Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

[cheese]

Are we all back to kissing Ian Pennell's bottom again after a few unsuccessful long-range forecasts this year?

Edited December 12, 2016 by cheese

[Gustywind]

To be honest, anyone could forecast mild, wet and windy as a U.K. winter forecast these days and they'd be right 80% of the time, which would be a pretty decent success rate. The bigger challenge is trying to spot and forecast the 1 in 5 or so years where it varies slightly from the norm.

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, Gustywind said:

To be honest, anyone could forecast mild, wet and windy as a U.K. winter forecast these days and they'd be right 80% of the time, which would be a pretty decent success rate. The bigger challenge is trying to spot and forecast the 1 in 5 or so years where it varies slightly from the norm.

Exactly the point I was just making in the model moan thread.

[iapennell]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

There are hints in some of the longer range forecasts of high-pressure with cold and frosty weather (see above link to Wetterzentral). But indeed, as I predicted from the outset December is not going to average out colder than usual and wet, windy (and mild) conditions will seldom be far from the north-west of Britain. After suggesting cold dry weather would gain the upper hand the long-range forecast from the BBC is now suggesting that mild and wet conditions will win out in the New Year.

They say a week is a long time in politics, the same is true of the medium-term weather prospects in this country!

[iapennell]

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation became even more "Westerly" in November: At 30 mb over the Equator the average wind-speed is over 14 metres/second (near 32 mph) from the west and at 50 mb the November average was Westerly 7 m/s (16 mph). This is liable to feed into the general atmospheric circulation over the next few months, and this means mild conditions with strong west or south-west winds will gain the upper hand towards the end of the winter. The westerlies in the Equatorial stratosphere have been truly exceptional and they extend through a considerable depth of the high atmosphere there; such a large quantity of Westerly AAM accumulated high over the Equator does not, at any level, look good at all for prospects of extensive blocking with easterlies in higher latitudes come February-March 2017.

[Weather-history]

On 28/10/2016 at 14:32, Weather-history said:

Laws of average say that the coming winter should be a dry one then, therefore not much wind and rain if that were the case.  The last sub 200mm winter for England and Wales was just over 10 years ago.

 

Have to say the first half of winter is going to be drier than average for England and Wales at least. Only a week ago till we are half way through the meteorological winter.