SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Ben Lewis]

At the ripe old age of 34 I have witnessed lots of times a Rain to Snow event settle.

If conditions are right, cold ground and intensity of ppn, then believe me it makes no difference if the ground is soaking wet - it will settle regardless 

[Lampostwatcher]

I remember a few 80's snowfalls that started off light rain then turned to heavy snow and settled rapidly half an hour later

[Methuselah]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Temperatures will drop very quickly and once the rain turns to snow, if conditions are right it will very easily settle on wet ground. Anything that does settle will freeze solid through tomorrow night with the possibility of a top up during Friday. 

Black ice and/or frozen slush...A nightmare for drivers!

[Mark wheeler]

Remember heavy snow before after heavy rain and the snow flakes remained in cold water 

[Nick L]

44 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening 

In here from 630 tomorrow !

I love rain to heavy snow events - the transition is great fun.

I reakon 10cms over dunstable is the best we do then poss another 5 max fri AM...

Love 

10cm? Really Steve?! Even higher ground will be looking at 2-3cm at best.

[HammerJack]

If the conditions are right snow will settle. Seen it lots of times during my 37 years on earth. But I can understand peoples fears.... we've been here before and it ends up plain old rain. Fingers crossed for more luck over the coming days.

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Nick L said:

10cm? Really Steve?! Even higher ground will be looking at 2-3cm at best.

100% the sweet spot wherever that is will be North of that !

sportsmans bet?

Edited January 11, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Stuie]

I would say the majority of snowfalls are preceded by rain as the milder air is mixed out (If it happens). Snow easily settles on wet ground as per my 1st sentence. What you do need is intensity of snowfall/precipitation otherwise yes it can become a slush fest if temps are marginal.

It will be cold enough tomorrow though so no slush fest and looking at what is touted, the duration could be a couple of hours with temps dropping further. I`d expect walking home from a pub tomorrow night at midnight could equate a broken collar bone. (ICE)

Pray for intensity of precipitation!

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

What's funny is he's actually not, I asked him this on Twitter yesterday and the response was he actually much prefers the warmth. Just fortunately enough he's an enthusiastic enough forecaster to get excited no matter what

that's sad - we need to find someone to carry rob's torch. 

[Ben Lewis]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

10cm? Really Steve?! Even higher ground will be looking at 2-3cm at best.

Best get on the phone to BBC then to advise them, as they are informing the public on TV forecasts that 4-5cm at low levels is a high possibility! 

[Don]

I remember the evening snowfall of 6th January 1994 in the south east.  This followed days of heavy rain and when it turned to heavy snow, it settled very quickly on to very wet ground. It was not forecast and was caused by evaporative cooling.  I think some areas had around 4 inches in a short space of time.  Perhaps something similar could occur tomorrow?  

Edited January 11, 2017 by Don

[cjwardy]

I'm hopeful for enough here to just not be able to drive out of my road & therefore into work. I live at the bottom of a hill so shouldn't take too much.

Any guesses of how much for NW Kent?

[Weather Wonder]

16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

10cm? Really Steve?! Even higher ground will be looking at 2-3cm at best.

Even the METO think there is a possibility of 15CM and blizzards i don't think 10CM is too far off the mark especially for higher ground in the sweet spot and possibly to lower ground.

[Paul33]

This is all well and good but can somebody just tell me that the infamous Peterborough Snow Shield WILL be breached tomorrow ?

 

[pinball wizard]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

I remember the evening snowfall of 6th January 1994 in the south east.  This followed days of heavy rain and when it turned to heavy snow, it settled very quickly on to very wet ground. It was not forecast and was caused by evaporative cooling.  I think some areas had around 4 inches in a short space of time.  Perhaps something similar could occur tomorrow?  

I remember that too, I was living on the Isle of Wight at the time, got the bus back from school at 4pm and there were splodges of wet snow falling with the rain, by 5pm it was snowing, by 7pm I was out sledging, happy days indeed

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Paul33 said:

This is all well and good but can somebody just tell me that the infamous Peterborough Snow Shield WILL be breached tomorrow ?

 

Tomorrow night/Fri morn from 2nd feature could do it.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Stuie W

[Lampostwatcher]

1979 was the best ive ever seen for snow continuous heavy drifting 50 p size flake for about 2 hours with around 10 inches in the garden cant remember the month 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

1979 was the best ive ever seen for snow continuous heavy drifting 50 p size flake for about 2 hours with around 10 inches in the garden cant remember the month 

December .

 

[DAVID SNOW]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

that's sad - we need to find someone to carry rob's torch. 

No chance these days!

"At least it will be mild" is drummed into them all!

Even when that equates to your roof being blown off and your house being flooded.....

[Weather Wonder]

I think the biggest concern regarding tomorrows rain to snow event is that it forecast to occur during rush hour for most of the region and due to the preceding heavy rain gritting the roads will be a waste of time.

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Weather Wonder
typo

[stainesbloke]

59 minutes ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

We may get some settling snow and you are probably right that it'll rapidly melt on Friday. Still, after the last few hideous winters, everyone is desperate for a spell of snow, fair enough I say. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Ben Blizzard]

No upgrade to Amber from the MET just yet, didn't someone on here say that they'll be considering upgrades around 9pm or something?

[tornado tams]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

100% the sweet spot wherever that is will be North of that !

sportsmans bet?

As a Dunstable resident I hope so

[Weather Wonder]

Just now, Ben Blizzard said:

No upgrade to Amber from the MET just yet, didn't someone on here say that they'll be considering upgrades around 9pm or something?

Unless there is a downgrade in the next 12 hours i fully expect an amber warning to be issued. It was mentioned on their facebook video that once they had increased confidence the warning level was likely to be raised.

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

No upgrade to Amber from the MET just yet, didn't someone on here say that they'll be considering upgrades around 9pm or something?

thomas snowmaker is waiting for the 18z