Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run gives the uk an early taste of winter with widespread frosts and some snow around, we get close to something epic in low res and I'm expecting plenty more cold eye candy on the way. As for next week, a chilly NNWly sweeps south but hopefully that is just the beginning!

Cold bonfire night for scotland

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[A.J]

unfortunately a few posts hidden.....model discussion only please........use the pm system for personal inter-member chat, and the relevant threads for non-model related twitter posts....cheers

[Zakos]

Absolute stunner from the GFS at +384, we may just miss the coldest air but that chart screams long term cold potential to me

Coldest run for Europe of the season. A  relatively small shift west and there would be a snowfest for the UK

Yes this time range is miles out... but the upgrades are there in the short term.

12z18z00z06z

on the 9th at +264, there is a trend from the GFS to send more energy up the western side of Greenland. The jet stream sinks further south below Europe, and is weaker and more fragmented on each run

One of the best height anomaly charts I've ever seen for the UK

 

 

Edited October 29, 2016 by Zakos

[Frosty.]

There are plenty of cold options on the table from the GEFS 6z mean / perturbations ranging from polar / arctic maritime and even a few long draw easterlies with scandi highs..not much swly mush thankfully!

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Nothing mild as such indicated in the extended range with temps on the cold side or at least below average for most of the time which ties in with the latest Ecm / Gefs mean charts, and I just assumed  MOGREPS must be looking favourable but have now been told its essentially based on GloSea.

Although there is lower confidence from mid Nov, the second half of the month sounds broadly similar to the first with winds generally between NWly / Nly..I think most of the uk will have a fairly good chance of snow at some point during November, especially on hills and in the north along with plenty of frosts and even fog, some of it of the freezing variety..from a coldies point of view, this is looking sooo much better than what we had to endure late last autumn and with luck will bode well for winter because frankly, we coldies deserve it!

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[fergieweather]

58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

MOGREPS must be looking favourable because the second half of November sounds broadly similar to the first half with winds generally between NWly / NEly and only occasionally backing westerly

... just FYI, that's essentially based on GloSea rather than MOGREPS. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the favoured outcome by UKMO remains -ve AO/NAO (due to combination of stratospheric state; sea ice & Eurasian snow cover) through the next 30d period. The 3-monthly probabilistic outlook (N-D-J) will be made available next week. 

[Frosty.]

In the short term, the Gfs 6z shows the south is likely to import drier air tomorrow and monday from the near continent bringing increasing amounts of sunshine with temps between 16/18c and tuesday still looks pleasantly mild across the far south but as you can see, much colder air then floods south. This may be the last time we see temps in the mid to upper teens celsius for some considerable time..hopefully until next April!

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

... just FYI, that's essentially based on GloSea rather than MOGREPS

Apologies

[Barry12]

A quick summary of next week from the GFS 06Z before the 12z runs...

 

Monday

A very mild day with temperatures widely into the mid teens, possibly late teens in some areas in the south. Dry apart from far Northern Scotland that could have some heavy rain.

 

Tuesday

Still a mild day for the south with 14-15C in the south, but colder air starts to move into the North making it feel rather chilly, especially in Scotland with temperatures stuck in the mid single figures. Bit of t'old rain clipping the far north of Scotland.

 

Wednesday

Feeling colder for the whole of the UK with temperatures ranging from 5-10C widely, dry unless you happen to live on a Scottish Island!

 

Thursday

Remaining cold with temperatures struggling to get into double figures, dry for most apart from NI and western Scotland where heavy rain is possible.

 

Friday

Slightly less cold but still feeling chilly, temperatures just about getting into double figures, but remaining very cold in Scotland with temperatures remaining in mid single figures. A band of heavy rain moves in Friday night/Saturday morning.

 

The Weekend

Staying cold with temperatures slightly below average, with some sharp frosts for the North of the UK.

 

So in summary - a mild start to the week before colder air moves in by mid week, making it feel much colder especially to the North of the UK, with some frosty mornings! The colder air remains for the weekend. Nothing extreme but feeling seasonal, hopefully by week 2 we can import some properly cold air and get some snow finally.

[bryan629]

Did someone say about a record -AO/NAO recently...!!

Where we might be heading into the last 2 weeks of November.. 

A little bit of scatter towards mid month but ultimately, still in negative territory.. 

Substantial reward given for information leading to the whereabouts of the PV 

 

[Kieran]

The afternoon run of the GFS is rolling out now. Seems like another upgrade to me with the cold coming in much faster than on the 6z.

+174 below:

 

Chilly/cold bonfire night for all if true....

Edited October 29, 2016 by Kieran

[Ali1977]

Very similar on the 6th to the 06z

However a cleaner block sonny day 8 the air is a fair bit colder. Good upgrade in my eyes.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

The models always want to bring in the atlantic in the 11_15 day period ,because that is THE default setup in the uk,so I wouldnt take much notice of that pattern emerging any time soon.

[Met4Cast]

Much better alignment for WAA up Western Greenland on the 12z. Belter of a run coming up 

[Frosty.]

If you look closely on the Gfs 12z you can see a bit of sleet on the scottish mountains towards next midweek and a much colder start to the day replacing the current double digits celsius minima..a taste of things to come? Well yes..it gets better and better..

[Zakos]

Huge upgrade on the 12z.

06z12z

The Canadian arctic is on fire on this run, and the airmass over Europe continues to increase in potency each run and being shifted further west, now encroaching upon the UK on the 12Z

[Ali1977]

Looks like a WAA reload...ramping time!! For now!! 

[shaky]

Holy crap what a 12z run so far!big upgrade and the block is stronger and air is colder incoming from the north east!

[Frosty.]

Here comes the Arctic

The Gfs 12z is building on its earlier promise. Here comes the snow

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

14 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Chilly/cold bonfire night for all if true....

Classic case of what is shown in the far reaches of FI, disappearing and being dismissed, only to re-emerge a week later.

[Dancerwithwings]

528 DAM LINE engulfs much of the UK by Next weekend

[Frosty.]

Widespread frosts, sharp in places as cold air becomes entrenched, temperatures by day barely getting above freezing in some northern areas and its not even winter for another month!

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[bryan629]

Unbelievable run  -8 uppers creeping west... then have a look at the cold pooling over Russia.. i dont think i have ever seen grey shading before

 

[Ali1977]

Cold blast then a reload looking possible, yes we need to be wary but this looks great. ECM will be interesting.

If only this was in the reliable, great chart.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Ali1977

[SMU]

Looks like a 1979 chart

deep snow for the North...

s