Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Wasn't it Wetterzentrale that correctly forecasted the cold snap in Dec 2010? Or was it Meteociel? Can't remember

neither - it was GP !

not going to trawl through the thread but I get the feeling that ian isn't using any models - just referencing his experience and the expected changes re the time of year and how they might interact with where we currently are.(SST'S etc)

 

[Matthew.]

From my non-degree view  the way a higher Tropical storm season has blasted heat into the arctic and the incredible low extent of sea-ice(I think we're on par with 2012 looking at the latest)  is bound to have major impacts on the vortex, weak jet etc as we've already seen. How this will affect the stratosphere above 60N and how the arctic rebounds from recent unusual events will have its own story itself I'm sure. A neutral ENSO won't make predicting any easier either. A big learning curve this season I think. SST anomalies can change quite a lot too, September 18(above) October 24(below):

Thanks to Unisys.

Edited October 27, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Methuselah]

I think we can 'over think' what might happen; by that, I mean not letting our subconscious minds do the work: sometimes, deliberately working through millions of formulae or trying to account for hundreds of acronyms does little more than confuse?

In 2009, my 'intuition' went for a cold, snowy winter but my 'rational' mind overruled it. So, this year, I am merely soaking up all the data that you guys are posting and thinking no more: my intuition says much, much colder than anything since 2013...

One way t'other, we shall see!

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

I get that : The same is true of the forecast pressure -charts on Meteociele, the French site and those produced by the Met Office. Even then, there are differences, because they will use different models and the Met. Office uses it's own very powerful super-computer capable of billions of calculations per second to run it's own predictions. Even then, the UK Met Office will only post predictions based on a mean ensemble of dozens of runs. Even then, as you will know, they still do not always get it right. 

In making predictions beyond a month one can only go by the influence of large-scale parameters that are liable to persist over the course of months ahead, such as sea-surface temperatures over different regions, the Sunspot Cycle, ENSO and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. Even with their powerful super-computers organisations like the Met Office cannot reliably predict the weather more than a month out and so we have to fall back on how the large-scale parameters influence prevailing weather conditions based on sound meteorological principals. This is what I do when I make seasonal predictions, but I would not say this infallible, because even the large-scale parameters can change in unexpected ways over two or three months (even though they are the most reliable factors to base a seasonal forecast on). A recent example of this is the QBO, which was due to go into it's Easterly Phase this summer,  but something disturbed it earlier this year and so it remains (quite strongly) Westerly. 

My understanding of the fundamentals that drive our weather, and the state of these fundamentals, does not at this moment in time convince me that recent blocking-highs over Scandinavia will feature heavily through this winter, though I am expecting some spells with cold dry and frosty weather due to high-pressure over Europe in January /February. 

I am not oblivious to what the main meteorological outlook sites are showing and do factor them into the start of my forecast period as the Winter draws close. However, one cannot go by them more than a month out. Believe you me, I have got my hopes up in the past when Wetterzentrale has shown cold northerlies bringing hard frosts a fortnight out, only to get my hopes dashed as the time drew near for the hoped-for October cold spell to happen! 

I hope this helps to clarify my stance on the major prediction sites. 

Good points  and although i agree  ,  Its your wording of your previous comment that is rather confusing.   You stated that going into  November will be wet and windy  and told us to look at the various weather sites and models  Met office included.   At no point on any models(as far as they go)  does it show anything other then a blocked atlantic.  Of course this could  all change but going on the information available  Wet and windy seems the least likely option.  Thank you for your insight into your thinkings into what the next month will provide  .

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

neither - it was GP !

not going to trawl through the thread but I get the feeling that ian isn't using any models - just referencing his experience and the expected changes re the time of year and how they might interact with where we currently are.(SST'S etc)

 

Nail on head BA, which is fine per se until the projected changes in the season take a different path to the norm. To be fair Ian's track record during the winter months with the short samples at hand has been very good but we're looking at a different NH profile at this point in the junction so all bets are off until the main players at the table show their hand over the next few weeks I would say.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

neither - it was GP !

not going to trawl through the thread but I get the feeling that ian isn't using any models - just referencing his experience and the expected changes re the time of year and how they might interact with where we currently are.(SST'S etc)

 

Wasn't just GP Blue......I take my hat off to Ian putting his thoughts out there. I'm polar opposite.....HP will imo be the driving factor in Nov....temp pattern up for grabs.

 

BFTP

Edited October 27, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wasn't just GP Blue......I take my hat off to Ian putting his thoughts out there. I'm polar opposite.....HP will imo be the driving factor in Nov....temp pattern up for grabs.

 

BFTP

Was a Questionable attempt at humour Fred -  btw, I knew you would be the 'polar' opposite. 

I think we are approaching crunch time on this - where will the December cold end up? 

[SMU]

This is my preliminary Winter thoughts.

- below average net.

- front loaded cold

- AO & NAO couplet - Negative for 2/3 months ( with a high chance of 1 record negative month )

- Continental Cold in mainland Europe a feature.

