SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, exodus said:

I'm in Stansted and it still has us down for heavy snow.

Further north, I wonder where it will end up?

[alexisj9]

At the min, met office gives me sleet at 19:00, then Heavy snow at 20:00 and 21:00, light snow at 22:00.

[onepingonly]

Our has changed to only heavy snow and starting earlier. 

[Snowman.]

If the low ends up further north, those further south loose out and those further north get better prospects of snow.

Here is what the GFS is offering 

 

[Daniel*]

I overheard a lady saying it never snows in London hopefully tomorrow she changes her mind. 

Daylight slowly fading....

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Changing Skies

[Ben Blizzard]

GFS 12Z looking good for our corner tomorrow evening, and again early Friday morning. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ben Blizzard

[Day10]

19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What sort of preparations do the airports make in these situations?

I won't de-rail the thread too much! 

Numerous provisions:

From a Pilot perspective, you have HOT ( holdover times ) with regards de icing and then anti icing . Clean wing concept. You then have inevitable delays, therefore fuel and delays at destination if affected. 

Low vis can lead to increase seperation between a/c, also with a snow/slush/ice runway landing distances increase. Wind orientation and strength can put the a/c out of limits.. 

The list is endless.. 

[snowy weather]

5 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

GFS 12Z looking good for our corner tomorrow evening, and again early Friday morning. 

Holy super duper where I am we are gonna get so much snow

[Snowman.]

That has actually been backed west and so has the mild sector. This isn't what we really want to see but there is still some snow.

Edited January 11, 2017 by SN0WM4N

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

GFS 12Z looking good for our corner tomorrow evening, and again early Friday morning. 

 

 

Purples over the capital, during rush hour how thrilling! It's looking increasingly likely a good fall of snow for populated regions. I've heard local schools, have been warned of adverse weather conditions.

[A.J]

Sadly, and for the first time in ages, a bunch of posts have been removed......personal comments on fellow members is not on in any circumstances (how would you feel if the same things were said about you?)........there is always the 'report' button and as previously mentioned, the 'ignore' facility.....Asking for members to be banned will probably result in the poster asking the question being reprimanded instead....so chill, relax, and enjoy watching the snow coming in tomorrow

[Summer Sun]

[Captain Shortwave]

We are still in the window for two potential snow events, one tomorrow afternoon/evening, the second one on Friday morning, the GFS going for up to an inch in parts of Cambridgeshire but widely a centimetre or so away from the far north east of the region. For those areas where it looks more marginal (East Norfolk/Suffolk) the wind does veer enough to the north to bring down some heavy snow showers from Friday afternoon onwards with the GFS showing more than a dusting for those areas exposed to the north to north west wind.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

As @ajpoolshark. Keep the posts about others away from the thread! 

I won't comment on any snow till the rain is falling tomorrow and i can see live obvs. 

Excitment level out of a 100 for me is currently 25. 

As many times I've seen things like this go the right way, it's also gone the wrong way 

All I can say is, good luck all!!  For those that want snow 

[Southender]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

As @ajpoolshark. Keep the posts about others away from the thread! 

I won't comment on any snow till the rain is falling tomorrow and i can see live obvs. 

Excitment level out of a 100 for me is currently 25. 

As many times I've seen things like this go the right way, it's also gone the wrong way 

All I can say is, good luck all!!  For those that want snow 

Very wise Surrey. We have been here a long time and seen many "events" go titicus verticus at T+0.....

I am of the opinion that if it can go wrong for snow in our neck of the woods, it usually will!

But, how nice to be talking about a chance of snow for the first time in years!

Edited January 11, 2017 by Southender

[Seasonality]

Just now, Southender said:

Very wise.

I am of the opinion that if it can go wrong for snow in our neck of the woods, it usually will!

But, how nice to be talking about a chance of snow for the first time in years!

Would be good if it didn't settle tomorrow evening so people can get home...

[Southender]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Would be good if it didn't settle tomorrow evening so people can get home...

I don't see that being an issue.

[Seasonality]

Just now, Southender said:

I don't see that being an issue.

Me neither to be fair, Met Office still talking low risk. If there was a genuine risk of real disruption they'd update pretty quickly methinks!

[KDME]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

I don't see that being an issue.

Agreed!  

[Southender]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Me neither to be fair, Met Office still talking low risk. If there was a genuine risk of real disruption they'd update pretty quickly methinks!

Yep. Several hours of steady rain beforehand will screw any real chance of snow that sticks. Expecting some pretty hefty flakes at some point after dark, but not the sticking type due to ground conditions. So in theory there should be no issues for any city commuters. But, who knows the weather has a habit of making mugs out of us all including multi million pounds super computers and uber qualified pro's. So expect the unexpected tomorrow eve.

[Mac_SE]

Just watched that Met Office Facebook vid and it's pretty selective to have cherry picked the '15cms' statement out of the three scenarios they presented. It's a rain to snow event with the possibility of seeing nothing, a few wet flakes or a period of heavier snow for a time. Think people should manage their expectations accordingly.

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Southender said:

Yep. Several hours of steady rain beforehand will screw any real chance of snow that sticks. Expecting some pretty hefty flakes at some point after dark, but not the sticking type due to ground conditions. So in theory there should be no issues for any city commuters. But, who knows the weather has a habit of making mugs out of us all including multi million pounds super computers and uber qualified pro's. So expect the unexpected tomorrow eve.

And that unexpected could be lots of heavy rain and maybe some sleet later with little snow to speak of 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Mac_SE said:

Just watched that Met Office Facebook vid and it's pretty selective to have cherry picked the '15cms' statement out of the three scenarios they presented. It's a rain to snow event with the possibility of seeing nothing, a few wet flakes or a period of heavier snow for a time. Think people should manage their expectations accordingly.

If I was a betting man I'd go for a brief period of wintriness, no settling.

[slater]

just watched met office live facebook that was at 2pm, They are clearly saying its the most difficult forecast that they have to do in a few years. All I can say is watch this space. 

 

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

And that unexpected could be lots of heavy rain and maybe some sleet later with little snow to speak of 

Exactly and that is my best guess also. Plenty of rain with some beefy back edge flakes after dark, with no accumulations unless you are above about 150m.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Southender