which is ECMWF extended range temperature anomalies for Europe, week 45 and 46

[Jodansgang]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Any newish members looking in & wanting to see a chart to save to images for WAA up the western half of greenland.

Pick this one. & save it for reference as it doent get any better than that.

S

Hi. In language a child could understand....why?

Jodansgang

[weirpig]

Well  a quick glance at the ensembles  about 80% show us in a colder airstream by around the 2nd of November.  quite good agreement.   After that  

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Jodansgang said:

Hi. In language a child could understand....why?

Jodansgang

WAA into the Greenland area will only aid to reinforce Northern Blocking and thus increase our *chances* of cold for longer

Edited October 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[Coopsy]

20 minutes ago, Jodansgang said:

Hi. In language a child could understand....why?

Jodansgang

Or you could just ask why it's such a good chart - unless of course you are a child then I can understand your post.

[weirpig]

Cant stand people who cherry pick charts.  Perb 5  Dead cert.

[Jodansgang]

1 minute ago, Daryl Dixon said:

Or you could just ask why it's such a good chart - unless of course you are a child then I can understand your post.

Hi. You can understand my post on the basis that I am a child, I'm sure that says a lot more about you than me.

Why is it such a good chart?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Jodansgang said:

Hi. You can understand my post on the basis that I am a child, I'm sure that says a lot more about you than me.

Why is it such a good chart?

Hello, J...We are all children in here - especially if even a single snowflake might be on offer!

[Geordiesnow]

Bar the UKMO run, not an awful lot of change on this morning's outputs, the PV over the Arctic is still hit for 6 and there is certainly no real hints on any Atlantic onslaught appearing.

Still perhaps some hints the PV may finally get its act together over the Arctic but its still too far out to be sure of this. Overall, the outlook will turn cooler and perhaps night time frosts will be more of a story although that depends just how close high pressure to the NW gets to the UK.

What will be interesting is any cold pool in Scandinavia that is forming along with low pressure which should bring snowfall here and see whether any early season lying snow and cold pools will affect the weather patterns in the future.

[titchjuicy]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Hello, J...We are all children in here - especially if even a single snowflake might be on offer!

FWIW my post wasn't an attempted dig at anyone. It was just a hopeless attempt at being funny, and I thought Jodansgang took it in that spirit.

 

My bad for going off topic. Back to the models.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, raul_sbd said:

Hi chaps,

Any recommendation on wich IOS app I could follow the models like ECM GFS etc.. I had it on Android but now not sure where I can find a nice one on IOS Iphone.

 

THanks everyone!

I just use my browser on meteociel. works well enough for me.

[Wilxy]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Cant stand people who cherry pick charts.  Perb 5  Dead cert.

And going by the ensembles its a similar story across all of them!

[Scandinavian High.]

The blocked pattern continues no westerly to be seen. Cooler as we go in to November with frosts 

[karlos1983]

Some people have an odd sense of humor.. anyway back on track we go...

well the GFS Control was fairly uninspiring, but it shows up as a damn Liar on the ENS  which is clear to see, and good news

Then again, you could argue the same of the Op, More runs please 

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

And going by the ensembles its a similar story across all of them!

That's the Ensembles for West Germany though...

[Chris.R]

45 minutes ago, Jodansgang said:

Hi. In language a child could understand....why?

Jodansgang

 

Hi :-)  I think it's a fair question. Having learned everything I know from this forum over the past few years I would say this:

WAA up the west side of Greenland would promote high pressure over Greenland and therefore CAA would  exist to the East , potentially pulling cold air down over Western Europe. You need the WAA to the west to support the Greenland hi.  The fact that we could be seeing potentially such good WAA in this location this year is a good sign going forward. 

Edited October 28, 2016 by Chris.R

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Just found some interesting charts from Hungarian website, which is ECMWF extended range temperature anomalies for Europe, week 45 and 46

Link to the site please nice charts

[Frosty.]

Well it looks like temperatures are heading below average from next mid week onwards with high pressure becoming situated generally to the west of the uk bringing a lot of settled and chilly weather with overnight frosts but with occasional low pressure swinging southeastwards from iceland with bands of rain interspersed with brighter and showery conditions at times, especially for the n / e and becoming cold enough for snow on northern high ground..sounds a lot better than the same time last year with a rampant polar vortex with mild, wet and windy weather for the uk. With the set up we are looking at there is potential for a much colder more wintry outbreak to arrive during November.

[SMU]

1 hour ago, Jodansgang said:

Hi. In language a child could understand....why?

Jodansgang

Hi

We look at the western tip of Greenland for whats referred to as Vertical advection - of course its not actually vertical- its just appears that way on The chart, however when it appears ( & actually comes to fruition ) the domino effect is almost 100% guarentee of cold alligning towards the UK from the NE-

Thats because that vertical advection basically creates a loop of warm air into the pole - releasing a cold pool out south on the other side - see below -

 

the 2 greatest cold spells of recent times started with the very same process

see below

S

[winterof79]

38 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That's the Ensembles for West Germany though...

Correct but it shows the cold air marching WEST