Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[snowbob]

Believed the snow threat for south was fri

[nick sussex]

Just now, radiohead said:

At  T72 the ECM isn't quite as good as GFS in terms of upper air temperature.

Its much better upstream though, ne USA with the PV orientation and the GFS has the shortwave already trying to flatten the ridge. Quite some difference at just T72hrs.

[Met4Cast]

The South on Thursday was never in the running to see snowfall, it was always likely to be rain, perhaps back edge snowfall anyway.

ECM sticking with the more amplified theme upstream it seems, should follow on to be a good run for coldies. 

[Nouska]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM follows the 12Z HIRLAM, shows that little low embedded in the flow at 48 hours...

I saved this from the EC ensemble means run a few days ago as was intrigued by what the little red dot of uncertainty represented - just on the west coast of Ireland and the little kink coming in behind.

[radiohead]

Just now, Nouska said:

I saved this from the EC ensemble means run a few days ago as was intrigued by what the little red dot of uncertainty represented - just on the west coast of Ireland and the little kink coming in behind.

Certainly something to look out for.

[chris55]

ECM will be an important run tonight i think, if it sticks to it's easterly development, as it has has for a fair few runs now, then that will somewhat cement the evolution, we shall see. Looking good at 72.

[bradymk]

ECM best at 96 again, much more amplified over Atlantic, all good again so far.

[chicken soup]

12 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM follows the 12Z HIRLAM, shows that little low embedded in the flow at 48 hours...

Is that low a good thing or bad.

[SteveB]

Just now, chicken soup said:

Is that low a good thing or bad.

Good, wrapped up in cold air, should deliver snow!

[chris55]

A bit more amplified than UKMO at 96

[tight isobar]

Nice slack flow around Iceland. .

And slightly better aligned...

Should' be good for initial wrap of heights! !!!

[MR EXTREMES]

10 minutes ago, radiohead said:

At  T72 the ECM isn't quite as good as GFS in terms of upper air temperature.

That's fine nothing wrong with that have faith this time people 

[Mucka]

Fantastic consistency from ECM

Just a little bit further West and more amplified for perfection  please

[chris55]

Nice ridge to the north, slightly disconnected but i dont see that as a problem, easterly looking good from here!

Edited January 10, 2017 by chris55

[radiohead]

12Z ECM 120

Edited January 10, 2017 by radiohead

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Good, wrapped up in cold air, should deliver snow!

runs across sw Ireland and then just past cornwall as an open wave. snow for exmoor

[SteveB]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

runs across sw Ireland and then just past cornwall as an open wave. snow for exmoor

If it stays on that track!

Edited January 10, 2017 by SteveB

[nick sussex]

These might seem like very small differences on a global scale but do make a difference moving forward. The ECM at T72hrs is a bit more amplified over the ne of Canada. The GFS is flatter and you'll see that shortwave circled that's already trying to flatten the ridge to the west of the UK.

ECM                                                                GFS

 

[chris55]

Looking good!!!! Can that azores Low undercut!

 

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by chris55

[Day 10]

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

runs across sw Ireland and then just past cornwall as an open wave. snow for exmoor

What time frame? 

[Mucka]

Brilliant 144

#

Can we trap that low moving N into Scandinavia and bring it back West?

That would make for a much better and potentially snowier Easterly.

Also upstream in the Atlantic looks a little better with maybe less energy riding over the block later.

[Ali1977]

Fantastic 144, cmon ECM bring it home. 

[A Frayed Knot]

[Day 10]

So the three at 144 to compare in order GFS, UKMO, ECM