South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[karlos1983]

18.3mm of rain so far for May, that should double in the next 24-36 hours. 

Any chance of Thundery activity tomorrow?

Edited May 16, 2017 by karlos1983

[SteveB]

Over 40mm for May already and 90% of that has been in the last 4 day's

Could be looking at 80mm+ before months end....

[Mapantz]

Quite a shunt eastwards on the NetWx model:

And quite a shunt westwards on the latest Arpege:

Edited May 16, 2017 by Mapantz

[karlos1983]

54 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Quite a shunt eastwards on the NetWx model:

And quite a shunt westwards on the latest Arpege:

incredible divergence given the timescales we are talking about here.

 

[SteveB]

Very rarely do they get it right, when I saw the one posted earlier I thought at time  - I bet that changes....

[Mapantz]

It's quite funny really, every model I could find, showed some very good consistency when viewed back on Saturday/Sunday. And less than 24 hours out, they all show divergence.

The MetO map can be added to that list as well;

Edited May 16, 2017 by Mapantz

[karlos1983]

I think it comes down to the fact that the models still don't like it when there is any Northern Blocking in the forecast, creates a lot of uncertainties in the modelling.   

[Andy Bown]

What happens with the developing LOW and waving fronts tomorrow will greatly impact Thursday across our region. The further West developments occur will mean a slower clearance (if at all) by Thursday morning. I would not be surprised if there is still a lot of frontal cloud lingering in the Eastern half of our region on Thursday which will impact on what otherwise could be a fascinating convective day.

[knocker]

Sky obscured, thick fog, slight rain, and a breeze from the SW

[MattTarrant]

38 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it comes down to the fact that the models still don't like it when there is any Northern Blocking in the forecast, creates a lot of uncertainties in the modelling.   

I think it has much to do with the interaction with the strong jet stream overhead. The extent of upper air divergence and thus low level divergence is making the area of very heavy precipitation difficult to forecast. 'Wavey' fronts are notoriously hard to forecast, especially when there is such humid & moisture laden air involved!

[Mapantz]

This is now the start of off-on off-on rain, until the front reinvigorates. 0.6mm so far

[Dorsetbred]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

incredible divergence given the timescales we are talking about here.

 

They both would be correct, as we sit in the middle, so ones to the east of us, the other is to the west..

[Dorsetbred]

Some intense rainfall now showing up in Northern Biscay, bring it on...

[MP-R]

Even today there has been way more rain than first anticipated here. Wasn't expecting that much at all until later in the day but the reality is it's been raining on and off all day again. Very much a nowcasting 'event' of sorts.

[Dorsetbred]

Pompey getting some decent orographic rainfall as the moisture charges over the IOW downs and heads towards Pompey..

[ARTDEMOLE]

Light drizzle. Calm. 14·4c

[knocker]

Cloudy with St; very slight rain; mist;temp 11C and a light northerly breeze

[Dorsetbred]

Plenty of moisture around this morning, mist base is really low, in some places lower than 100ft, as some of the local buildings have lost their "tops".

 

[lettice]

1.2mm rain yesterday, mostly around 7-9pm.
8.8mm so far today from noon till 5am.
Lowest temp overnight was 14.1c at 4am.

Dry now, grey and cloudy.
16.1c, 1017.9 hPa, ENE wind 3mph, 97% humidity.
 

[karlos1983]

precip rates of 4.5mm p/hr at the minute, almost up to 10mm already.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Light rain. giving 5.1mm this morning. Humidity95%rh. Temperature 13.6c..

[karlos1983]

had 15mm since 9am, my rain gauge not in a prime position so it's probably more than that to be honest.

[Mapantz]

My Netatmo rain gauge is reading a tad more than my Davis. I'll have to check it against my manual gauge when I get back home.

There hasn't really been any heavy rain, just steady moderate rain.

Edited May 17, 2017 by Mapantz

[karlos1983]

Similar on mine, that's reassuring 

 

[knocker]

Brighter here now with a layer of Sc and a little St. Rain ceased some time ago.