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Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Not good!!

D8A9893C-E00F-480A-9A20-97CAB5D58E90.png

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Griff
Griff

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Paul
Paul

A new thread, for posting and discussing tweets about the forecast models currently. Please only post tweets in this thread, not the main model or banter threads.  The reason for this change is t

Griff
Griff

Posted Images

Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

 

snowbunting Enthusiast

snowbunting

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
Posted
On 15/12/2017 at 12:02, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Following is tweet from Michael Ventrice.
 
 
 
 
 
Talk about agreement between the end of the ECMWF EPS and GEFS for Day 15; The explosion of heights over Alaska in through the North Pole is very encouraging signature for a Wintry start to 2018.
 
Embedded
Embedded

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

  • Like 1
joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
15 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

Put it simply.They just watch it play out and change as much as the forecast.

bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 hour ago, snowbunting said:

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

He is talking about the USA, not europe

the big news over the next fortnight will be the cold in the states 

the strat vortex returning over the pole is nothing to do with the Alaskan ridge - they are not mutually exclusive 

Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

I also wonder whether their terminology for blocked includes mid-latitude as well as polar blocking so difficult to determine the type of pattern their modeling is seeing.

  • Like 3
Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

Alleluia! Winter's not over then! :D

bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Pretty sure that blocked is more likely to be MLB than HLB - otherwise it would have a more wintry connotation in the tweet 

  • Like 1
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty sure that blocked is more likely to be MLB than HLB - otherwise it would have a more wintry connotation in the tweet 

That was my fear, too!

blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Of course! A mild outlier :)

blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
22 hours ago, phil nw. said:

I also wonder whether their terminology for blocked includes mid-latitude as well as polar blocking so difficult to determine the type of pattern their modeling is seeing.

I often think this too. To just say blocking is way too vague and to be quite honest is a bit of a cop out. It amounts to "no meat on any bones" terminology. Most laymen wouldn't even know what they meant by "blocking" anyway. 

bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Why would a reputable weather company tweet the details of an operational gfs run post day 8 and highlight it as being against general model guidance ??

jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Why would a reputable weather company tweet the details of an operational gfs run post day 8 and highlight it as being against general model guidance ??

Click bait

bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Click bait

should we be self regulating the stuff that ends up in here then ?  after all, anyone can tweet any old nonsense

jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

should we be self regulating the stuff that ends up in here then ?  after all, anyone can tweet any old nonsense

Not sure - I have around 40 people on ignore. I like the tweets thread and don't take the one quoted seriously. Need to allow people to make their own mistakes at some point, I guess :-)

fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

CC0609D0-9166-4D59-9269-893EAA370A53.png

Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Wow, that would be some fall!

Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted

Ian Fergusson tweet with insight into Euro4 and ECMWF snowfall forecasts:

 

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