Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean shows next week starting mild and anticyclonic but that's ended on tuesday by a trough pushing east from iceland towards scandinavia with colder Nwly winds sweeping down across the uk behind a band of rain which is quickly followed by clearer / showery conditions which continues into midweek and with a risk that some of the showers would become wintry on the higher scottish hills and mountains, maybe the higher hills of northern england. The night's becoming colder too with slight frosts where skies clear but too much breeze for mist and fog to be an issue. Thereafter we see increasing trough influence with showers and longer spells of rain and temperatures at least a little below average. There is a good chance of colder shots from the north occurring too within the set up shown with a wintry mix of ppn, again especially on northern hills and more widespread frosts.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

Another corker in progress as we speak.

 

The -8c isotherm getting nearer and nearer with each run and better Greenland height profile on this run.

 

Unlikely but imagine if that low to SW of Greenland could slide into France or eject a shortwave we would be in business,

Edited October 28, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Ravelin]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another corker in progress as we speak.

 

The -8c isotherm getting nearer and nearer with each run and better Greenland height profile on this run.

Not bad at day 7....

I could have picked just about any chart as an illustration , no cherry picking going on. 

[karlos1983]

That really is a sight to behold 

 

Greenland in full view, when really there should be a big nasty dark purple blob of a PV smack bang over it at this time of year. WOW

Edited October 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[Barry12]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another corker in progress as we speak.

 

The -8c isotherm getting nearer and nearer with each run and better Greenland height profile on this run.

Yeah, far better run in terms of Greenland heights, who said the blocking is starting to disappear!?

Edited October 28, 2016 by Barry95

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Not bad at day 7....

I could have picked just about any chart as an illustration , no cherry picking going on. 

Here she comes !!!!!!!!

[Ravelin]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

I do believe that low to the south of Greenland is going to slide SE. 

Edit: Which it does. . . 

Edited October 28, 2016 by Ravelin

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I do believe that low to the south of Greenland is going to slide SE. 

I was hoping for a link up with the continental low though, not going to happen now.

Still another cracking run though!

Edited October 28, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

Cold pool to the east inbound here in last few frames 

[summer blizzard]

Glory awaits us.

 

[SMU]

ha - GFS is loading the dice again

Double 6 sees vertical advection over greenland at 312

s

[lorenzo]

That MJO phase can sit there as long as it damn well likes and keep on loading those dice...

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was hoping for a link up with the continental low though, not going to happen now.

Still another cracking run though!

Same here, close but no coconut. Maybe on the next run though? 

Even if none of this comes to pass its cracking watching this sort of modelling getting churned out 4 times a day. 

[Yarmy]

Pub run is preposterous. +8C 850s over eastern Greenland and -8C 850s kissing Tyneside.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

That MJO phase can sit there as long as it damn well likes and keep on loading those dice...

Yes 6,7 and 8 all have low heights to E or S of us.

[karlos1983]

ECM was on the warm side of the ensembles by the looks of it, toward the end of the run. Which backs up what Ian was saying earlier for uncertainty post 1st week of November. 

[SMU]

Not bad - 3 of the 18z ensembles get the -8c line into England around day 10 !

Thats very early !!

[Ice Day]

Well the positive late autumn models have continued.  Little or no chance of the Atlantic ramping up in the next 10 to 14 days and varied decent northern blocking options shown across the models.  So many good charts, just today.  How about this beauty at 204 on the pub run (apologies if it's been posted already!):

Just look at the state of the PV..... a complete mess!  And a cold lobe dropped into Scandi.

Whilst there is absolutely no guarantee that this will manifest itself into snow and cold into the UK at some point soon, this is probably the best late autumn model viewing in my time on Netweather.  The last three winters have been poor as the weather tended to get stuck in a rut from November on.  If we could get stuck in the rut on offer at the moment, I reckon we could be in for a fantastic winter ahead.

Early days, but  'steady as she goes Captain'!

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by Ice Day

[SLEETY]

More interest in the models over the last few weeks than their has been over the last few winters lol

[knocker]

Today

The next couple of days can be easily summed up. The UK remains under the influence of  dirty high. Ergo dry but cloudy with diurnal temp variation kept to a minimum, although this morning was quite nippy in NE Scotland, but could be quite pleasant if, and where the sun does make an appearance. A chance of some showery rain in NW Scotland tomorrow.

Sticking to the first 10 days of this morning's GFS run, The general evolution is much the same as previously but some quite important changes in detail as we get towards the end of the aforementioned period.

The first trough from the west duly ducks SE Tuesday night which heralds the introduction of a period colder air over the UK.

This is where it gets slightly more complicated and where the not so subtle changes have taken place. Although the HP does briefly extend NE behind the diving upper low it soon collapses as the conduit to the colder air, the trough west to Greenland, becomes more firmly established  This results in the next trough arriving from the west being phased into the LP to the east before it tracks south east  Thus we end up with this scenario and surface low pressure stretching from the NW to the east and showery inclement weather for the north of the country.

Look away now if you have a weak constitution. Some nifty amplification now takes place with HP ridging into Greenland and intensification of the low pressure to the east leading to some quite cold and unpleasant weather descending on the UK from Sunday the 6th. The defibrillators are on standby  until the ecm rolls out.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2016 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues the theme of a cool/cold N/NE flow from next weekend.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The GFS this morning continues the theme of a cool/cold N/NE flow from next weekend.

It is a great run for coldies but comes with a health warning given the amount of divergence between Op and control.

Time will tell.

[knocker]

You don't want to look further ahead Polar  as it drives the next upper low SE on the jet to end up with a nasty depression SW of Cornwall

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

You don't want to look further ahead Polar  as it drives the next upper low SE on the jet to end up with a nasty depression SW of Cornwall

Not bad if you like snow though Knock's 

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not bad if you like snow though Knock's 

 

Obviously the GFS has managed to get hold of some wacky baccy from the mafia Mucka but meanwhile back in the real world