Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Hanny]

10 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Daily express at it again 

Well thats jinx the next cold run - if they had put 'UK about to have a heat wave....hottest Feb on record' ...... then we would be in with a chance of snow.

[wrightc23]

8 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Oh Blimey, Must be right then. I'd better get the snow blower out and fill the freezer ;-)

We could just ditch the model output thread and base our decisions on when the express, mail and star all converge on their imminent predictions of snowmageddon?

[cheshire snow]

18 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Daily express at it again 

Well to be picky they screwed that up.snow on high ground only Manchester south

C.S

[Norrona2015]

Over on the MT, image of Buzzard distribution in the UK?????......... if anyones interested.

[knocker]

 

[Methuselah]

Will the toys be out of the prams by tomorrow morning? That is the question.

[Carl46Wrexham]

3 hours ago, wrightc23 said:

Funnily enough I've just visited the Daily Express website and the main article splashed across the homepage is 'Britain on HEAVY SNOW ALERT: Polar vortex to plunge UK into WORST January FREEZE in years'. Which model are they using? It can't be any I've seen before.

The James Madden book of fairy tales. Forworded  by that other cretin Nathan Rao.

[Methuselah]

More 'shortwave drama' coming up...Never could stand The Archers!

[nick sussex]

Any chance that Euro slug high might get lost before I'm pushing a zimmer frame around! Jeez just go!

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It's going this time nick - all the ens runs can't be wrong day after day ....... can they?

It going has been modelled at day ten for what seems like weeks! It crxpped all over my Christmas and meant I had to shelve my husky ride, the mountains look the worst I've seen since in January since I've been down here. I'm close to losing it big time if that wretched slug doesn't do one soon. As you can tell I'm just slightly irritated! lol

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

This time is different - this time we have all the ens suites in broad agreement and they have counted down from 15 days. We are now at day 10 on this cycle and we haven't fallen off yet. Previous examples thus far have not had Canadian ens with us.

I'll hold you to that! lol I really hope we get a stress free route to something more interesting, the bottle bank think I'm running  a bar!

[knocker]

Remarkable similar at that range

[Tonyinhampshire]

With all these building blocks in place, no wonder the UK has a housing shortage !!!

[knocker]

I notice that 'cold shots' now translates to transient incursions of Pm air and snow showers at Invergordon. The whiff of cordite is getting stronger.

[Carl46Wrexham]

They don't make "cold shots" like they used to. Back in 2004 a polar maritime NW flow gave yours truly a White Christmas. Fast forward to the winter of 2015/16. Sure snow fell at elevation, down at lower levels we ended up with nearly 2 inches of rain falling with flooding and water logging all over. Another so called cold shot delivered a cm of greyish slushy muck..was like porridge. Nah...keep the cold shots thanks. Not a fan of cold rain at all...sorry.

[Southender]

Starting to get that sinking feeling already about this winter.

Another that could of delivered, but hasn't (yet)

Frustrating to see yet again a few hundred miles to our East they are in a deep freeze, even Greece/Turkey/Cyprus etc....but as usual it never makes it here despite charts hinting at it every so often. Usually at the famous "Day 10" mark which never gets any shorter.

Better than the usual rain/wind/zonal dross for sure, but equally as gutting when you see what they are getting on the continent.

There cannot be a worse place on Earth at our latitude for snow, than the UK.

Someone turn off the jet stream just for a couple of weeks....please......transient cool shots from the N/NW just won't cut it I am afraid. Especially darn sarf. But I fear this is the only option on the table this winter. Sigh. 

**Google searches "Homes in Canada"**

Edited January 4, 2017 by Southender

[sundog]

When we get to the end of this month all our hopes will probably be resting on feb to save our winter . Our hopes resting on feb to save us has been a common thing in recent yrs,only thing is recent febs have failed aswell.

[Methuselah]

Signs of a better easterly farther down the line, I see...Shades of '76 methinks!

[Carl46Wrexham]

When I see posts in the model thread describing transient cold shots (which will probably bring wet weather away from elevation) as "better than nothing"...then we've got problems. That and the chasing of Jam tomorrow charts at Day 10..a regular feature of past failed winters and it becomes more and more difficult to keep any sense of optimism about this season.

[sundog]

After all the hype and hope ,this winter has turned into a greek tragedy 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, sundog said:

After all the hype and hope ,this winter has turned into a greek tragedy 

With maybe an air of a Brian Rix farce?

[Ben Lewis]

59 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

When I see posts in the model thread describing transient cold shots (which will probably bring wet weather away from elevation) as "better than nothing"...then we've got problems. That and the chasing of Jam tomorrow charts at Day 10..a regular feature of past failed winters and it becomes more and more difficult to keep any sense of optimism about this season.

Voice of Reason right there.. Couldn't have put the following better....''Model thread describing transient cold shots (which will probably bring wet weather away from elevation) as "better than nothing"...then we've got problems''

I tend to find the ''Its only December'' and ''Its only January'' posts equally cringeworthy. One would think we live in some parallel universe where the snow will come if we keep waiting. Where have these people been since November 2013

Edited January 4, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[joggs]

Aaaargh.Slug of a high and strong jet streak leaving The US seaboard.F**k off already.Nearly every b***ard winter.

[Carl46Wrexham]

23 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Voice of Reason right there.. Couldn't have put the following better....''Model thread describing transient cold shots (which will probably bring wet weather away from elevation) as "better than nothing"...then we've got problems''

I tend to find the ''Its only December'' and ''Its only January'' posts equally cringeworthy. One would think we live in some parallel universe where the snow will come if we keep waiting. Where have these people been since November 2013

Fits in nicely with the timeline of a failed winter.

First comes the hype in either October or November..this winter begins with talk of "front loaded winter", which failed to materialise. Once we reach January then the talk turns to "it's only January...plenty of winter left"...or when things looks really lousy, describe transient cold shots as better than nothing. Jam tomorrow charts at Day 10 dominate the forum...none of them however come within 168 hours of fruition...The clock meanwhile ticks on.  January passes into February...another snowless month away from high ground in Scotland...."February can be the coldest month of the winter' the optimists cry. More time goes by...the Spring flowers are out..February fails to deliver...another snowless winter...the cries of "remember March 2013" begin to pipe up...

And on it goes....

 

[Number 23]

With reference to a post I read above but now cannot locate to quote - yes I'd describe being led up the garden path as a potent Easterly being advertised by all models at +96 suddenly dissolving in the space of an afternoon.

There's been nothing approaching that this winter - instead a vast amount of confusing okey-cokeys with scenarios mainly in the 7-10 day range. I did have a hunch after the slew of runs around the time of 'that 6z' a few days ago we'd get at least a cold albeit heavily modified end result - but for the majority anything from the NW is about as interesting as the Emmerdale Omnibus at your Mother-In-Law's on a Sunday afternoon.

It's always folly to write off the rest of winter with two-thirds left, but my gut tells me we've already experienced our 'no cigar' moment, and without a rapid change of fortune it's going to be scraps from here. Of course many experts may disagree which is why I'm not in the MOD...