Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

[Hocus Pocus]

Well I suppose we've made some progress as you were ruling out a cold winter month  period  up until now Ian. This forecast of yours has had more revisions than Englands  attempt at finding a winning formula  prior to any big tournament. 

[weirpig]

34 minutes ago, iapennell said:

BTW  do any of you know about Accounting? I know this is a strange topic to bring up on this Forum but I am currently studying AAT Advance Diploma in Accounting and are familiar with how assets, liabilities, capital, expenditure and income are accounted for: A business is healthy with good prospects if it has lots of assets, has goodwill and is profitable- any Accountant will tell you this. Likewise, as you can divide money up this way, there are parralels as to how heat and momentum can be divided up.

So then, we have a situation where large amounts of heat are stored in the oceans at higher latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere has been (overall) absorbing more heat than it has lost over several years and there is a large amount of this heat stored into the oceans-particularly just west and north of Britain and this country is likely to be a benefactor of this stored heat in the coming months as it is released into the atmosphere.

Overall, thanks to the laws of Conservation of Angular Momentum, the Earth-Atmosphere system only leaks very small amounts of momentum to Space (chiefly through out-gassing and marine/atmospheric tidal friction due to the Sun and the Moon- the latter being much more important). However, to follow the Accounting analogy Westerly AAM as transferred between and stored in different Ledgers": In this case these ledgers would be the solid Earth, the oceans, the Troposphere and the Stratosphere/Mesosphere and with regards to the surface Easterlies are expenditure and Westerlies income. When excess Westerly AAM is stored in the Troposphere or in the stratosphere (i.e. Westerly QBO's) and there is a strong transfer of Westerly AAM into the atmosphere at low latitudes increasing this store, the atmospheric ledgers of Westerly Momentum would soon be bursting to the brim: As such these factors increase the prospect for Westerly AAM to be returned to the surface (using Accounting analogy there are assets and money in the bank for a businessman to draw upon for personal use). This only happens if there are Westerlies interacting with the underlying surface with the frictional impact with these causing a loss of Westerly AAM.

In other words, I hope that you can appreciate why both the heat and momentum budgets are such the they don't point to a hard winter in Britain.

Yes I have a CTA  however I'm sorry Ian still don't understand  brain must be overfilled with figures

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 hours ago, iapennell said:

BTW  do any of you know about Accounting? I know this is a strange topic to bring up on this Forum but I am currently studying AAT Advance Diploma in Accounting and are familiar with how assets, liabilities, capital, expenditure and income are accounted for: A business is healthy with good prospects if it has lots of assets, has goodwill and is profitable- any Accountant will tell you this. Likewise, as you can divide money up this way, there are parralels as to how heat and momentum can be divided up.

So then, we have a situation where large amounts of heat are stored in the oceans at higher latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere has been (overall) absorbing more heat than it has lost over several years and there is a large amount of this heat stored into the oceans-particularly just west and north of Britain and this country is likely to be a benefactor of this stored heat in the coming months as it is released into the atmosphere.

Overall, thanks to the laws of Conservation of Angular Momentum, the Earth-Atmosphere system only leaks very small amounts of momentum to Space (chiefly through out-gassing and marine/atmospheric tidal friction due to the Sun and the Moon- the latter being much more important). However, to follow the Accounting analogy Westerly AAM as transferred between and stored in different Ledgers": In this case these ledgers would be the solid Earth, the oceans, the Troposphere and the Stratosphere/Mesosphere and with regards to the surface Easterlies are expenditure and Westerlies income. When excess Westerly AAM is stored in the Troposphere or in the stratosphere (i.e. Westerly QBO's) and there is a strong transfer of Westerly AAM into the atmosphere at low latitudes increasing this store, the atmospheric ledgers of Westerly Momentum would soon be bursting to the brim: As such these factors increase the prospect for Westerly AAM to be returned to the surface (using Accounting analogy there are assets and money in the bank for a businessman to draw upon for personal use). This only happens if there are Westerlies interacting with the underlying surface with the frictional impact with these causing a loss of Westerly AAM.

In other words, I hope that you can appreciate why both the heat and momentum budgets are such the they don't point to a hard winter in Britain.

