Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry,late to the party been out for dinner but WOW what a run from the ECM,when i saw the 240 hr chart i thought now that's an omega block

the noaa chart's are out knocker and to me the 8-10 dayer looks good to me with a neg tilted =ve height's up towards Greenland and a marked trough digging down from the north

Reykjavik pressure chart shows that we need more on board(up trend) but as always that far out you will never get that consistency,and the second one is for S Yorkshire and we need these to trend down

p.s did i just see a big ramp from Mr gibbs

 

 

[stewfox]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

@Stewfox

Not good (read awful) 12z output for coldies from UKMO and GFS in the more reliable. Snow chances and cold upper air very limited and short lived. (yeah right) 

What's with the, "yeah right" comment? 

It was a perfectly accurate appraisal of GFS and UKMO 12z Op output and not the first time you had a little dig after quoting me - but then I guess fun posts are a good way of disguising personal digs.

 

 

Not a dig but removed. Going forward if i do 24hr summary i wont quote people as you say its not fair and i should ask. and keep within context. I was referring to improved data in evening but you were not to know that at the time.

Edited December 28, 2016 by stewfox

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

 

 

Well said re: the models. But even more reason that writing off cold for weeks at a time before the last of the Christmas turkey is binned could have been rather misguided. Lessons here for all if the cold spell comes off. Even for those who should know better.

Are you including me in that statement?

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Are you including me in that statement?

I doubt it Steve, he was probably referring to long standing members who jump on the standard model  'rollercoaster' 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

 

 

Well said re: the models. But even more reason that writing off cold for weeks at a time before the last of the Christmas turkey is binned could have been rather misguided. Lessons here for all if the cold spell comes off. Even for those who should know better.

Shouldn't  we wait until we have convincing deep cold within 7 days before posts like this? 

[Eskimo]

Back edge snow more pronounced on the latest GFS run. Parts of the Midlands, especially those on hills will get something no doubt. 

[MR EXTREMES]

Been here before but lovely eye candy but very volitle and I see heights more likely will sink southeast over the uk.

I think the first northerly is likely to be short snap and then cold cool surface heights over especially southern half of the uk.

 

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Not a dig but removed. Going forward if i do 24hr summary i wont quote people as you say its not fair and i should ask.

I don't mind the quotes or witty comments on them but that just seemed like a pointless dig rather than a witticism. I'll take you at word if you say it wasn't.

Otherwise enjoyable posts thanks.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Mucka

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

 

 

W

I wonder if we could get a bit of a deceleration of the front / hang back over the south / south east as it struggles to clear - with a cold undercut-

another watch out!!

[NorthYorksWeather]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Back edge snow more pronounced on the latest GFS run. Parts of the Midlands, especially those on hills will get something no doubt. 

Indeed here's a closer look, Northern Pennines, Yorkshire Dales, Pennines and Peak District potentially in for a spell of snow Sunday afternoon?

[Team Jo]

Just going to drop in now and kindly ask that we keep to model discussion and anything specific you feel that needs to be said to another member that isn't model discussion or is more personal for that individual is done via PM.

C'mon guys we are all a bit fraught with the chase for cold, and I get that nerves are frayed, but please keep it civil.

[Allseasons-Si]

No one mentioned the 12z gfs/p has snow down to the south coast

and again at 168 hrs but that's pushing it lol

Edited December 28, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Shouldn't  we wait until we have convincing deep cold within 7 days before posts like this? 

Hi BA, maybe the last line of his post was unnecessary but the main point is, whatever the models show, they are always subject to change at very short notice for both better or worse. Something we should all remember. 

[snowbunting]

4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don't see a great deal changing ahead, the models are finding their way.   I asked the other had there been an SSW and reply was no and thus then I thought the HLB beauties wouldn't hold long.  But mind you the slug and blocked Atlantic has stumped everyone so who really knows.

However, there is masses (and i mean masses) of seriously cold air to tap into and building and I am convinced a major arctic/continental arctic outbreak is coming for us around mid month onwards.  Before that we are already going to get some nice cold conditions 

BFTP

 

Agreed Blasty. Very cold events do no have to originate from NLy blocking events. We have seen plenty on the past come polar maritime directions.

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Shouldn't  we wait until we have convincing deep cold within 7 days before posts like this? 

I see your point but note the "could" and "if" in my post.

[liam300]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No one mentioned the 12z gfs/p has snow down to the south coast

Met office aren't convinced with 10 degrees highlighted for my area. Front would have to stall significantly. 

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I wonder if we could get a bit of a deceleration of the front / hang back over the south / south east as it struggles to clear - with a cold undercut-

another watch out!!

The cold front does seem to slow as it reaches the south coast, thanks to the frontal boundary being linked to the west with the low edging towards Iberia and also moving into high pressure over the near continent. 0Cdewpoint line does catch up the precip by early Monday.

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, liam300 said:

Met office aren't convinced with 10 degrees highlighted for my area. Front would have to stall significantly. 

As a matter of fact the GFS 18z hints at the front stalling during the early hours of 2nd Jan over Southern Britain.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, liam300 said:

Met office aren't convinced with 10 degrees highlighted for my area. Front would have to stall significantly. 

that chart i posted is for 7pm, temps coming down later in the day as the cold front comes through.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[snowice]

18z Gfs and ecm at 144 are poles apart.

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The cold front does seem to slow as it reaches the south coast, thanks to the frontal boundary being linked to the west with the low edging towards Iberia and also moving into high pressure over the near continent. 0Cdewpoint line does catch up the precip by early Monday.

Yep another day watching the luton downs webcam  transition to snow before greenhithe at sub level  goes last!

18z trending is towards ECM - remember the 2 ships - needed biggest distance poss

12z - hugs

18z seperation

 

means we should trend better this run....

 

[Daniel*]

GFS 18z is a right mess.

Not a pretty picture - with the reemergence of stubborn Euro heights to the S.

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Changing Skies

[SMU]

Wait for 192 ^^^ you willstart seeing the similarities to the ECM

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

GFS 18z is a right mess.

Not a pretty picture - with the reemergence of stubborn Euro heights to the S.

 

It's not stubborn, it drifts away fairly quickly

De ja vu incoming...

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Changing Skies said:

GFS 18z is a right mess. Not a pretty picture - with the reemergence of stubborn Euro heights to the S.

 

Better than the 12z at 180 though CS with better height rises toward Greenland