Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Derecho]

The ensembles represent an upgrade. Although the OP isnt anything special a fair few members develop serious heights over Greenland. The control in particular is cold.

Best of the lot though is P4 which is an absolute stunner. A massive Greenland high leaves an unstable air mass over the UK and at one point we get -15C uppers over the UK. January 1881 esque
 

 

 

 We can dream...lol

The number of cold runs is increasing however, lets hope the ECM provides a christmas cracker!

[Iceberg]

Gfs ens are really strong for some severe cold. Approx 10 have what I could call severe cold sub -8 850s. 

With more and more going for cold

ive also included a previous one from earlier to see how much the deep cold is advancing 

[radiohead]

Hmmmm

[Ali1977]

ECM day 8 looking good, and following some of the better GEFS creating a good block to our NW- an important EPS tonight, if it back the colder GEFS I'd say this is very noteworthy. Lets see what's showing at 240 first though

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Hmmmm

 

60 to 80mph winds across parts of England and Wales if that comes off

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

60 to 80mph winds across parts of England and Wales if that comes off

Those winds are at 850mb, not at the surface.

[Ali1977]

BOOM ECM

This plus GEFS = good looking Synoptics for coldies

Edited December 28, 2016 by Ali1977

[Aaki Khan]

ECM T216 Pretty 

[Summer Sun]

Cold air flooding south a D9

[Purga]

ECM @ 216hrs looking pretty interesting.

From a slightly different perspective as well

Edited December 28, 2016 by Purga

[radiohead]

Wintry showers sweeping in from the northwest at T216 on the ECM

[SMU]

KABOOM

Perfect wedge splitting the jet - note the 2 lows - just like 2010- 1 low either side of the GH ( NW side & SW side )

Edited December 28, 2016 by Steve Murr

[swfc]

Great eye candy from ecm but given the change from this morning and gfs 12z id hold off and wait for the ens ete before getting carried away.

..

Edited December 28, 2016 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

MUCH better Ecm det, a million miles better than that 12z gfs!

[doctor32]

All i need to see tonight... surely i more potent cold spell if this comes off. All is good in the hood

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

KABOOM

We can all dream but whereas when I saw charts like this years ago, I'd be filled with anticipation and glee, I can only now sigh with sadness. I suppose experience is trumping hope now?  :-(

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

KABOOM

Likey steve likey! Cold Pm air flooding into the UK! Can we have a stevie murr detailed post tonight? 

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

We can all dream but whereas when I saw charts like this years ago, I'd be filled with anticipation and glee, I can only now sigh with sadness. I suppose experience is trumping hope now?  :-(

Maybe its the prospect of being burnt so many times.... 

[Snowman.]

[radiohead]

It's beautiful....

Edited December 28, 2016 by radiohead

[Summer Sun]

Bitter end to ECM with northerly winds

[northwestsnow]

Just now, radiohead said:

It's beautiful....

OMG that looks amazingballs!! Hoping and praying for some ens support, is it asking to much???

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Proper frigid Easterly after that wouldn't be out the question either.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

OMG that looks amazingballs!! Hoping and praying for some ens support, is it asking to much???

another 'That Ecm' I feel, because that 240 chart is very snowy for my location

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Proper frigid Easterly after that wouldn't be out the question either.

Not wrong, that would go on to be a proper deep freeze for several days.