As someone who is new to this area of meteorology, could you possibly briefly explain the link between oceanic heat storage and AAM to me, please Ian?  I presume that circulation cells (such as Hadley cells) show an increase in flow during such periods, which, when combined with the Coriolis Effect, would increase the rate of Westertly QBO?  To use the analogy of the figure skater, if torque remains the same, and moment of inertia (planetary diameter and minimal loss to space) is also constant, then angular momentum remains the same, correct?  If this is the case, the only influence on AAM must be torque, presumably due to friction between atmosphere and planetary surface, thereby reducing the Westerly balance of the budget due to transfer of AAM to the surface.  However, I'm uncertain as to the reasons behind your statement that the net amount of Westerly AAM (the income column in the atmospheric ledgers) increases, given that you've referred to AAM as being moved between ledgers as it is transferred between the surface, oceans, troposphere and stratosphere.  To adopt your analogy, moving cash from the income column of one ledger to that of another doesn't increase the amount of cash, it merely shifts the balance elsewhere? 

Edited November 11, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[J10]

8 hours ago, iapennell said:

BTW  do any of you know about Accounting? I know this is a strange topic to bring up on this Forum but I am currently studying AAT Advance Diploma in Accounting and are familiar with how assets, liabilities, capital, expenditure and income are accounted for: A business is healthy with good prospects if it has lots of assets, has goodwill and is profitable- any Accountant will tell you this. Likewise, as you can divide money up this way, there are parralels as to how heat and momentum can be divided up.

 

 

A mere beginner in Accounting then.

When accounting for Tangible Fixed Assets (under old UK GAAP terminology - now known as Property, Plant and Equipment under FRS102) they would be recognized over the useful economic life of the asset and depreciated as such. Of course on a straight basis of depreciation policy there would be some benefit this year, so say a 5 yr UEL a 20% benefit over a year, or 10% over 6 months.

So using this analogy back to the current climate base state, the heat could be spread over the next 5 years, and not necessarily severely impact our winter, but there would be some impacts.  Of course the climate is never straight line, if only it was it would be so much easier to forecast.

Of course, if the heat was considered a shorter term asset one could wish to prepay the cost into the next financial year and perhaps partly even to next summer, when it would be more welcomed.

In terms of budget when they are set for a year, they are then fixed, with the actual profit/loss variance reported against this. They cannot be changed every month or so, although any variance reported midyear would be used to create an end of year forecast.

Of course things never go to plan, but as all accountants know it often is accrual world.

Edited November 12, 2016 by J10

[iapennell]

On 11/11/2016 at 15:57, Hocus Pocus said:

Well I suppose we've made some progress as you were ruling out a cold winter month  period  up until now Ian. This forecast of yours has had more revisions than Englands  attempt at finding a winning formula  prior to any big tournament. 

@Hocus Pocus; I STILL rule out any month this coming winter being colder than usual- there is too much warmth stored in the NE Atlantic and developments in the half of the Northern hemisphere between 30N and the Equator (see above) do not lend themselves to any prolonged spells with northerly or easterly airstreams. I did say, at the outset, that I expected this winter to be milder and wetter than normal overall but not as mild nor as wet as last winter. There will be a couple of cold spells- with hard frosts- this winter (from the east or south-east), that I predicted back in early October when I first made the forecast but I am still not predicting a cold winter.

Yes, I modified my predictions for November/December in light of the surprise increase in Eurasian snow-cover and the blocking patterns evident in outlook charts recently (btw. Matt Hugo does this, too as do other organisations providing long-term seasonal outlooks), but it has been ONE update and all I did was revise downwards the projected CET for Nov/Dec by about 1C overall and knock an inch or so off the England and Wales rainfall projections over both months. I have not changed the February 2017 outlook at all (and see no reason to at this stage).

[iapennell]

21 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

As someone who is new to this area of meteorology, could you possibly briefly explain the link between oceanic heat storage and AAM to me, please Ian?  I presume that circulation cells (such as Hadley cells) show an increase in flow during such periods, which, when combined with the Coriolis Effect, would increase the rate of Westertly QBO?  To use the analogy of the figure skater, if torque remains the same, and moment of inertia (planetary diameter and minimal loss to space) is also constant, then angular momentum remains the same, correct?  If this is the case, the only influence on AAM must be torque, presumably due to friction between atmosphere and planetary surface, thereby reducing the Westerly balance of the budget due to transfer of AAM to the surface.  However, I'm uncertain as to the reasons behind your statement that the net amount of Westerly AAM (the income column in the atmospheric ledgers) increases, given that you've referred to AAM as being moved between ledgers as it is transferred between the surface, oceans, troposphere and stratosphere.  To adopt your analogy, moving cash from the income column of one ledger to that of another doesn't increase the amount of cash, it merely shifts the balance elsewhere? 

