November 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

November CET means and extremes

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881

8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

7.7 .... ---- mean of 2001-2015 ----

7.4 .... ---- mean of 1986-2015 ----
7.1 .... ---- mean of 1981-2010 ----

6.9 .... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 ... ... ... ... 2012 average
6.6 .... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----
6.5 .... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----

6.2 ... ... ... ... 2013 average
6.1 .... ---- mean of all years 1659-2015 ----

5.9 .... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 .... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.5 .... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

5,2 .... coldest since 1993 was 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)
4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985
3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1910 with 1862

3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)
-2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
-4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2015
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2015

Enter your forecast (one decimal thanks) in the thread by end of Monday, 31st October or take the increasing late penalties from 1st to end of 3rd Nov, This month will end the 2015-16 competition year.  Good luck !!

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Right, start of the 4 Atlantic domination months, 4 above average months, 8.7C

[Mapantz]

6.9°C

Thank you please!

[NeilN]

5.9c

[pegg24]

8c please 

[doctor32]

7.2c please

[joggs]

4.8 for me.Blocking to become more prevalent then retrogress and open up a substantial northerly.

[simshady]

4.0c please.

[Bobd29]

6 for me please

[Coldie24]

I'll go for 6.4C please. A second below average month looking likely with the weaker than average polar vortex forecast to start November.

Edited October 20, 2016 by prolongedSnowLover

[weirpig]

5.9  for me  please  a low downward trend as the month goes on.

Edited October 20, 2016 by weirpig

[Dancerwithwings]

On 19/10/2016 at 18:31, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Right, start of the 4 Atlantic domination months, 4 above average months, 8.7C

.....

I'll go with half of what you've gone for....4.4c 

Emmm,  this maybe revised come the weekend.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Relativistic]

3.6C. Extremely cold.

[Methuselah]

A bog-standard 7C please. 

[Scandinavian High.]

3.5C cold

Edited October 20, 2016 by abbie123

[Typhoon John]

A provisional 5.5C from me

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the November CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 10.3 and 11.3C after corrections. The average November following Octobers within that range is 6.2C.

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.37C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 6.7C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +1.22C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.4C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.19C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.7C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.43C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.9C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.60C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 8.0C.

November has seen a remarkable level of warming in recent decades. The current 30 year, at 7.32C, is the warmest on record and 0.5C warmer than just 18 years ago. Impressive considering the 62 years between 1744 and 1805 didn't manage a single November warmer than 7.2C.
We haven't had a November below 4C since 1923, the longest such stretch on record. The 14 years between 1910 and 1923 saw 4 Novembers below 4C.

[Guest]

9.2 for me...

[SteveB]

6.7c please

[Ice Day]

I will go early, for 5.9c

[Polar Gael]

4.5C for me please. Blocked. 

[geoffw]

6.1 please 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7.3C, please.

[JeffC]

6.3 please

[snowsummer]

3.9  please. Ever the optimist. Thank you