Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

And 3rd time wrong probably too!

What makes you come to that conclusion Frosty? Surely the evolution of a massive Russian high and troughing over or near the UK will bring the risk of Southerly winds? I do suspect at the extent of the mild air though over Europe/Scandi, seems a little OTT too me.

The GFS shows something similar to what the GEM is showing and the ECM is not a million miles away from that set up but its much further East and the UK is under the cooler air.

 

[Grimers]

The GFS model shows cold and unsettled conditions across all parts of the UK through Friday and Saturday.

   

Edited November 14, 2016 by Grimers

[phil nw.]

A lot of variety from the differing runs and models wrt any Atlantic amplification.Out to day 10 ECM is flatter upstream -it can't be accused of overplaying ridging on this run!

There does seem agreement though to flatten the pattern downstream losing the eastern block which at least would increase the chance of a Scandi.trough later on if we get further amplification across the Atlantic sector.The pattern is finally given room to move east but we do need some heights out west to produce a decent northerly.

It's still too soon to find agreement on this though as the main development of heights towards Greenland shown in other models is just out side the ECM 10 day range.

Still quite a decent GFS mean at month end

there's the Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and the Scandinavian trough.It's towards month end where the gefs have shown the move to build a ridge back towards the north west.We will have to await the ECM take on things for that period for a while longer, 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Can you elaborate please Karl?....intuition?.....other model data?, out of sinc with previous GEM data?,or just a one-liner? 

I meant it seems out of sync with the other models..plus being a coldie who has endured too much mild mush to think about, I sincerely hope the Gem is barking up the wrong tree for the third time in a row.

I personally don't believe we are facing a mild outlook next week.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is a 6 hourly one of the same model, it goes to 132 hours so the storm will come into range tomorrow - it has wind vectors on the PPN chart.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

A slightly wider view of the ECM forecast storm at +132 and +138 hours.

    

Edit for @ajpoolshark

138 hour 500-1000 hPa dam chart 

There are dew point charts but on a more local to Iceland view and only closer time frame.

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by Nouska
addition.

[weirpig]

Hopefully that feature will be downgraded on the next run. Looks very wet and wild  one to keep an eye on 

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I meant it seems out of sync with the other models..plus being a coldie who has endured too much mild mush to think about, I sincerely hope the Gem is barking up the wrong tree for the third time in a row.

But the reality is, its not out of sync with the other models, theres quite a few runs which have hinted after this upcoming chilly spell the weather could well turn milder again however on the flip side some runs havant(although none show it will turn significantly colder either) so nothing is concrete regarding this but you can't dismiss a run just because its showing you don't really want too see.

For me personally, i'll settle for anything that will get rid of that Russian high, models half heartedly hinting it may start to recede and we may see some lower heights drop into Scandi which is not a bad thing because it will bring colder air and with the PV not being too strong, any successful ridging could well help to bring any colder air which forms there over to here.

For now, all eyes on Sunday's potentially deep area of low pressure, do suspect the ECM may be overplaying this however the potential for the first 'named' storm is there.

[Spah1]

Just now, weirpig said:

Hopefully that feature will be downgraded on the next run. Looks very wet and wild  one to keep an eye on 

Why do you want it downgrading? 

[blizzard81]

FWIW I wouldn't be surprised to see the low due south east of Greenland zipping south east beneath the UK on day 11 of the ecm op. The high in the atlantic looks primed to be sucked up into the New Foundland high. Net result equals north easterly UK bound. Over analysing an operational - I know I shouldn't but those are my thoughts anyway. Plus, I enjoy analysing

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

Can you elaborate please Karl?....intuition?.....other model data?, out of sinc with previous GEM data?,or just a one-liner? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather
Reposted later.

[A.J]

15 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A slightly wider view of the ECM forecast storm at +132 and +138 hours.

    

 

hmm...interesting....a shame joe public doesn't have access to ECM dewpoints/thickness charts (if they exist)...that in conjunction with the charts below for the same time frame show a certain amount of potential for a snow event over central england as indeed the 00z run showed.... 

 

I've deleted the 00z ECM charts by mistake, but as posted this morning, here's the GFS charts for the same period from 2 days ago

  

ignore charts below, they're old charts that won't delete from the damned post!

Edited November 14, 2016 by ajpoolshark
wrong charts......repost with gfs charts from 2 days ago!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Why do you want it downgrading? 