@ chrisbell-nottheweatherman; As in Accounting where you move money between different ledgers, the total Angular Momentum of the Earth Atmosphere System remains constant (as required by the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum). This is not actually strictly true all of the time because there are outside forces that act on planet Earth and it's atmosphere (i.e. tidal frictional effects of the Sun and Moon against the atmosphere and oceans as the Earth rotates, smaller effects due to meteorites and out-gassing of the top of the atmosphere where this finally escapes into space). The Earth is slowing down, which is why Greenwich adds leap-seconds at the end of each year- but it is a slow process that has little overall impact on the weather in this (or any other) part of the World. For practical purposes and for the vast majority of of the time these outside forces are negligible so in terms of Westerly AAM what goes up must (eventually) be returned to the surface and the total amount of Angular Momentum of the Earth-Atmosphere system remains constant. Hence if large amounts of Westerly AAM is added to the atmosphere through frictional interaction of NE Trade Winds (and Polar Easterlies) with their underlying surfaces and there is already a large store of Westerly AAM in the Stratosphere it is not unreasonable to suppose that this will be returned to the surface in the most favoured locations (these tend to be just southwards of the main baroclinic zones in higher latitudes, such as between the Arctic interior and the North Atlantic Ocean).

Heat can be treated in a similar way: The interior of the Earth is a store of a tremendous amount of heat but because of the thickness of the crust a relatively small amount leaks out to the surface- most of this happens in volcanoes (most of which are under water and form part of the mid-ocean ridges. By far the biggest incoming of heat is that from the Sun and because of rising CO₂ levels the heat coming in from the Sun (and up from the mantle, chiefly via volcanoes) exceeds what is lost to space by about 0.25 Watts per square metre when averaged over the globe over the course of a year (however this could change and the global sign become negative with this Grand Solar Minimum about to commence). The starting point is not, therefore, a zero sum game but there is a consistent gain of heat radiation (as averaged over the year) between 40N and 35S- which has to be balanced by heat transport away from this vast region (via atmosphere and ocean) to stop it getting hotter and this heat is transported into middle and high latitudes of both Hemispheres where there is a net radiative loss (preventing those areas cooling down). Heat is transported via radiation, via conduction from the mantle, via ocean currents (this is the link with Angular Momentum) and via the wind (in Accounting terminology, akin to the transactions of money) and all component parts- oceans, ice-sheets, tropical stratosphere, tropical troposphere, higher-latitude atmosphere, higher-latitude stratosphere will all contain (in their Ledgers, to use an accounting analogy) a certain amount of heat at any fixed moment in time and they will also have so much Westerly Angular Momentum relative to the Earth beneath them. But as averaged over the year the total amount of momentum and heat contained across all the Ledgers, as it were will not change (Angular Momentum) or change little, if at all (as with heat).  

The oceans themselves are extremely important as a store of heat, particularly when ocean temperatures are warmer or cooler than usual over extensive areas because of their great heat capacity. The oceans are also a big store of Westerly Angular Momentum on our rotating Earth (owing to their sheer mass) because the direction of ocean currents near the surface or at depth represent movement of vast masses of water relative to the rotating Earth below. In higher-latitudes strong westerly winds blowing over the ocean surfaces (as is often the case in winter over the North Atlantic) leads to a loss of Westerly AAM from the atmosphere and an equal gain in the equivalent amount of momentum for the underlying water surfaces through frictional interaction between the surface waters and the Westerly winds blowing over them- and that in turn leads to the surface currents. This, for example, partly explains the existence of the North Atlantic Drift. The Westerly Angular Momentum of the oceans that results does not disappear but the eastward-moving surface currents lose this momentum through frictional shear with the more sluggish deeper waters, through the resistance this eastward-moving current encounters on reaching shallow continental shelves and coastal areas of Western Europe and (of course) when easterly winds blow over these eastward-moving waters the water loses Westerly momentum to the atmosphere- again through frictional interaction between the water and the surface winds.

