Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[bluearmy]

58 minutes ago, knocker said:

That of course is a possibility but if the ridge edges east then this would probably be negated and you would have an analysis something like the 850mb streamline chart at T300.

That would be the form horse over the years knocks with any ridge being further east than initially modelled

currently seeems more inclination to retrogression though 

[Frank Trough]

40 minutes ago, swilliam said:

The last time I can remember significant cold at the beginning of November was 1980 when there was snow in the channel islands and -8 uppers in SE England

 

 

 

I can't remember if it was 1993 or 1994 but one of those Novembers (I think) had a sort of blocking holding pattern with little temporary easterlies before we got a full blown affair later in the month. I think 1994 now if memory serves.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Aye, far to early to be worrying about golden synoptics. Back end of Nov to Feb is when it matters. We're 4 weeks too early at the minute. It's all about the bigger picture until then for me. 

Yes getting back to the models, as bluearmy pointed out earlier, there hasn't been one operational and hardly any ensembles that one could call 'disappointing' from the overnight runs, granted some are better than others, that said though, we must watch out for a segment of the PV re-appearing over Greenland, it can happen a lot quicker than you think, FWIW I thing we will endure a wet stormy period in late Nov but as long as there are still strong waves somewhere having a go at the PV and breaking into the strat, I wont be panicking.

[cheeky_monkey]

7 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

 

I can't remember if it was 1993 or 1994 but one of those Novembers (I think) had a sort of blocking holding pattern with little temporary easterlies before we got a full blown affair later in the month. I think 1994 now if memory serves.  

Definitely not Nov 1994 which is the warmest on Record...1993 was on the whole cold and wintry

[Frosty.]

P2 (GEFS 6z) is a perfect example of a reloading cold pattern from the northwest / north and there are quite a few other Gefs 6z perturbations to keep coldies in the hunt for our first wintry snap / spell during the first half of november with frosts, ice and wintry showers, even some snow, especially on northern hills.

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Snow and storms]

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

*cough* Boss is out of the office *cough* and I was bored *cough*

So here's Nov '62 in animated form....

 

looking at the comparisons to 62/63, it does look fairly similar as we head into november. I would say the vortex is far more disorganized today than it was back then. There was a lot of high pressure and slack flow before getting a brief taste of what was to come shown in ravelins graphic above in nov. It is important to remember that even one our greatest modern winters didn't really get going until dec 23rd so even though the great building blocks are in place we could still be waiting a long time as it still requires a lot of luck for the blocking highs to fall in the right place with the right angles. 

I think the key points to draw from the comparisons when looking at the bigger picture is the vortex was displaced over the iberian & north west canadian areas with a fair amount of warmth being pulled up to the pole on our side which created great oppurtunity for the blocking scenarios to set up on our side of the globe and making it very difficult for the jet stream to establish it's self. The upcoming forecast for the warmth or late indian summer to me suggests a great 'chance' for the same setup to establish which 'should' massivly increase chances of a great winter. 

i would go as far to say that the building blocks in place at the moment are better than 62/63 but that doesn't guarentee us anything.

great animation by the way ravelin, Can you just finish the rest of the 62/63 winter for us and do a 850 version

[phil nw.]

Some recent posts have been removed as they added nothing to the discussion on current model outputs.

Any general chat should go into the relevant threads please and so for that matter does harking back to other Winters.

Thanks.

[Ravelin]

15 minutes ago, Snow and storms said:

i would go as far to say that the building blocks in place at the moment are better than 62/63 but that doesn't guarentee us anything.

great animation by the way ravelin, Can you just finish the rest of the 62/63 winter for us and do a 850 version

I'd agree, but we should really be comparing Oct 62 against Oct 16. If I get the time I'll try to animate both of those but it'll probably be at the weekend, when I'm not at work and we're almost certain how this Oct will end.

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Any general chat should go into the relevant threads please and so for that matter does harking back to other Winters.

Thanks.