- Greenland / Iceland above average...

 

S

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was a Questionable attempt at humour Fred -  btw, I knew you would be the 'polar' opposite. 

I think we are approaching crunch time on this - where will the December cold end up? 

As I'm with Fred - although for quite different reasons - I expect that this year's December Cold will go where it usually goes...Straight down the toilet!

[Bristawl Si]

Well i havent a clue myself!

But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

So here goes:

The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was a Questionable attempt at humour Fred -  btw, I knew you would be the 'polar' opposite. 

I think we are approaching crunch time on this - where will the December cold end up? 

HP to W and NW. Displaced PV towards Scandinavia at times....Dec.  Flow mainly N of West with some potent shots from the north. General early theme.  Not a constant freeze out.  Early thoughts...

 

BFTP

[DAVID SNOW]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Well i havent a clue myself!

But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

So here goes:

The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

The form horse BB, but , about 5 or 6 weeks ago , I said I was looking forward to my late November snow (south) , so I will run with that.

[Essex snowman]

30 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The form horse BB, but , about 5 or 6 weeks ago , I said I was looking forward to my late November snow (south) , so I will run with that.

Does any see Matt Hugo saying average November do u guys think like me I love the blocked pattern I want cold to set in end of November when it will be better in Eastern Europe to get there cold here 

[DAVID SNOW]

10 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Does any see Matt Hugo saying average November do u guys think like me I love the blocked pattern I want cold to set in end of November when it will be better in Eastern Europe to get there cold here 

Not seen it, don't forget though, an average over a period of time, that being a month or a season, can 'hide' a spell of well below, or well above average temps, the winter of 2010,2011 is a good example .

[marksiwnc]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

HP to W and NW. Displaced PV towards Scandinavia at times....Dec.  Flow mainly N of West with some potent shots from the north. General early theme.  Not a constant freeze out.  Early thoughts...

 

BFTP

Is this your preliminary thought for the start of winter then mate??  anyone would take this anyday surely.   any chance of a detailed summary?? 

[weirpig]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Well i havent a clue myself!

But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

So here goes:

The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

Possibly. But by your law of averages then this year should be cold and snowy going by the previous three 

[iapennell]

12 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Your still missing the point that people are trying to make .

Wetterzentrale , Meteociel are all websites that provide us with different charts to view, whether this be the GFS, ECM, NAVGEM, GEM etc..

We are merely trying to ascertain what charts on the sites you are viewing to make your assumptions.

NOT THE WEBSITE THE CHART:)

 

You can see one of them here:

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm

The Wetterzentrale pressure charts are GFS.

 

[Nick L]

10 hours ago, iapennell said:

You can see one of them here:

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm

The Wetterzentrale pressure charts are GFS.

 

No they're not, they have all the major models. WZ is simply a hosting site where you can view all the models, much like Netweather, much like Meteociel.

Wetterzentrale means "Weather Central" in German. A central point where you can assess all models.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Nick L

[Bristawl Si]

14 hours ago, weirpig said:

Possibly. But by your law of averages then this year should be cold and snowy going by the previous three 

"Cold and snowy"? This is the UK.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Well i havent a clue myself!

But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

So here goes:

The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

I only know basics but agree with that, everyone I have spoken to knows our winters are not what they used to be 17+ years ago, not one person disagrees, except people on netweather that don't want to admit it

[Weather-history]

17 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Well i havent a clue myself!

But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

So here goes:

The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

Laws of average say that the coming winter should be a dry one then, therefore not much wind and rain if that were the case.  The last sub 200mm winter for England and Wales was just over 10 years ago.

 

[beng]

Joe B has posted the above on his Twitter feed regarding how he sees the winter pattern in the US. Just for fun, I've taken his list of analogue years and put it through the NCEP plotter for Jan 2017 (although I couldn't see one of the years that's on his minus list - so that's missing) - anyway from a UK/Europe perspective the winter would be quite interesting - although potentially frustrating at times with the core of the cold anomalies to our East; certainly a colder winter than the last 2 down here in Surrey though.

The other thing of note is that December and February have a very similar pattern - so each winter month is below average - with January being the coldest relative to its norm - close to 1.5c below the norm in the far SE. Even if I exclude 1963 from the analogue years, the pattern is very similar.

Edited October 28, 2016 by beng

[SMU]

Nice find beng

lucky I dunked mine in before him-

loving the 63 analogue!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 hours ago, marksiwnc said:

Is this your preliminary thought for the start of winter then mate??  anyone would take this anyday surely.   any chance of a detailed summary?? 

Yes I'll put my more detailed thoughts up in Nov.  I see Steve MURR has chucked his overview in...nice to see.   I want to see a very blocked Nov.  Nice interesting post from Beng...good work sir

 

BFTP 

[ALL ABOARD]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

No they're not, they have all the major models. WZ is simply a hosting site where you can view all the models, much like Netweather, much like Meteociel.

Wetterzentrale means "Weather Central" in German. A central point where you can assess all models.