In the tropics and subtropics of both Hemispheres, persistent NE and SE Trade Winds reduce the absolute westerly momentum of ocean surfaces on our rotating planet. In accounting terminology that is a cost, which leads to surface ocean currents flowing westwards against the direction of the Earth's rotation: These are the North Equatorial and South Equatorial Currents across both the Atlantic and Pacific and these too are very important because they control macro-scale developments like ENSO. These currents also give up their easterly (negative) momentum to deeper ocean waters and ultimately lose momentum when they reach the eastern coastal shelves of the Caribbean, Brazil, SE Asia, the Pacific Islands of Polynesia and Micronesia and coastal eastern Australia. On the whole, the great oceans must have relative angular momentum close to zero, the deficit in the Westerly momentum account of tropical, subtropical and polar waters (due to the Polar Easterlies) being more or less matched by the surplus (i.e. Westerly) momentum of currents in mid-latitudes; waters at great depth have little eastward or westward momentum overall. During the course of the year, whilst surface currents are locally significant, there is little significant overall change to the amount of Westerly Momentum stored in the Great Ocean Banks (again to use an accounting metaphor).     

[iapennell]

20 hours ago, J10 said:

 

A mere beginner in Accounting then.

When accounting for Tangible Fixed Assets (under old UK GAAP terminology - now known as Property, Plant and Equipment under FRS102) they would be recognized over the useful economic life of the asset and depreciated as such. Of course on a straight basis of depreciation policy there would be some benefit this year, so say a 5 yr UEL a 20% benefit over a year, or 10% over 6 months.

So using this analogy back to the current climate base state, the heat could be spread over the next 5 years, and not necessarily severely impact our winter, but there would be some impacts.  Of course the climate is never straight line, if only it was it would be so much easier to forecast.

Of course, if the heat was considered a shorter term asset one could wish to prepay the cost into the next financial year and perhaps partly even to next summer, when it would be more welcomed.

In terms of budget when they are set for a year, they are then fixed, with the actual profit/loss variance reported against this. They cannot be changed every month or so, although any variance reported midyear would be used to create an end of year forecast.

Of course things never go to plan, but as all accountants know it often is accrual world.

@ J10, Granted, there are some differences but since the overall heat and Westerly Momentum of the Earth-Atmosphere System changes very very little, if at all, there are analogies with Accounting. Depreciation of Fixed Assets is a case where the value of the asset reduces over time but (clearly) there is no beneficiary for the loss of value; yet the loss of money is accounted for through an Accumulated Depreciation Account. A Government that does a bit of Quantitative Easing arguably creates money in it's Central Bank, no-one is taxed or fined to pay for it! What matters is that when you do the end of year Accounts all beneficiaries and payers, assets and liabilities are accounted for and both sides of the Trial Balance should balance. That is not to say that a business or organisation does not make a Profit or Loss, but the difference, transferred to a Profit and Loss Account would still make the Ledgers Balance.

As regards heat, there is the heat created by radioactive decay of elements deep inside the Earth (the main reason the interior of our planet is incandescent and semi-molten- and has been so for billions of years) and this is balanced by the conduction and convection of heat to the crust and it's loss through volcanoes and the like. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere also means slightly less heat is radiated back into space than is received from the Sun (and from the Mantle) during the course of a year but all heat can still be accounted for, where it is stored and the "transactions" that occur between ocean-atmosphere, Earth-atmosphere, low-latitude atmosphere to higher-latitude atmosphere, can likewise be totalled and both sides of the Ledgers should come to the same amount. Likewise with Westerly Momentum, there will be all the Ledgers with differing stores of this Momentum (the Equatorial Stratosphere has money in it, as it were, with winds being Westerly there at present) but when you add up all the Ledgers and account for all the transactions over the year, both sides of the Ledgers should come to the same amount. There may be small gains or losses from outside the Earth-Atmosphere System in total but these are also almost always negligible in the case of Westerly Momentum (and in Accounting terms you would have a Westerly Momentum Lost to Earth Account to make the Ledgers balance).

