Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[stewfox]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A little low in Iberia blocks heights from the south at T132 ... what impact will this have later on?

Wasn't there yesterday

[blizzard81]

Gfs 06z going the nice, easy, stress free way to cold

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Johnp said:

Am I correct in saying we will no longer be getting any nuggets from Ian F because some plonker copied everything to Facebook?

Shame if so as it'd be interesting to hear the Met office view.

It's a shame - but I wonder if anyone has had a word with the said plonker, as they might not realise what they did was wrong, and then @Ian Fergussoncan return and give us the much needed updates.

[booferking]

6z is brill high never sinks holding to the colder air longer now a reload incoming.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs 06z going the nice, easy, stress free way to cold

This run looks great , wouldn't it be great if we sprung a noteworthy freeze out of this.

[Luke Attwood]

6z looking cold all the way to T180 due to lower pressure over Iberia. No mild blip midweek looks cold all the way.

[radiohead]

Could be an interesting FI coming up? We've seen plenty of them pop up in the GEFS so only a matter of time before an Operational run gave us some eye candy.

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It's a shame - but I wonder if anyone has had a word with the said plonker, as they might not realise what they did was wrong, and then @Ian Fergussoncan return and give us the much needed updates.

can we move on from this please, it's not model output discussion....thanks

[northwestsnow]

Very happy with 6z!! Thinking parts of Scotland will be really quite snowy as we move through the 1st week of January..

[Nick F]

Liking the 2nd northerly on 06z GFS, with a deep low down the North Sea helping less modification of a stronger arctic flow, pity it will unlikely verify like that at the surface at that range but overall the upper pattern from the  ops and ens continues to support the 2nd northerly

[johnny1972]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

What does that actually mean ? More evidence? 

How can 1 comment on a day 10 chart have more evidence than another?

 

Steve

FG was at that last night with Mountain Shadow when posts clearly explained why he believed the initial northerly would only last upto 36hrs. He then gave his reasoning. Some people just don't read posts properly.

johnny

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with 6z!! Thinking parts of Scotland will be really quite snowy as we move through the 1st week of January..

Definitely! Scottish snow fans would be pleased with this run.

[Scandinavian High.]

Looking cold high to the north low to the south cold easterly Steve looks to be right on this cold moving west.

[Purga]

GFS 06z looking much better in FI

Thermals at the ready!

Edited December 29, 2016 by Purga

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with 6z!! Thinking parts of Scotland will be really quite snowy as we move through the 1st week of January..

Big upgrade compared to earlier runs and I particularly like the angle of the low pressure in the Atlantic. It is not threatening the block.

 

[West is Best]

Crikey. It's a long time since we've seen a polar low and it's not in particularly outlandish timeframe.

The models look to me to have significantly upgraded for cold over the past 24 hours. I think we're coming into a major pattern change that isn't about to budge out of the way. It's also often the case that UK snow events occur best on the battle front. That's a nerve-wracking process for us coldies but the rewards can exceed the pain.

Belter of a run.

[northwestsnow]

Glorious gfs6z!! Cold snow ice...looks quite similar to ecm det.

Cmon meto, upgrade !!!

[radiohead]

Prospect of snow over a wide area here...

[Luke Attwood]

Enormous cold pool to the east, let's hope it moves Westwards!

[blizzard81]

Snowmageddon on the 06z for first full weekend of Jan - and no, I'm not referring to the north east US lol.

[Tim Bland]

Nice 06Z run snow wise for the East ! that low hugs the east cost and snow keeps falling !

 

 

[Paul_1978]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

can we move on from this please, it's not model output discussion....thanks

Agreed not in the truest sense of the word, but in my view totally relevant to the thread. Anyway no worries I will say no more.

As for the 06z output, it is interesting that the Azores low develops more significantly than on the 00z run in that it pushes east into Portugal/Spain by T+153, whereas on the previous run it was prevented from migrating eastwards.

By T+213 it appears that the Atlantic high is not able to push eastwards as easily and thus not centred over the UK, leaving us in a better northerly flow for longer.

[SMU]

27 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Don't take it personally Steve.

Knocker has access to more info than most of us due to his subscription to WB

Pattern matching is an awful method but clearly as has been mentioned there is evidence to support your claims. 

 

Mate I dont really think you understand- its not pattern matching.

Anyway- Did I mention a screaming jet going southwards- & deep cold moving west-

try the GFS 06z its almost identical...

 

[stewfox]

42 minutes ago, EML Network said:

I honestly can't understand why everyone is so upbeat this morning, either I'm reading the charts wrong, Or i've woken up miserable or I've woken up in an alternate universe. 

Gone are the charts that were showing a more sustained colder period and this morning we have woken to see a firming up on the ensemble cluster 06z Leicestershire ensembles

 

It's pretty certain that this weekend we start to get a temporary plunge of colder air, which clears away early next week , but it's becoming clear that next week things are going to warm up slightly although it will still be fairly chilly at the surface and then it's simply a case of rinse repeat, more or less the same pattern we have been stuck in ALL WINTER LONG !!
 

 

Maybe post the charts you see

I'm a optimist, half full

I see a 15c drop in current 850s for your location in the next week with strong model support and then the same kind of drop a short time after and then La la land.

I didn't see this 'pattern' in December. It will be interesting to see how  the second drop develops in the next few days. Could see 850s 18c less then you have now and yes I know re 2m etc but 7/1 we can see sub -5c far further to our west cf yesterday and cold air staying longer see GFs 6z with more -10c air at 9/1 and -10c 850s over whole of uk by 10/1 supporting charts attached. BOOM time

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by stewfox

[bluearmy]

looks like we may manage an undercut on a GFS op but that would be more to do with the big amplification showing. Would have liked to see less amplification and then an undercut as that would be reasonably significant given the current direction of ens travel.