And of course I'll post anything I do in a more relevant thread.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking at the 6z ensembles for my area it appears there is a strong support for a drop in upper 850s around the turn of the month after a mild end to October.

The mean is running roughly around 0c for the first 6/7 days of November which would suggest average to slightly below average depending on the exact synoptic's. After this there is a fair bit of spread so not even worth looking into.

Another thing to note is the lack of precipitation which is quite something for what is usually a mobile/wet time of year.

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by vizzy2004

[winterof79]

5 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Ehm, am I missing something but that chart is dated 30th September 2016. The chart for this day in 1977 is quite different...

And 1 month later, so end of Nov,,,

And Boxing Day 1977...

Difficult to get a full feel from snapshots but doesn't look too much like what we currently have to me.

I seem to have had an issue with charts there.....hey ho thanks for the heads up and back to surfing

[bryan629]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Some  nice charts on the ensembles  here is my favourite just to  wet the appetite   out in Fl  but nice to look at.

Just been watching a video that kind of explains that chart as the `` Bath tub splosh theory`` whereby cold air is transported from one side of the NH to the other via baroclinicity, without actually crossing straight over the pole   An American old timers theory apparently. 

Joe bastardi explains it here http://www.weatherbell.com/ scroll halfway down the page and its the video on the left ... he said its not showing up on any model yet, but the anomaly chart he uses right near the end and looking through quite a number of pertubs on gfs go for something like it past the 250hr mark.

Maybe just for fun ... maybe have a bit of credence .. lets see ! 

[phil nw.]

Regarding the here and now quite a decent warm up for the next few days as we import some sub tropical air day 4 for example.Temperatures into the mid-high teens for some so quite a notable Indian Summer period along with the remarkable dryness for many areas for some time now this Autumn.

The high across the south keeping things quite dry into next week before we finally see the signs of the jet moving south bringing a colder feel to the UK.

We can see by day 10 the change over as an Atlantic high and a Scandi.trough are modeled.Below is GFS/ECM mean charts alongside the London 2m temperature graph

so it looks like a colder first week of November especially further north where snow over high ground looks likely to come into the forecasts.

 

 

[The Beast From The East]

6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I'd agree, but we should really be comparing Oct 62 against Oct 16. If I get the time I'll try to animate both of those but it'll probably be at the weekend, when I'm not at work and we're almost certain how this Oct will end.

And of course I'll post anything I do in a more relevant thread.

I too would love to see this animation to compare October in both years you mentioned. Surely this could still go in this thread once you've done it as it's still model discussion and trying to compare how the months/winters turned out using the different models. I tend to only read the model thread as I find it very useful and love reading all the post that people take the time to write and I'm slowly starting to learn how to read the models. 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Looking at the 6z ensembles for my area it appears there is a strong support for a drop in upper 850s around the turn of the month after a mild end to October.

The mean is running roughly around 0c for the first 6/7 days of November which would suggest average to slightly below average depending on the exact synoptic's. After this there is a fair bit of spread so not even worth looking into.

Another thing to note is the lack of precipitation which is quite something for what is usually a mobile/wet time of year.

 

Yes, this would tie in with the professionals summary. Drier than expected, with temps at or below normal with winds generally from a Northerly type direction.  

This is all very unusual and as others have mentioned, we haven't really had this type of Autumnal set up in the past - totally different to the last few years at least.  Something unusual is on the way whatever happens, even if it is a sudden swing back to the usual wet and windy type months. I've lived in my new house for 3 years and haven't seen a snowflake since, I'm hoping at least that stat will come to an end.

[Gael_Force]

11 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I'd agree, but we should really be comparing Oct 62 against Oct 16. If I get the time I'll try to animate both of those but it'll probably be at the weekend, when I'm not at work and we're almost certain how this Oct will end.

And of course I'll post anything I do in a more relevant thread.

Thanks Ravelin.

There's another way to see this if anybody is in a hurry ... just load the Meteociel continuous format from the archives. 500 height and 850 temp options.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=10&hour=0&year=1962&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

You can change any year back to 1871 and just keep pressing apres to get follow on.