Talking of Accruals, there is an Accrual of Income (for mid-latitudes) being built up by the strengthening NE Trades caused by cooling over the subtropical continents of North Africa and southern Asia strengthening the subtropical high there as we go into winter: The Westerly Asset stored high above the Equator is set to contribute to this Accrual of Income (Westerly AAM due to be exchanged from the Higher-Latitude Troposphere Account to the Higher-Latitude Ocean and Higher-Latitude Earth Accounts!!).

And that ain't good news for the cold-weather lovers on here!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

@ chrisbell-nottheweatherman; As in Accounting where you move money between different ledgers, the total Angular Momentum of the Earth Atmosphere System remains constant (as required by the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum). This is not actually strictly true all of the time because there are outside forces that act on planet Earth and it's atmosphere (i.e. tidal frictional effects of the Sun and Moon against the atmosphere and oceans as the Earth rotates, smaller effects due to meteorites and out-gassing of the top of the atmosphere where this finally escapes into space). The Earth is slowing down, which is why Greenwich adds leap-seconds at the end of each year- but it is a slow process that has little overall impact on the weather in this (or any other) part of the World. For practical purposes and for the vast majority of of the time these outside forces are negligible so in terms of Westerly AAM what goes up must (eventually) be returned to the surface and the total amount of Angular Momentum of the Earth-Atmosphere system remains constant. Hence if large amounts of Westerly AAM is added to the atmosphere through frictional interaction of NE Trade Winds (and Polar Easterlies) with their underlying surfaces and there is already a large store of Westerly AAM in the Stratosphere it is not unreasonable to suppose that this will be returned to the surface in the most favoured locations (these tend to be just southwards of the main baroclinic zones in higher latitudes, such as between the Arctic interior and the North Atlantic Ocean).

Heat can be treated in a similar way: The interior of the Earth is a store of a tremendous amount of heat but because of the thickness of the crust a relatively small amount leaks out to the surface- most of this happens in volcanoes (most of which are under water and form part of the mid-ocean ridges. By far the biggest incoming of heat is that from the Sun and because of rising CO₂ levels the heat coming in from the Sun (and up from the mantle, chiefly via volcanoes) exceeds what is lost to space by about 0.25 Watts per square metre when averaged over the globe over the course of a year (however this could change and the global sign become negative with this Grand Solar Minimum about to commence). The starting point is not, therefore, a zero sum game but there is a consistent gain of heat radiation (as averaged over the year) between 40N and 35S- which has to be balanced by heat transport away from this vast region (via atmosphere and ocean) to stop it getting hotter and this heat is transported into middle and high latitudes of both Hemispheres where there is a net radiative loss (preventing those areas cooling down). Heat is transported via radiation, via conduction from the mantle, via ocean currents (this is the link with Angular Momentum) and via the wind (in Accounting terminology, akin to the transactions of money) and all component parts- oceans, ice-sheets, tropical stratosphere, tropical troposphere, higher-latitude atmosphere, higher-latitude stratosphere will all contain (in their Ledgers, to use an accounting analogy) a certain amount of heat at any fixed moment in time and they will also have so much Westerly Angular Momentum relative to the Earth beneath them. But as averaged over the year the total amount of momentum and heat contained across all the Ledgers, as it were will not change (Angular Momentum) or change little, if at all (as with heat).  

The oceans themselves are extremely important as a store of heat, particularly when ocean temperatures are warmer or cooler than usual over extensive areas because of their great heat capacity. The oceans are also a big store of Westerly Angular Momentum on our rotating Earth (owing to their sheer mass) because the direction of ocean currents near the surface or at depth represent movement of vast masses of water relative to the rotating Earth below. In higher-latitudes strong westerly winds blowing over the ocean surfaces (as is often the case in winter over the North Atlantic) leads to a loss of Westerly AAM from the atmosphere and an equal gain in the equivalent amount of momentum for the underlying water surfaces through frictional interaction between the surface waters and the Westerly winds blowing over them- and that in turn leads to the surface currents. This, for example, partly explains the existence of the North Atlantic Drift. The Westerly Angular Momentum of the oceans that results does not disappear but the eastward-moving surface currents lose this momentum through frictional shear with the more sluggish deeper waters, through the resistance this eastward-moving current encounters on reaching shallow continental shelves and coastal areas of Western Europe and (of course) when easterly winds blow over these eastward-moving waters the water loses Westerly momentum to the atmosphere- again through frictional interaction between the water and the surface winds.

