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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

Folks in Northern Scotland could wake up on boxing day with temps 10c lower then Christmas day.

 

25 12 9am.png

26 12 9am.png

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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A big juicy anticyclone next week on the Ecm 12z..yummy:D

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

I'd prefer it 200 miles north so the centre was over us and -10 could possibly be achieved under clear skies. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is ECM about to follow the GEM

Gosh I hope so:cold:

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Gosh I hope so:cold:

IMG_3829.PNG

Not quite but some heights building into Greeny 

and there she is.

IMG_3830.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Ecm 12z looks strongly anticyclonic next week with night frosts and fog, could be worse, at least there are no southwesterly zephyrs!:drunk:

T+240 looks like the Gem:cold:

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850 (1).png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

ECM says yes to GEM although not as amplified:D

ECH1-240.GIF.pnggemnh-0-240.png


                                                                                                                           

 

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
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Posted

Oh my word ... It's a Christmas present from the ECM. 

The first model to show the mid-Atlantic ridge, about 3 days ago, was the UKMO. GFS occasionally flirted with it. Now we have the ECM going full bore, smorgasbord on a block.

It may not come off but at least it's eye candy for sore eyes. Wow.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

And the ECM serves an ace...But wait - what will Hawkeye say?:santa-emoji:

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

I have been looking long and hard at that ecm day 10 chart and trying to figure out if the high will topple. I don't think it would but I am not absolutely sure.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

There was some 00z EC ens cluster support for a ridge to the W of UK / SW of Iceland days 8-10, so the 12z EC det at day 10 may not be such a wild card.

 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Seems the ECM 12z used the Pacific typhoon to really amplify the upstream pattern.

@Bring Back1962-63 you made a great point about that typhoon earlier. It could be a (temporary at least) game changer but of course the models are far from reliable with these sort of things.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

And just for laughs, yes it is Christmas :rofl: the Ecm ops at day 9 show a very mild airflow followed shortly a few hours later by an extremely cold air flow at day 10! You cant make it up...:rofl:

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

freezing.gif

i2OHZE9.gif

joke.png

jokex.png

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Rather a nice chart to start the new year, though one chart at day 10 doesn't really amount to much, its still nice to have from ECM. And at least it ties in loosely to the METs mid Atlantic ridge disscusions of a few days ago. Way more charts needed to firm up, but at least it could be a starting point r.e the det runs. 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by chris55
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mcweather Aficionado

mcweather

Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
Posted

Is that  the sound of toys being picked up and put back in prams I can hear.

Just when Christmas was starting to look a bit dull model wise the ECM GEM and even the GFS try their best to deliver a nice present

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Seems the ECM 12z used the Pacific typhoon to really amplify the upstream pattern.

@Bring Back1962-63 you made a great point about that typhoon earlier. It could be a (temporary at least) game changer but of course the models are far from reliable with these sort of things.

Let me make sure I'm picking this up right. Is it being claimed that Nok-Ten (current position and intensity below) is responsible for the amplification and Atlantic ridge on day ten of the ecm output? If so I feel I'm rapidly in need of sedation.

30W_gefs_latest.png

Edited by knocker
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
26 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I have been looking long and hard at that ecm day 10 chart and trying to figure out if the high will topple. I don't think it would but I am not absolutely sure.

ECM is defo toppler scenario way too much going upstream but if the downstream favours well you could drag some north easterly winds off it as the high sinks with a low underneath. No major HLB blocking looks likely but a toppler with the right downstream over Europe will do us well 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

 

5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM is defo toppler scenario way too much going upstream but if the downstream favours well you could drag some north easterly winds off it as the high sinks with a low underneath. No major HLB blocking looks likely but a toppler with the right downstream over Europe will do us well 

Thats pure guesswork. Looks like a building high rather than a toppler to me!

But neither of us will ever no, as the ECM 12z for today will never go any further lol.

Edited by chris55
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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted
4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM is defo toppler scenario way too much going upstream but if the downstream favours well you could drag some north easterly winds off it as the high sinks with a low underneath. No major HLB blocking looks likely but a toppler with the right downstream over Europe will do us well 

Yes also we need a good old cold front for a few cm's before the toppler topples:

IMG_0872.PNG

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Nice to see 850s below the 81-2010 average on ECM ( not a 10 day mean, just a representation of the OP/Det)

ECMOPEU12_240_34.png

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