I'm having a few days of work the latter part of the week I was hoping to sort out the garden before the onset of winter  plus our fence isn't the best 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

But the reality is, its not out of sync with the other models, theres quite a few runs which have hinted after this upcoming chilly spell the weather could well turn milder again however on the flip side some runs havant(although none show it will turn significantly colder either) so nothing is concrete regarding this but you can't dismiss a run just because its showing you don't really want too see.

For me personally, i'll settle for anything that will get rid of that Russian high, models half heartedly hinting it may start to recede and we may see some lower heights drop into Scandi which is not a bad thing because it will bring colder air and with the PV not being too strong, any successful ridging could well help to bring any colder air which forms there over to here.

For now, all eyes on Sunday's potentially deep area of low pressure, do suspect the ECM may be overplaying this however the potential for the first 'named' storm is there.

I believe any mild weather during the next few weeks will be short-lived affairs, I haven't seen any evidence of a pattern change to prolonged mild mushy swly zephyrs, and the experts haven't either! :- )

Edited November 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Why do you want it downgrading? 

Not everyone enjoys 90mph winds and the damage/expense they cause, though if that low drops further south then snow could be quite an issue!

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A slightly wider view of the ECM forecast storm at +132 and +138 hours.

    

 

I wonder if that would be a snow event for my neck of the woods? 

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I believe any mild weather during the next few weeks will be short-lived, I haven't seen any evidence of a pattern change to prolonged mild mushy swly zephyrs, and the experts haven't either! :- )

And nor have I, just saying theres the possibility(at this stage rather small) we could see a southerly flow developing, on the other hand, everything could be further Eastwards so we stay under the cooler air with most likely a flabby area of low pressure as per the ECM is showing.

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

hmm...interesting....a shame joe public doesn't have access to ECM dewpoints/thickness charts (if they exist)...that in conjunction with the charts below for the same time frame show a certain amount of potential for a snow event over central england as indeed the 00z run showed.... 

 

I

 

 

 

 

Just using the ecm 6 hourly 500mb anomaly charts it is quite difficult to follow how it arrives at this particular surface evolution although the upper low does show up over Cornwall at T132. I'm quite hopeful the ens will kick this into touch

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

And nor have I, just saying theres the possibility(at this stage rather small) we could see a southerly flow developing, on the other hand, everything could be further Eastwards so we stay under the cooler air with most likely a flabby area of low pressure as per the ECM is showing.

Agreed

[Spah1]

17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'm having a few days of work the latter part of the week I was hoping to sort out the garden before the onset of winter  plus our fence isn't the best 

Fair enough. 

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just using the ecm 6 hourly 500mb anomaly charts it is quite difficult to follow how it arrives at this particular surface evolution although the upper low dies show up over Cornwall at T132. I'm quite hopeful the ens will kick this into touch

 

it certainly looks a nasty old storm for sure if it verifies Knocker, especially southern and western facing coasts of Wales, SW and Southern England, plenty of wind,, and copious ppn regardless of ppn type....certainly one to watch with interest

[karyo]

28 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A slightly wider view of the ECM forecast storm at +132 and +138 hours.

    

 

To be honest, I really like the southerly tracking low (and potential storm) on the ECM! It would keep much of the country in chilly air for longer and there is a good potential for wintriness on hills especially.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Fair enough. 

However I do like extreme weather so it would certainly be exciting as my sons trampoline ends up in next doors garden 

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, karyo said:

To be honest, I really like the southerly tracking low (and potential storm) on the ECM! It would keep much of the country in chilly air for longer and there is a good potential for wintriness on hills especially.

Absolutely, the Ecm 12z was a cool / cold run for the most part and the longer range outlook..reading between the lines of what GloSea5, the EC32 etc are currently indicating supports more energy being pumped into the southern arm of the jet with southerly tracking lows and further weakening of the northern arm  with height rises to the n / nw or ne , a very good sign as we get closer to winter! :- ) 

All being well, this December will be more seasonal than last year's pathetic performance.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Nouska]

13 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

it certainly looks a nasty old storm for sure if it verifies Knocker, especially southern and western facing coasts of Wales, SW and Southern England, plenty of wind,, and copious ppn regardless of ppn type....certainly one to watch with interest

Only speculative at this range but I suspect if ARPEGE went out a few more frames, it would also be modelling similar to ECM. The two views are very different but that sharpening front edge at T+114 looks similar on both models.

    

[Man With Beard]

This is a monster storm on the ECM. Studying this image closely for the English Channel, we have 70 knots at 925hpa (about 80mph) and 85 or 95 knots at 850hpa (100-110mph). 

This exact scenario was shown on the GFS a few days ago, and there's a few little nasties around on the GEFS - so can't be written off.

Not following the script of this Atlantic-less autumn!