In the tropics and subtropics of both Hemispheres, persistent NE and SE Trade Winds reduce the absolute westerly momentum of ocean surfaces on our rotating planet. In accounting terminology that is a cost, which leads to surface ocean currents flowing westwards against the direction of the Earth's rotation: These are the North Equatorial and South Equatorial Currents across both the Atlantic and Pacific and these too are very important because they control macro-scale developments like ENSO. These currents also give up their easterly (negative) momentum to deeper ocean waters and ultimately lose momentum when they reach the eastern coastal shelves of the Caribbean, Brazil, SE Asia, the Pacific Islands of Polynesia and Micronesia and coastal eastern Australia. On the whole, the great oceans must have relative angular momentum close to zero, the deficit in the Westerly momentum account of tropical, subtropical and polar waters (due to the Polar Easterlies) being more or less matched by the surplus (i.e. Westerly) momentum of currents in mid-latitudes; waters at great depth have little eastward or westward momentum overall. During the course of the year, whilst surface currents are locally significant, there is little significant overall change to the amount of Westerly Momentum stored in the Great Ocean Banks (again to use an accounting metaphor).     

Thanks Ian, I'll have to re-read this at an opportune moment when my mind's fresher.

[J10]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

@ J10, Granted, there are some differences but since the overall heat and Westerly Momentum of the Earth-Atmosphere System changes very very little, if at all, there are analogies with Accounting. Depreciation of Fixed Assets is a case where the value of the asset reduces over time but (clearly) there is no beneficiary for the loss of value; yet the loss of money is accounted for through an Accumulated Depreciation Account. A Government that does a bit of Quantitative Easing arguably creates money in it's Central Bank, no-one is taxed or fined to pay for it! What matters is that when you do the end of year Accounts all beneficiaries and payers, assets and liabilities are accounted for and both sides of the Trial Balance should balance. That is not to say that a business or organisation does not make a Profit or Loss, but the difference, transferred to a Profit and Loss Account would still make the Ledgers Balance.

As regards heat, there is the heat created by radioactive decay of elements deep inside the Earth (the main reason the interior of our planet is incandescent and semi-molten- and has been so for billions of years) and this is balanced by the conduction and convection of heat to the crust and it's loss through volcanoes and the like. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere also means slightly less heat is radiated back into space than is received from the Sun (and from the Mantle) during the course of a year but all heat can still be accounted for, where it is stored and the "transactions" that occur between ocean-atmosphere, Earth-atmosphere, low-latitude atmosphere to higher-latitude atmosphere, can likewise be totalled and both sides of the Ledgers should come to the same amount. Likewise with Westerly Momentum, there will be all the Ledgers with differing stores of this Momentum (the Equatorial Stratosphere has money in it, as it were, with winds being Westerly there at present) but when you add up all the Ledgers and account for all the transactions over the year, both sides of the Ledgers should come to the same amount. There may be small gains or losses from outside the Earth-Atmosphere System in total but these are also almost always negligible in the case of Westerly Momentum (and in Accounting terms you would have a Westerly Momentum Lost to Earth Account to make the Ledgers balance).

Talking of Accruals, there is an Accrual of Income (for mid-latitudes) being built up by the strengthening NE Trades caused by cooling over the subtropical continents of North Africa and southern Asia strengthening the subtropical high there as we go into winter: The Westerly Asset stored high above the Equator is set to contribute to this Accrual of Income (Westerly AAM due to be exchanged from the Higher-Latitude Troposphere Account to the Higher-Latitude Ocean and Higher-Latitude Earth Accounts!!).

And that ain't good news for the cold-weather lovers on here!

Being extremely pedantic, the profit and loss account has now been replaced by the Statement of Recognised income or sometimes Income Statement, under FRS102.

Thank you also for the reminder of double entry book keeping, takes me back over 15 years ago to when I completed my professional accountancy examinations. Makes me feel old.

Of course climate or indeed weather is not as understood as the accountancy regulations, we are getting there and only by trying to learn can we get better knowledge.

Alas in my time on NetWeather many if not most people's knowledge of the weather and climate has far exceeded my own, but my interest in the subject remains undiminished.

