Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Wait for 192 ^^^ you willstart seeing the similarities to the ECM

You certainly will!!!!!   could actually trump the ECM by way of more PPN but obviously to far out to worry about that.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes.

[Nick F]

Northerly part 2 end of next week on 18z? Just need to beat down that ridge over France more though! At least GFS  and EC are singing from the same hymn sheet now until then.

[Jason M]

Pressure still very high over France / Spain though so cold air is going to struggle to get south unless that changes.

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM/GFS at 192 hrs ,SNAP

now lets see if we can get that omega block at 240,that would be very good indeed.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

Not surprisingly, GFS not sending much se so too much going north will likely flatten the ridge somewhat. - bit like what we have upcoming.

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM/GFS at 192 hrs ,SNAP

now lets see if we can get that omega block at 240,that would be very good indeed.

 

 

It's not going to happen high will be slap bang over us. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not surprisingly, GFS not sending much se so too much going north will likely flatten the ridge somewhat. - bit like what we have upcoming.

Yes but its an improvement on the 12z, so hopefully ECM is leading the way and GFS gradually starts to smell the coffee run by run and catch up. Hopefully its massive mild outlier and the GEFS ens are stellar again

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

It's not going to happen high will be slap bang over us. 

ROFL

Give it time, its moved a lot closer to ECM . As I say go through the ENS individually and see how it all pans out, it will give you the bigger picture, I for one am already pleased with GFS 18z

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Further to the above the support is clear to see in the ENS with the control going off as run of the year with deep cold from the east...

What are the synoptics of the control anybody who has access?

Sudden switch from N.westerly to N.easterly.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

It's not going to happen high will be slap bang over us. 

Nope,not this time but it;s a step in the right direction snowice

[chris55]

Angle of energy coming out of the US is wrong on 18z and pushes the high over.

subtle differences but if we want a proper HLB like ECM we need that energy to be negatively tilted and that will essentially suck the high north as opposed to pushing it over.

However a Scandi high is a possibility even if the high does and up going over.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

What are the synoptics of the control anybody who has access?

Sudden switch from N.westerly to N.easterly.

Here you go buddy,an easterly of some some sorts at the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

[radiohead]

Position of the high on the 18Z ends up being placed quite similar to the 12Z by T240.

[Nick F]

Looking at the NH profile day 10 18z GFS vs 12z EC, you can see the differences upstream with the EC having a negative tilt and MLB undercut to the 500mb trough over the eastern side of N America and far NW Atlantic, where as GFS has positive tilt and much more deep and intense 500mb vortex over Canada. GFS seems rather keen, perhaps too much, on intensifying the trop PV over Canada.

 

[phil nw.]

This run pretty much follows the12z gefs clusters where 85% supported a second northerly around days 8/9.

Good too that it is more in line with the ecm suite with a second ridge rising a liitle further west.

Edited December 28, 2016 by phil nw.

[Zakos]

Difference between the 18z and 12z at 198 is huge over the atlantic and Greenland.

By the looks of it this ridging in the atlantic is dealing a good bit of damage to the PV.

 

 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Whilst it may not be as pretty as the ECM, the toppler at day 9 on the GFS is a pretty decent one at that with -12c uppers into Scotland and -10c pushing down across the country.

With those uppers there would be plenty of instability.

If the ECM 12z wasn't as good Id be happier with the GFS 18z however I want that big juicy Greenland high please.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

What are the synoptics of the control anybody who has access?

Sudden switch from N.westerly to N.easterly.

Small Depression runs ssw  along the edge of  ridge over the uk into euro low. Ridge then  builds  across to s scandi 

uk under cold high post day 10 and a  (v v cold) easterly flow towards the end.

Edited December 28, 2016 by bluearmy

[Nick F]

Nick Sussex in the Pyrenees will be salivating over the 18z GFS FI, though he's not around recenty

Overall, a fairly cold run for the UK though, bar a brief warm up between the two northerlies.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Nick F

[Jason M]

No chance of any HLB on the 18z. No doubt the GEFS will continue to throw out better solutions deep in FI but personally i'm very wary of anything that advertises HLB as it never makes it past day 10. Frustrating, but I cant help but think ECM is up to its old over amplification tricks again.

 

 

[Gael_Force]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Depression runs southwest along the edge of  ridge over the uk into euro low. Ridge then  builds  across to s scandi 

uk under cold high post day 10 and s uk weak (v v cold) easterly flow towards the end.

Thanks. I assume the 18z is showing a version of this with the very cold air coming west at a more southerly point.

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

It's not stubborn, it drifts away fairly quickly

De ja vu incoming...

The irony in the De ja vu! 

I suppose it is a step towards the ECM it all looks rather messy/complicated. So be ware pursuing bite 2 isn't going to come with ease. More twists to come good and bad.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows plenty of snow, especially for scotland..disappointing it certainly isn't, at least for the north. I think this winter has been very disappointing so far, certainly in terms of lack of the white fluffy stuff but there are signs that could change significantly during the next few weeks!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Safe to say that we are in for quite a shift in weather patterns come 2017! 

Before concluding things, let's see how this high pressure system behaves during its ridging up towards Greenland. The first northerly looks a certainty now, it's just the opportunity for a reload that we will need to watch for carefully. 

We would want things to pan out as per the ECM in my view for a decent chance of a prolonged cold spell due to the negative tilted jet stream and a more pronounced retrogression of the high up to Greenland. This would result in a better shot of cold towards our shores too. 

What I am liking at the moment however is the forecasted cold pooling set to take place over to the NE, which will give plenty of noteworthy cold to potentially tap into if we somehow manage to pull off a beasterly.