Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Any idea as to how many T+384 charts, looking just like that one, we've seen so far, this year?

There’s more backing this time round with Exeter also going for a similar theme in synoptics ?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Beasterly has made it inside t288 on the GFS 0Z! 

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[knocker]

Don't forget the trend is your friend

[snowblizzard]

It's been so different this Winter.

I can't remember such a long period in Winter where we have had such a cold Westerly or North Westerly flow across UK?

Normally, we would see periods of SW flow with temperatures in double figures as high as 12-15c!

Hardly anything like that during the past 12-15 weeks!

Edited February 8, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Froze were the Days]

Not so sure about 'cold' westerly or north westerly flow in these parts, in the south and south east your generally talking about near normal temperatures and more than off set when we have the mild Tm interludes as per January, but yes largely the theme of the winter certainly since the New Year.

[snowblizzard]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the trend is your friend

No cold over Europe if Easterly does develop?

[jvenge]

Everyone knows an SSW could be promising for those looking for cold and I don't have any particular reason to doubt this one, either. However, can't help thinking the output thread is populated people by seeing things in the output that just isn't there yet. Just usual FI promises. If and when it comes, it won't be on a countdown from T360, but more like between T168 and T240.

 

[snowblizzard]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Everyone knows an SSW could be promising for those looking for cold and I don't have any particular reason to doubt this one, either. However, can't help thinking the output thread is populated people by seeing things in the output that just isn't there yet. Just usual FI promises. If and when it comes, it won't be on a countdown from T360, but more like between T168 and T240.

 

T96!!

[knocker]

I notice that people are being told in the model output thread to go away and post in the correct thread. That's irony finally dead and buried then.

[sparky1972]

need to change the name of the model output thread to "proper cold spell inbound sometime in 2019 maybe 2020 possibly"

[knocker]

My cup runneth over........................

Edited February 8, 2018 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

My cup runneth over........................

can just spot the residual train of LPs across the Atlantic from the PV over canada?

[Always a red]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

I notice that people are being told in the model output thread to go away and post in the correct thread. That's irony finally dead and buried then.

Yes its as if some people have a hidden agenda......imagine that eh!

[snow freak]

17 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wouldn't occur Dec and Jan though, hard enough nowadays as it is, SSW's mainly happen Feb/Mar

I wish some people would stop going on about snow not being worth having in February or March as it doesn't hang around because of the sun's strength and lengthening days.  There have been occasions when we have had snow in late March and it has stay around for a few days whereas on other occasions we have had snow in December or January and it has literally melted within a day so that proves the conditions are more dependent on the atmospherics more than the months themselves in the winter.  March can be much colder and snowier than the other winter months.

[snow freak]

I must admit that if we don't have one last good snowfall event before this winter is out and the much talked about SSW fails to give us something decent, then I for one am going to stop watching the models or be interested in hearing what the weather may or may not do and just take it as it comes each day.  At least that way I won't be constantly disappointed.  After all, forecasting is nigh impossible for our island as it is influenced by so many factors, unlike our continental cousins who have far more reliable weather patterns.

[snow freak]

7 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

It's been so different this Winter.

I can't remember such a long period in Winter where we have had such a cold Westerly or North Westerly flow across UK?

Normally, we would see periods of SW flow with temperatures in double figures as high as 12-15c!

Hardly anything like that during the past 12-15 weeks!

I tend to agree with you on that although cold westerly's are a waste of time as they fail to produce anything other than rain unless you're at altitude in Scotland or Northern England.  I am a coldie but if we are going to get westerly's I would prefer the warmer variety so at least I can turn the heating down a little and save some money. 

[Shunter]

 

 

So 3 days after the SSW event and its associated Easterly wind reversal, how is the Jetstream still pumping out nigh on 200MPh winds across the Atlantic?  

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Shunter said:

 

 

So 3 days after the SSW event and its associated Easterly wind reversal, how is the Jetstream still pumping out nigh on 200MPh winds across the Atlantic?  

Because it's only 3 days after the event.

[weather_it_will]

12 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

need to change the name of the model output thread to "proper cold spell inbound sometime in 2019 maybe 2020 possibly"

Call me sceptical, but the last few winters we have had this hopecasting strat warming nonsense in the model thread when Winter is nearly over, and no severe cold weather ever happens.

[Seasonal Trim]

I do wonder if people come to this forum not realising its a weather forum, and complain about others discussing the weather!

[snowfish1]

North westerlies are a bore fest for the South East with the odd exception. Scotland's is just getting greedy now much to my chagrin

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

North westerlies are a bore fest for the South East with the odd exception. Scotland's is just getting greedy now much to my chagrin

its brought nothing but rain for 95% of the time here in NW England at 200m..

Another dreadful GFS run this morning- 

hopefully sunday will be the last hurrah for my region.

[knocker]

One is forced to say the ext EPS is a thing of beauty this morning with the Azores taking closer order. Portends calm and cold, what say you Sidney?

is that you knocker?

Edited February 9, 2018 by knocker

[Tracy Flick]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

One is forced to say the ext EPS is a thing of beauty this morning with the Azores taking closer order. Portends calm and cold, what say you Sidney?

is that you knocker?

The MetO outlook has seemed to emphasize the 'dry' and the 'settled' more than the 'snow' for several days now.

 

[Shunter]

18 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Because it's only 3 days after the event.

 

•  
•  

 

right.........so a further 4 days on ????  Still the same ! 

 

Surely the Jet should be responding to Easterly Zonal wind influences ( if indeed they ever arrive ) ?

 

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Shunter