Will we get a cold winter, I do not know, but I will continue to keep an eye out for updates including your own on this thread.

Edited November 12, 2016 by J10

[iapennell]

1 minute ago, J10 said:

Being extremely pedantic, the profit and loss account has now been replaced by the Statement of Recognised income or sometimes Income Statement, under FRS102.

Thank you also for the reminder of basic double entry book keeping, takes me back over 15 years ago to when I completed ,my professional accountancy examinations. Makes me feel old.

Of course climate or indeed weather is not as understood as the accountancy regulations, we are getting there and only by trying to learn can we get better knowledge.

Alas in my time on NetWeather many if not most people's knowledge of the weather and climate has far exceeded my own, but my interest in the subject remains undiminished.

The modern terms I have to be familiar with my AAT Accounting Course are the Income Statement and the Statement of Financial Position (for the Balance Sheet). That said, I only brought this into a discussion of my predictions for the coming winter to clarify why I do not think this winter will be a cold one. The situation high above the Equator is like an Accrual of Westerly (income) and with the QBO average of 29 mph from the West at the 30 mb level (and Westerlies also at 50 mb over the Equator) a substantial one at that. And like the bosses and managers in a business would stand to gain from the business accrual of income rather than those on the streets living in boxes the baroclinic zones of the far North Atlantic (a bit further north this year) will be the likely recipient of that accrued Westerly AAM when it touches down (as indeed it must).

That is basically the analogy I have been trying to make when conveying my reasoning as to the forecast for the winter that I have made.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well we will wait and see what happens now.  All I'll say is not one teleconnection is the driver, sometimes the signal from one is very muted and overridden.  Look at the change for Nov and Dec.  U seemed confident until the 'unexpected' rapid increase of snow in Oct in Eurasia? Why didn't your method pick up on that Ian?

BTW I like that you put it out there

 

BFTP

Edited November 13, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Have to say Ian the forecast is looking very dicey at this juncture.

Everything i see is pointing towards a very blocked set up come the end of Nov onwards, METO/Glosea/Stratosphere/Matt Hugo/EC seasonal etc etc.

So, if your right you will be trumping the entire set really !

Thats not so say you won't be right of course !

Edited November 13, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Hocus Pocus]

Hi Ian

Thanks for your response .

I hope you don't think for one minute I was having a go at you as you've probably forgotten more then I'll ever come to understand. I just think as BFTP alluded to further up that no one signal drives the other and it's more like a jigsaw with each tiny piece playing its part in the overall picture. The fact that your early thoughts have been amended  kind of shows this to the the case, though as of yet your overall forecast may well still be proven right. Either way good luck and keep posting.

[iapennell]

On 11/13/2016 at 12:19, Hocus Pocus said:

Hi Ian

Thanks for your response .

I hope you don't think for one minute I was having a go at you as you've probably forgotten more then I'll ever come to understand. I just think as BFTP alluded to further up that no one signal drives the other and it's more like a jigsaw with each tiny piece playing its part in the overall picture. The fact that your early thoughts have been amended  kind of shows this to the the case, though as of yet your overall forecast may well still be proven right. Either way good luck and keep posting.

@Hocus Pocus; It's fine, I'm not one to take offence and it is good we can have robust arguments and discussion about our favourite subjects! I did predict the weather would take a more unsettled and stormier turn heading towards December, have not abandoned that and will not do so. I did also state that this winter was not going to be as wet, stormy or mild as last winter and that there will be some cold spells; that however the season would still pan out milder and wetter than usual (this I pointed out at the outset) and the most recent patterns seem to be vindicating these assertions.

We are having a very mild run at the moment. Temperature here is 12C at present after a drizzly day with south-westerlies (this at over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines), though we had our first snowfalls of the winter last Wednesday (9th)! Westerlies with low-pressure over Scotland or to the north forecast for next few days though colder north-westerlies look set to happen later. The cold dry and frosty run is not happening at the moment but cold frosty weather is flagged up for later this month assuming the long-range outlooks prove right.