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Just been watching a video that kind of explains that chart as the `` Bath tub splosh theory`` whereby cold air is transported from one side of the NH to the other via baroclinicity, without actually crossing straight over the pole   An American old timers theory apparently. 

Joe bastardi explains it here http://www.weatherbell.com/ scroll halfway down the page and its the video on the left ... he said its not showing up on any model yet, but the anomaly chart he uses right near the end and looking through quite a number of pertubs on gfs go for something like it past the 250hr mark.

Maybe just for fun ... maybe have a bit of credence .. lets see ! 

What a spot  Bryan!  Very informative.

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, Siberian Xpress said:

I too would love to see this animation to compare October in both years you mentioned.Surely this could still go in this thread once you've done it as it's still model discussion and trying to compare how the months/winters turned out using the different models. I tend to only read the model thread as I find it very useful and love reading all the post that people take the time to write and I'm slowly starting to learn how to read the models. 

We do need to keep discussion outside of current charts in separate threads or else this thread soon gets taken off track.There are plenty of other threads to choose from in this section

 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-autumn-and-general-weather-discussion/

Ok then back on topic please guys.

Ta. 

[Ravelin]

13 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Thanks Ravelin.

There's another way to see this if anybody is in a hurry ... just load the Meteociel continuous format from the archives. 500 height and 850 temp options.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=10&hour=0&year=1962&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

You can change any year back to 1871 and just keep pressing apres to get follow on.

Which is what I used to create the animation. If anyone wants to have a go just right click and 'save picture' for each chart, then upload them all to an online 'animated GIF' creator. It's a bit tedious but not at all difficult. Of course someone will now come along and explain a much easier way of doing it.

[winterof79]

Okay after my computer/mental failure earlier....we appear to have a repeating trend  showing for years with extremely blocked Northern Hemispheric Patterns/lack of Vortex build in our vicinity in early November. Here is where GFS expects us to be come the 5th November 2016

Here are a few Very Snowy winters according to the link I have included

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

Notice

1875,1878 and 1885

The winter of1916/17 was also deemed Very snowy too

62/63 and more recent snowy episodes have been covered I think but very interesting and RARE synoptics to the North.

 

Hopefully I have this correct this time.

Edited October 26, 2016 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

It's noticeable that the models today are pushing back any possible cold shot so it's very FI range now and the next week or so at least looks very quiet away from the far nw / n and temps further south are going to be above average with 17/18/19c on some days..very pleasant indeed and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in the s / se hits 20c or thereabouts which would be exceptional on the cusp of November.

[winterof79]

 

A noticeable cooling trend as we move further in to the new month.

[Skullzrulerz]

Well Afternoon Guys, Back yet again lol.

it seems like after a milder spell for a few days it seems to that to road to cold begins at the turn of November.

Not sure if this tweet has been posted.

As you can see after a more norm CFS now the CFS seems to back Northern Blocking,which is good news for cold fans.

PS:Someone Replied to my other post the other thank you for the reply and i agree with that you said.

Besides Winter is nearly here

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's noticeable that the models today are pushing back any possible cold shot so it's very FI range now and the next week or so at least looks very quiet away from the far nw / n and temps further south are going to be above average with 17/18/19c on some days..very pleasant indeed and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in the s / se hits 20c or thereabouts which would be exceptional on the cusp of November.

I'm not sure it that exceptional, if you look back to archived charts from the last few years there have been several warm Halloweens.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I'm not sure it's that exceptional, if you look back to archived charts from the last few years there have been several warm Halloweens.

On reflection, exceptional was over egging the pudding but anyway, very pleasant for the time of year and unseasonably mild is probably a fair summary which applies to the southern half of the uk for the next week or so apart from overnight / morning fog.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

Another variation from the GFS at the day 8 range, this and other models haven't got a handle on it yet. Top one being the latest doesn't look quite as good over the arctic but much better over Greenland with regards blocking.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Ali1977