[Summer Sun]

@iapennell was adamant December wouldn't be cold when others were saying otherwise looks like Iapennell is going to be right with mild air for at least another week and the CET likely to be quite a bit above average. Then the chance of some frosts developing closer to Christmas something else he also said after would occur after mid month

"As a consequence, December 2016 looks like it will be dominated by strong west or SW winds, frequent gales in the north and west and above-normal temperatures. South as well as north will take a battering but after mid-December there is a stronger hint of colder drier conditions from continental Europe as the depressions on the more southerly routes are diverted into the Med and cold easterlies on their northern flanks eventually establishes cold frosty high-pressure conditions over central Europe. There is likely to be clear frosty weather with localised freezing fog for the Midlands, Yorkshire and eastern England but Scotland will remain under the influence of strong Westerlies bringing rain and (at times) hill snow above 600 metres' elevation"

Edited December 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Don]

On 12/10/2016 at 19:15, Summer Sun said:

@iapennell was adamant December wouldn't be cold when others were saying otherwise looks like Iapennell is going to be right with mild air for at least another week and the CET likely to be quite a bit above average. Then the chance of some frosts developing closer to Christmas something else he also said after would occur after mid month

"As a consequence, December 2016 looks like it will be dominated by strong west or SW winds, frequent gales in the north and west and above-normal temperatures. South as well as north will take a battering but after mid-December there is a stronger hint of colder drier conditions from continental Europe as the depressions on the more southerly routes are diverted into the Med and cold easterlies on their northern flanks eventually establishes cold frosty high-pressure conditions over central Europe. There is likely to be clear frosty weather with localised freezing fog for the Midlands, Yorkshire and eastern England but Scotland will remain under the influence of strong Westerlies bringing rain and (at times) hill snow above 600 metres' elevation"

Yes, his forecast looks pretty good so far unfortunately.  No disrespect to you Ian but being a die hard coldie, I'm sure you can understand why I had hoped your forecast would be wrong!

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, his forecast looks pretty good so far unfortunately.  No disrespect to you Ian but being a die hard coldie, I'm sure you can understand why I had hoped your forecast would be wrong!

But we havent had strong gales or "taken a battering".

[Nick L]

12 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

But we havent had strong gales or "taken a battering".

Agreed. Above average temperatures for sure, but it certainly hasn't been particularly unsettled, and there definitely haven't been strong winds.

[Frost HoIIow]

Even though I love cold and snow credit to him I think Ian has been nearer the mark than most so far. And we even had some in here suggesting he change his forecast after the Met Office contingency forecast was released & Ian Fergusson's posts (when they were more positive for cold). But he stuck to his guns and for now he hasn't been all that wrong IMO.

[Don]

43 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Even though I love cold and snow credit to him I think Ian has been nearer the mark than most so far. And we even had some in here suggesting he change his forecast after the Met Office contingency forecast was released & Ian Fergusson's posts (when they were more positive for cold). But he stuck to his guns and for now he hasn't been all that wrong IMO.

Exactly.  I have the utmost respect for all LRF's and whilst Ian's forecast for December may not have been spot on so far, it's been the closest IMO.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Exactly.  I have the utmost respect for all LRF's and whilst Ian's forecast for December may not have been spot on so far, it's been the closest IMO.

To add to my earlier post - we're only 11 days into December.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

To add to my earlier post - we're only 11 days into December.

We can add another week to that easily a mild week coming up so that takes us to the 18th that would leave 13 days of the month and year left

Edited December 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Exactly.  I have the utmost respect for all LRF's and whilst Ian's forecast for December may not have been spot on so far, it's been the closest IMO.

Indeed. You're pretty hot at this winter forecasting, Ian!!

[Yarmy]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Indeed. You're pretty hot at this winter forecasting, Ian!!

He's as far out as all the others (unsettled and stormy?)

Why? Because the problem to solve is so difficult, perhaps intractable. 

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

He's as far out as all the others (unsettled and stormy?)

Why? Because the problem to solve is so difficult, perhaps intractable. 

Yes no one is 100% spot on you are right there but to be fair Ian has been closer to the mark than others (including the professionals) who were going for the complete opposite which let's face it has turned out to be wrong. Ian was steadfast and had none of it (much to the mockery of a few on here)

Going off the Met Office contingency forecast I would imagine most councils were bracing themselves for quite a bit of cold and snow this month & probably spent a bit more money than usual buying supplies to deal with wintry weather. But that's not to say it won't be used in January! who knows.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Frost HoIIow